Auston Matthews' year abroad ends; next: NHL
After making the unprecedented move for a U.S. or Canadian-born draft-eligible player to play his draft season as a professional in Europe, Auston Matthews’ season has come to a surprising early end. His ZSC Lions were defeated by Bern on Thursday, completing a shocking sweep in the first round of the Swiss National League A playoffs. The Lions were the top team in the league during the regular season.
Matthews finished the series with three assists over the four games he played in during the postseason. That his draft-eligible season is over on March 10 is a bit unfortunate, but unlikely to do much to change his projection as the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft.
It should be noted that Matthews still will have the opportunity to represent Team USA at the IIHF World Championships this spring. Jack Eichel, who was selected second overall in the last draft, accepted Team USA’s invite last year and performed well at the Worlds. Considering how early Matthews’ pro season concluded, it might make sense for him to go for some more reps against professionals and for one last showcase before the draft in June.
There was some debate about whether or not Matthews did the right thing by eschewing offers from top college programs in the U.S. and a chance to play major junior with the Everett Silvertips in the Western Hockey League, in favor of going pro a year early. There may be even more now that the season is done.
So let’s take a look at how this most unique of draft seasons went…
1. Did Matthews make the right call by playing in Europe?
The first thing we have to remember about Matthews’ decision is that he was born just two days after the cutoff for last year’s draft. You also have to consider his pro-style frame and the two years of junior hockey he played as a member of the U.S. National Team Development Program, which also plays a slate of games against Division I colleges. He had already mastered that level of hockey.
The conditions were perfect for Matthews to try this. That’s not going to be the case for most players.
One of the perks to going to Zurich specifically, was head coach Marc Crawford, who won a Stanley Cup as head coach of the Avalanche. Matthews has made strides in his all-around game, getting better defensively while not losing any bite from his offensive game. He’s better today than he was going into the league.
Despite some pressure from Finnish standouts Jesse Pulujarvi and Patrik Laine, Matthews is still expected to be the No. 1 pick in the draft. His draft stock didn’t seem to suffer a bit from being away from the largest base of NHL scouts. It also might have helped him from having his game nitpicked to death as he has largely avoided the draft hubbub Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel drew last year.
The only real concern is a short-term one. With the lack of games he ended up playing this year, teams could be concerned about his ability to transition into the 82-game NHL marathon. If that’s the biggest concern, though, it’s not the kind that would prevent him from being the No. 1 pick.
Based on his production and development, it looks like he made the right call.
Auston Matthews had a historic run in the Swiss league. (Getty Images)
2. Matthews produced at a ridiculous rate for a teenager in European pro hockey
Matthews ended up appearing in 36 regular season games with the Lions. He scored 24 goals and finished with 46 points in league play. His 1.28 points-per-game average was second in the league behind former NHLer Pierre-Marc Bouchard. Matthews reportedly finished second behind Bouchard in MVP voting as well, with Matthews earning the league’s “rising star award.”
No player under the age of 20 in the history of the NLA produced at as high a per-game rate as Matthews did this year, according to eliteprospects.com. None has even averaged over a point per game over a full season. That shouldn’t be overly surprising, considering Matthews is probably the best NHL prospect ever to grace the ice in Switzerland’s top pro leagues.
For a little extra context: Looking back at the lockout season, a trio of high-profile, young NHL players played in the NLA. John Tavares produced 1.50 points per game, Tyler Seguin hit 1.38 and Patrick Kane had rate of 1.15. All three already had multiple NHL seasons under their belts at the time they spent the lockout in Switzerland. For Matthews to be ahead of one and not terribly far off from the other two is pretty impressive at his age.
Additionally, a teenager averaging over a point-per-game in any of the major European leagues is extremely rare. According to eliteprospects.com, only seven players ever averaged over a point-per-game as an under-20 player in the Swedish Hockey League. There have been 25 in the Finnish Liiga, but I counted only four since 1993-94. The numbers for both of those leagues drop significantly when you look at players under 19 (zero in Liiga and two in the SHL). It has never happened in the KHL.
All of those leagues are considered tougher than the NLA, but there just isn’t a whole lot of precedence for what Matthews did this season.
3. Matthews can still boost his stock for Team North America’s World Cup roster
Having the season end now is not ideal for Matthews, but it gives him time to continue training off the ice, building up strength. It also will leave him time to jump into the World Championship fresh. If Matthews accepts the invitation he is sure to get, he could end up being a featured forward for Team USA while playing against pros, including NHLers, in Russia in May.
The Americans went way young with their roster last year and won bronze. They won’t be shy about giving Matthews a big role in that tournament.
By that time, we’ll already know which team won the NHL’s draft lottery. They’ll probably already have a good idea who they’re taking, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be anything to prove for Matthews. He still has a shot at making Team North America for the World Cup, though GM Peter Chiarelli said that the draft-eligible forward had an uphill battle to make the team.
A good showing at the Worlds a month before final rosters are due (June 1) for the World Cup of Hockey could go a long way to getting him a spot on the team of young guns.
4. Which team has the best shot at landing Matthews?
The NHL’s new draft lottery rules for this season really put Matthews up for grabs. The last place team has the best odds to pick first, but that’s only a 20 percent chance. There’s a 47.5 percent chance they pick fourth overall, which is as far as the team with the worst record can fall. Under the old rules, the last place team could pick no lower than second overall.
There’s little incentive to tank like teams did last season. It’s also even less predictable as to where the picks will fall, but in all likelihood, though, Matthews – a Scottsdale, Arizona native – is going to be playing his NHL hockey in Canada.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a four-point cushion on last place. The Edmonton Oilers are currently second-to-last and have a realistic shot at picking first overall for the fifth time since 2010. The Winnipeg Jets and Calgary Flames are next in line. If all things remain the same, that’s four teams north of the border with a shot at landing the American star. After that quartet, it’s the Buffalo Sabres and after them, the most interesting option emerges.
Lurking in 25th place in the league is the Arizona Coyotes. After falling well out of the playoff race and really struggling down the stretch, their odds of getting the hometown kid are rising. Matthews discovered hockey thanks to the Coyotes and his uncle’s season tickets to see the team play. What a story it would be if he were to land in a franchise that would have the marketing tool of their dreams.
It would take some fortunate bounces of the lottery ball, but maybe the Coyotes are due a good bounce. We should know the lottery order by next month.
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