NFL Winners and Losers: Giants, Texans, Jags blow up NFL market
This free-agent class will be historic, and it might not be for any on-field accomplishments.
For years and years to come, NFL teams will feel the effects of the enormous contracts that were tossed around when free agency officially started on Wednesday. The market has been completely reset.
Quarterbacks will look at Sam Bradford’s lack of NFL success, or Brock Osweiler’s seven career starts, and expect $18 million a year just like they got with the Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans, respectively.
Running backs will see Chris Ivory’s one 1,000-yard season (1,070 yards at that), and wonder why they aren’t also making $32.5 million over five years, as Ivory got from the Jacksonville Jaguars. Before free agency this year, only six running backs had deals paying more than $4.1 million per season, and now Ivory is beyond $6 million.
Receivers will notice Marvin Jones, and his 1,729 career yards and $8 million per year contract, and wonder why they aren’t making at least that. Only 16 receivers have a contract that averages more than $8 million per season, and Jones doesn’t even have a 1,000-yard season.
Tight ends can wonder how Coby Fleener’s 2,154 yards in four years was worth $7.2 million a year from the New Orleans Saints, a number surpassed by only six NFL tight ends before free agency started.
Offensive linemen who hit the market will notice that Kelechi Osemele’s Oakland Raiders contract worth about $12 million a year, an enormous bump up from the previous high for a guard (Mike Iupati’s $8 million average) and they won’t be settling for $8 million anymore. Osemele will probably play left tackle, but his contract is still enormous.
Defensive linemen will ask for Malik Jackson money, or Olivier Vernon money. Jackson, a heck of a player, still was a starter for just one full season and had 14 career sacks when he got $90 million from the Jaguars. If linemen looking to cash in need more ammunition, it can be Vernon’s $85 million deal with the New York Giants, $52.5 million of which was guaranteed.
Linebackers got some surprising deals too, whether it was Bruce Irvin to the Raiders (four years, $37 million), Danny Trevathan to the Chicago Bears (five years, $35 million) or Mark Barron re-signing with the Los Angeles Rams (five years, $45 million).
Cornerbacks who have more career accomplishments are probably getting their agents on the phone after seeing Janoris Jenkins’ five-year, $62.5 million deal with the Giants. Jenkins has never been to a Pro Bowl. What will Josh Norman ask the Carolina Panthers for when they start talking about a long-term deal?
Safeties will be happy to see Rodney McLeod, an undrafted, solid starter for the Rams, get paid $37 million over five years to go to the Eagles. After Eric Berry sees that what does he ask the Kansas City Chiefs for, a billion dollars? Tashaun Gipson’s five-year, $35.5 million deal with the Jaguars adds to every other safety’s leverage too.
Agents have to love this free-agent class. The bar didn’t get raised, it got launched into space. Try offering a quarterback less than $18 million a year after they’ve seen what Bradford and Osweiler got. Heck, quarterback Chase Daniel got a three-year, $21 million deal with $12 million guaranteed from the Eagles to be a backup. Almost every position got a new outlandish starting point.
It’s hard to blame some teams for the specific deals. There was a ton of cap room to spend around the league. If you look at the Jaguars, for instance, they had two options with Jackson: Do you overpay Jackson or draw a hard line and brag to everyone about how much cap room you have left over? The Jaguars had about $79 million in cap room going into free agency. Hoarding it because you worry Jackson is being overpaid isn’t going to make your on-field product any better.
The cap got bumped up and most teams outside of New Orleans and Buffalo are pretty savvy at not digging themselves into a terrible hole with the salary cap. Players were going to get overpaid and there was no way around that. But make no mistake, there will be a lot of negotiations around the NFL that begin by citing a member of the 2016 free-agent class at the same position. There will also be many players who are suddenly unhappy with their current contracts, which are probably well under the market value after Wednesday.
There’s a ripple effect from this class that will be felt for many years to come. The money that was given out Wednesday was astonishing.
Here are the rest of the winners and losers after the crazy spending on the first official day of NFL free agency:
WINNERS
Bill O’Brien: Give O’Brien a lot of credit, because he’s done very well without much at quarterback. He has gone 9-7 twice, and the Texans didn’t have what anyone would consider a franchise quarterback in either of his two seasons. Last year, they started four quarterbacks and still made the playoffs.
Now O’Brien has a quarterback to work with. At least, he has someone who is being paid like a top quarterback.
Say what you will about Osweiler’s contract, but it’s worth it if he pans out. Young, talented quarterbacks are hard to find in the NFL. Osweiler isn’t just a guy who happened into seven starts last year, he’s a former second-round pick who spent four seasons playing with and learning from Peyton Manning. The Texans also went out and signed running back Lamar Miller, giving them some really good options on offense.
O’Brien did plenty with little at quarterback. Let’s see what he can do with an $18 million a year quarterback. The AFC South got a lot more interesting on Wednesday.
Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson (and everyone else who sat out the day-one madness): On the first day of free agency, Thompson was at University of Wisconsin pro day, scouting prospects. Of course he was.
I’ve been critical of Thompson for his annual habit of almost entirely sitting out free agency, but I don’t blame him for sitting out Wednesday. I think he and the other general managers who sat back and watched the storm might have been the smart ones.
Some teams like the Jaguars and Raiders had so much cap room, it didn’t matter how much they spent. And they mostly got good players. But some teams are really going to feel the effects of Wednesday’s deals for years to come. There was a lot of money spent on players who wouldn’t have gotten half that a year ago.
There are still many good players available. Maybe not the top-shelf free agents, but guys who should settle in at more reasonable contracts and actually provide a good return on investment. It just seems like some smart teams were laying back and waiting for some of the hottest items to end up on the clearance rack later.
Maybe even Thompson will find a good deal or two to help the Packers later on. There are still difference-makers who are unsigned. So if your team was quiet on the first day of free agency, don’t worry. They might end up looking pretty shrewd for it.
Philadelphia Eagles: Usually, when you sign a bad contract you’re stuck with that bad contract. You’re not usually able to dump that contract on someone else. In the NFL, you wait until the contract is somewhat palatable to cut, and then take the hit.
Somehow, the Eagles got rid of two of their worst contracts in less than a week.
First, the Eagles were able to get out of the Byron Maxwell mega-deal by sending him and linebacker Kiko Alonso to the Miami Dolphins. Maxwell had a bad year after signing a six-year, $63 million deal last offseason. They had to give up Alonso’s cheap deal too, but he has dealt with injuries and will be a free agent next year. And the Eagles somehow moved up from 13th to 8thin the first round this year’s draft, switching spots with the Dolphins, and that has great value. That trade is a win for the Eagles.
Philly also sent off running back DeMarco Murray, whose five-year, $40 million deal was looking like an anchor. Murray looked last year like he was feeling every bit of the 497 touches he got in the 2014 season (449 regular season, 48 playoffs). But, for some reason, the Tennessee Titans took Murray even though they were coming off being the worst team in the NFL. Not sure how Murray, who has a large deal and might never be the same player he was two years ago, fits in their rebuilding plan. Dumping the Maxwell and Murray deals were major wins for the Eagles. I’m surprised Eagles executive VP of football operations Howie Roseman pulled it off.
But then …
LOSERS
Philadelphia Eagles: It was funny to hear the reaction of the Daniel signing on Wednesday afternoon, as people excitedly talked about him getting the chance to compete with Sam Bradford for the starting quarterback job.
Um, what?
The Eagles just gave Bradford $36 million over two years. A lot of people have pointed out that the deal really might only be for one year and $22 million (only!) like that’s a bargain for a guy with an 81 career rating. The Eagles gave Daniel a $21 million, three-year deal with $12 million guaranteed. That seems too much to be a backup. Bradford’s deal is way too much for someone who has to compete for a starting job.
This makes little sense, right? Either you like Daniel and think he can start for you, and pay him a deal with $12 million guaranteed, or you still like Bradford and invest in him. It doesn’t seem like the Eagles have a ton of clarity if they’re paying both of them $25 million a year. This isn’t Aaron Rodgers we’re talking about, it’s Bradford and Daniel.
Then again, the Eagles don’t ever seem to have much of a plan. It’s a team that fired Andy Reid, only to hire Reid’s top assistant three years later.
Denver Broncos: They have to be on this list. The Super Bowl champions were leaking oil a few hours into free agency.
Owen Daniels and Louis Vasquez were cut this week, and that doesn’t make Denver better. Jackson and Danny Trevathan signed elsewhere for a mint, weakening the defense. Then the Broncos found themselves without a quarterback, after Osweiler left for the Texans.
John Elway has established himself as one of the NFL’s best general managers in the NFL. He’s really challenged now. He has to figure out his best move at quarterback to start with, and then fill in some sudden holes elsewhere. The Broncos still have a good core, but like most champions, they found their roster picked apart a bit in free agency. The defending champs aren’t nearly as good as they were just a few days ago.
Tom Coughlin: How do you feel if you’re Coughlin today?
Coughlin was forced out of his job after last season. The Giants had been cautious in free agency his last few years, making some signings but rarely giving out a massive deal. So Coughlin took the fall for the Giants not making the playoffs last year … and then the Giants opened up their wallet.
Imagine Coughlin’s reaction when he saw the deals. Jenkins for $62.5 million. Jason Pierre-Paul back at $10.5 million for one year. Damon Harrison over from the New York Jets for about $46 million. Then the topper: Vernon’s unbelievable $85 million deal.
Two hours into free agency, the Giants had given four players $204.25 million with $114 million guaranteed (h/t to Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News). My, oh my.
The Giants obviously are feeling some pressure. They’re clearly a better football team than they were before free agency. And somewhere, Coughlin wonders why the Giants didn’t have that kind of shopping spree when he was coach.
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
