NFL draft: Ezekiel Elliott up, Joey Bosa down before OSU pro day?
On Friday, the biggest pro day of the 2016 NFL draft cycle will take place at Ohio State, and it’s possible that the Buckeyes’ two highest-drafted prospects — defensive end Joey Bosa and running back Ezekiel Elliott — don’t turn in a full workout.
Twenty-two players in all will showcase their skills for scouts, and it’s a big day for most. In the cases of Bosa and Elliott, believed to be the first two Buckeyes likely to be selected in April, they probably don’t have much to gain or lose. But that doesn’t mean that their stocks might not be going in different directions.
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Bosa, who at one point during the process was considered to be a potential No. 1 overall pick, appears to be on the slight decline. Elliott, always considered a first-round pick, now might not get out of the top 10 now.
It’s possible that Bosa and Elliott end up being picked very close in Round 1.
Shutdown Corner spoke with two evaluators from teams (neither of whom were with the Tennessee Titans, owners of the first pick) that interviewed Bosa at the NFL scouting combine who said they didn’t believe he’d go No. 1.
Why? Both, for different reasons, felt that Bosa was a good player and worthy of taking high in the draft. But perhaps not as a true game-changer. And there’s also his personality, which might not be an ideal fit for everyone. When it comes to splitting hairs on prospects in the top 10, NFL teams will weigh every factor. Including, yes, how they present themselves.
“It’s just the way he talks, [he] gives the vibe of — he’s so laid back,” one college director said. “He’s not unlikable. We sat down with him. He seems to like football a lot. His teammates like him. That all checks out. But for certain coaches, certain organizations, it’s maybe not a perfect match. Others might be completely fine [with it].”
[NFL free agency starts Wednesday. Here are Shutdown Corner’s free-agent rankings for offensive players and for defensive players and specialists. Here are the top needs for all 32 NFL teams.]
The other evaluator didn’t disagree about Bosa’s personality exactly but said it was more about Bosa the player, that he felt he had good traits, very good even — but perhaps not rare ones.
“I think he’s Chris Long, all right? And Chris Long was really good for, what, six, seven years, right?” he said. “[Bosa] has big hands and he uses them well. He’s stronger than his numbers. Plays to the whistle, past it even. Plays hard. Plays with force.
“But is he going to be a 12-sack guy? I don’t know, not every year anyway. There’s a spot for him in our league for a long time. I’m not sure that’s in my definition of the top three, four [picks], but he’s a real good one.
“If he turns out to be Justin Smith or [Michael] Bennett with Seattle, I’ll admit I am wrong. Smith was special. Bennett is special. I’m not quite there [on Bosa].”
Meanwhile, Elliott, at the much-maligned running back position, might be gaining traction. The free-agent money spent at the position — and remember, these are second NFL contracts — has been surprising in some cases. Teams might be slowly shifting back toward the run game some. Neither evaluator we spoke to for this had much bad to say about Elliott, believing him to be a three-down starter from Day 1, in the same vein of Todd Gurley last season once he was deemed healthy.
“I watched one three-play [span] where he ran for a first, stoned a blitzer and then made a one-handed catch, all in a row,” the college director said. “That’s our game right now. He does it all.”
The second evaluator lamented that Elliott took some big shots the past two seasons and that he might not be a 2,500-carry back in his career such Frank Gore or Adrian Peterson, “but other than that, no real weakness in his game.”
The draft landscape has changed in the opening days of free agency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, owners of the fifth pick overall, have bolstered their defensive line with the addition of Malik Jackson and could continue seeking veteran help there, seemingly eliminating them from Bosa consideration. Meanwhile, a team that suddenly could be seeking RB help, the Philadelphia Eagles, traded DeMarco Murray away, don’t appear totally smitten with Ryan Matthews and suddenly own the eighth pick in the draft via a trade with the Miami Dolphins.
Could Bosa slide to the sixth (Baltimore Ravens) or seventh (San Francisco 49ers) pick? Is Elliott gone by No. 8 — or will he even be there?
The Dallas Cowboys are sitting at No. 4 and have been quiet in free agency. They’ve pretty much ruled out a quarterback. A linebacker such as UCLA’s Myles Jack would be awfully tempting, sure. But are they really going to go into the season with an RB depth chart headed up by Darren McFadden, Robert Turbin and Rod Smith? The best way to give Tony Romo the “four or five seasons” owner Jerry Jones said he thinks his quarterback has left is to add a workhorse back who can do it all.
“Maybe they see him as their next Emmitt [Smith], I’m not sure,” said the first evaluator, almost reluctant to consider the idea of what such a talented a back might do running behind the best offensive line in the game. “Do they love him at 4? We’ll see.”
Maybe Smith himself does. This was from last year after Elliott’s incredible four-game run against rival Michigan, Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, and Alabama and Oregon in the 2014 College Football Playoff victories.
Ohio State’s pro day is not going to have a big effect on the draft value of Bosa or Elliott, really. This event is more for players such as defensive tackle Adolphus Washington, cornerback Eli Apple, safety Vonn Bell, offensive guard Chase Farris, wide receiver Jalin Marshall, linebacker Joshua Perry and safety Tyvis Powell to name a few Buckeyes who have more volatile stocks and more to prove.
But that doesn’t mean that there hasn’t been a slight cooling since the combine on Bosa, and a warming up to the idea that Elliott could go even higher than Gurley, who was the 10th overall pick a year ago.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm
