Four teams opponents should want in their section of the bracket
When CBS unveils the NCAA tournament bracket on Sunday, every coach will respond by describing his team’s opening-round opponent as though they were the Golden State Warriors.
Don’t believe them if they draw one of the struggling teams below.
[Yahoo Tourney Pick’em is open. Sign up now and play for $50K]
Iowa, Providence, South Carolina and Maryland are each limping into the NCAA tournament after fading down the stretch in February and March. All four are capable of winning an NCAA tournament game or two — and Maryland in particular has the talent to make an even deeper run — but all four are also favorable draws relative to the other teams likely on their seed line.
IOWA (21-9, 12-6): As recently as a few weeks ago, Iowa was atop the Big Ten standings and within striking distance of a No. 1 seed. Since then, the Hawkeyes have dropped five of their last seven games, plummeting to a third-place tie in the Big Ten and a No. 5 or 6 seed in mock brackets. The biggest issues for Iowa are its over-reliance on all-conference forward Jarrod Uthoff and co-star Peter Jok, an inability to generate easy transition baskets and a lack of production from its bench. The Hawkeyes have shot 41.1 percent from the field in their last seven games and 33.6 percent from behind the arc. Uthoff hadn’t approached 50 percent from the field for eight straight games before a dominant 11-for-19 shooting night against Michigan. Could the 10-point road win over the Wolverines be a turning point for Iowa entering the Big Ten tournament? Perhaps. But a Big Ten assistant who has scouted Iowa recently told Yahoo Sports the Hawkeyes look fatigued. (Projected seed: No. 5)
SOUTH CAROLINA (24-7, 11-7): In a conference overrun with underachieving teams, South Carolina had been the rare exception. The Gamecocks exceeded preseason expectations by racking up wins against a soft non-conference schedule and storming to an 8-3 start in SEC play. Lately, however, cracks in South Carolina’s feel-good season have been forming. The Gamecocks lost 4 of 6 to close the season largely because their offensive rebounding prowess could no longer hide their scoring woes. In its four most recent losses, three of which have come against non-NCAA tournament contenders, South Carolina has shot an anemic 35.8 percent from the field. Starting guards P.J. Dozier and Sindarius Thornwell are both shooting well below 40 percent from the field on the season. South Carolina does excel defensively and on the offensive glass, but if the Gamecocks encounter a team that rebounds well enough to limit their second-chance points, they’ll be in trouble. (Projected seed: No. 9)
PROVIDENCE (22-9, 10-8): Here’s a list of teams Providence has beaten since late-January: Georgetown by 4. Georgetown by 3. DePaul by 21. Creighton by 4. St. John’s by 14. So not only have the Friars gone just 5-6 down down the stretch this season, they have not beaten an NCAA tournament contender in six weeks. That’s the sign of a team that overachieved in the first half of the season but perhaps peaked too early. Providence has arguably the Big East’s two best individual players in point guard Kris Dunn and forward Ben Bentil, but the supporting cast around that duo is erratic at best. Third leading scorer Rodney Bullock has only scored more than 10 points three times in his last 12 games, while nobody else on the roster averages more than 7.2 points. Also alarming is Providence’s anemic 31.5 percent 3-point shooting. Opponents have learned that if you wall off the paint, keep Dunn out of the lane and force the Friars to make jump shots, you can beat them. (Projected seed: No. 8)
MARYLAND (24-7, 12-6): If you have to face a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament, you could do worse than Maryland, a preseason Final Four favorite that has one of the nation’s most talented starting fives but has faded a bit down the stretch. The Terps dropped four of six to end the regular season including a bewildering loss to woeful Minnesota. They’re only No. 24 in the latest Ken Pomeroy rankings, not terrible by any means but not great either for a team that still could receive as high as a No. 3 or 4 seed with a decent Big Ten tournament showing. One problem for Maryland is that star point guard Melo Trimble struggled late in the season, especially with his outside shot. Another is that the Terps are playing Robert Carter and Diamond Stone together in the frontcourt, which often clogs up the lane and forces Jake Layman to play small forward instead of his preferred power forward. A mobile, fast-paced opponent that can spread the floor, isolate a favorable matchup and drive the ball can give Maryland issues. (Projected seed: No. 4)
– – – – – – –
Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
