The Numbers Game: Usage Rates by Position

In one of my first Numbers Game columns this season, I discussed ‘The Fantasy Value of Usage’ and found that usage rates (the percentage of a team’s offensive possessions ‘used’ by a player while on the court) correlate strongly with overall fantasy values.

This isn’t a surprise, since players who are heavily involved offensively have a greater chance to rack up points, heavily-weighted FT%, etc. It’s not a perfect metric, as it discounts defensive stats while counting turnovers as a ‘used’ possession (going forward I might switch to turnover-adjusted rates), but it is nevertheless quite helpful. Usage rates can be viewed as a bellwether statistic — where you find high or increasing usage, you’re likely to find high or increasing fantasy values.

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As a refresher, here’s how usage rates looked across the top-150 players during the 2014-15 season:

For today’s column, I’m focusing on players’ production since the All-Star break, with an emphasis on individual positions. Players who have appeared in fewer than four games during that span are excluded, as are players averaging fewer than 15 minutes per game. That left a group of 268 players, which I narrowed down to the top-150 with the usual application of aggregated z-scores. This time I’m looking at 9-cat values.

Before looking at usage rates for the top-150 as a whole, let’s break things down by position. We’ll begin with point guards.

Just a glance at this chart tells you that high usage rates will positively correlate to overall 9-cat values, or at least they have for point guards since the All-Star break. Elite guys like Damian Lillard and Stephen Curry have monstrous usage rates, and the top nine PGs all have usage north of 25%. The multiple correlation coefficient, which measures the strength of the association, came out at a robust 0.538, which confirms the eye-test. I’ll discuss that later, but for now let’s see if the results hold up for other positions:

Shooting Guards:

Small Forwards:

Power Forwards:

Centers:

With the exception of centers, the pattern is undeniable — higher usage rates tend to accompany (if not cause) higher 9-cat fantasy values. Centers derive much of their value from rebounds and blocks, as well as efficient use of however many shot attempts they get, so it’s not a surprise to see them less beholden to usage. Even DeMarcus Cousins, who has been among the league leaders in usage all season long, isn’t completely cashing in on all those touches since the break — the reason is that he’s shooting 67.7% from the FT line and, more importantly, averaging a whopping 5.0 turnovers in his past nine games. If we tossed out the ‘usage’ created by those turnovers, or examined his value in an 8-cat format, he’d look a lot better. Context is always important. To drive home the overall point, though, let’s look at the top-150 as a whole.

Here’s a breakdown of the multiple correlation coefficients for each position — the higher the number, the stronger the association between usage and 9-cat value.

Point guards and shooting guards have a strong positive correlation, with small forwards and power forwards just a bit behind. Identifying high-usage players is therefore a worthwhile pursuit for fantasy purposes — among the 75 players with the highest rates, there are 11 who are owned in less than 60% of Yahoo! leagues. They are Norris Cole, Isaiah Canaan, Patty Mills, D.J. Augustin, Shabazz Muhammad, Mario Chalmers, Mirza Teletovic, Nikola Jokic, David Lee, Lance Stephenson and Dennis Schroder. Some of those guys just need more playing time, like Schroder and Shabazz, but most of them are already viable adds in standard formats. This column may also help inform your strategies when drafting next season, or building a dynasty squad, as high-usage players have a built-in buffer against slumps and inconsistency. If you have any questions or insights, you can always send me a message on Twitter @Knaus_RW. Good luck this week!

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