Recapping NL LABR: Stacking Dodgers
LABR (League Of Alternative Baseball Reality) has been around for 23 years and is one of the biggest in the industry. I flew to Phoenix to participate in the NL-Only in person auction Sunday night, and while I understand few want to read about another’s fantasy team, I’ll use the results (which can be found here) as a starting point to go over general auction strategy as well as a way to talk about specific players. Remember, this is a 12-team, National League only league, so the rosters are going to look very different than your usual mixed format.
Typically in “Only” leagues, I like to spread the wealth (it’s much easier to go stars and scrubs in mixed), as it’s extremely difficult to fill your roster with starters otherwise. In other words, at-bats are a commodity, and an injury to a star player hurts even worse, as the waiver wire is a wasteland. In this particular auction, I didn’t buy a single $30 player, although I purchased four who were $24+, which is more than usual for me and had me scrambling down the stretch. Of course any strategy can work if you execute it right (I’ve seen someone win this format spending $9 on their nine pitcher slots).
Before we get into the details, it’s important to remember that auctions typically fluctuate far more than drafts, as the prices of certain players have a lot to do with when they were nominated (and who else was available at their position at the time). It’s much easier to pinpoint a terrible “buy” than a poor draft pick after the fact. Timing is simply huge when it comes to auctions.
I typically like to throw out star players whom I don’t want early on to get money off the table (or players at a position that I’ve already filled), but there’s an argument otherwise that suggests you should nominate your targets instead. That way you know what it will cost to get the guys you want, and if they are above what you’re willing to pay, then you have more time to shift plans.
Speaking of targets, one of mine was Corey Seager, whom I expect to have a big year. He’s easily the best prospect in baseball and hit .337 last year in the big leagues (albeit in just 98 at bats) with a 19:14 K:BB ratio. The kid can rake and will be batting in a loaded lineup. Seager also plays shortstop, a position that drops off precipitously after him in the National League, and that was before Jhonny Peralta’s injury. Then again, positional scarcity means less in “Only” leagues.
I actually ended up with a whopping five Dodgers hitters (and I’m a Giants fan), including Yasiel Puig, who was another target. He’s struggled some over the past couple years while suffering some injuries, but he’s two seasons removed from posting a .319/.391/.534 line (160 wRC+) as a 23-year-old. While not quite as young, that path sounds an awful lot like Bryce Harper’s. Puig lost weight during the offseason as well as a manager he clashed with, and his ADP is 66.3. Remember, Puig was a second round pick just last year.
It’s not easy to fill two catcher spots (especially when someone buys three of them and makes a bid on a fourth, which happened in LABR) in this format, as it’s simple math – there are only 15 starting catchers in the National League, and there are 24 spots to be filled. It’s also tough to spend a lot of money on a position that doesn’t produce the stats all others do. While many like to remain patient and hold onto their money in auctions, so they can control the endgame, there’s a flip side to this. Travis d’Arnaud was thrown out early, and he went for $14 before the market for catchers was set. This resulted in guys like Wilson Ramos, Yasmani Grandal and Wellington Castillo all going for at least as much later on. I’d much prefer d’Arnaud.
Clayton Kershaw is obviously in a class of his own in pitching and should be considered in the same tier as Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt (both in auctions and drafts), and Max Scherzer is in tier two by himself. And then, there’s a next clear tier of Jake Arrieta, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey, Jacob DeGrom, Gerrit Cole, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Greinke (talking NL here). Among those nine, every one went between $24-$29. Then there’s a decent size drop off, with Adam Wainwright ($18), Johnny Cueto ($19) and Jon Lester ($18) the next likely candidates. I felt it important to grab one of those big 11, and I came away with Syndergaard, who was the cheapest ($24) of the bunch.
I’m not sure why Jonathan Papelbon is just the 12th closer off the board in Yahoo drafts so far, as he’s “proven” and has strong job security for a team that projects to be one of the best in baseball. They also figure to do it with pitching more than scoring, so there should be a ton of save opportunities. Papelbon owns a career 2.35 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and while he has lost a bit of velocity of late, he started inducing a lot more groundballs last season while still getting a 12.4 SwStr%. Maybe all that mileage on his arm will catch up to him, and I get he’s an unlikable fella, but I thought $14 was cheap.
Quick Hits: Rasiel Iglesias’ 19.2 K-BB% last year would’ve ranked 13th in MLB had he qualified, ahead of Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke and Dallas Kuechel, to name a few. He’s everyone’s favorite sleeper, so I was surprised I was able to grab him for $13 (the same can be said for Steven Matz, who went for the same price)…Wei-Yin Chen just posted a 3.34 ERA while pitching in the AL East and in an extreme hitter’s park. He’ll now be joining the NL and a park that suppressed homers by 28% (only AT&T Park was more extreme), although they are moving the fences in. Grabbing him for $10 felt like a steal…I somehow had too much money left on the table with just one roster spot available when there were only $1-3 players left, which is a huge mistake. Not wanting to leave money on the table (although I obviously effectively did), I opened my final bid at $9 for Hunter Strickland, someone who would’ve otherwise gone $3 max. I like Strickland, but for reference, Santiago Casilla earlier went for $8. The lesson as usual, is I’m an idiot.
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