NBA Fantasy Trends: Stats: No Risk on the Ukraine?

If you watch Seinfeld or you play Risk, you look at the Ukraine on a map a little differently than most people. Well, now NBA fans might be feeling differently because Alex Len a.k.a. The Kraine has been put a hurt on the NBA.

In his last five games since being unleashed, he averaged 20.4 points, 14.4 boards, 1.4 blocks, a 27.0 usage rate and a 52.2 true shooting percentage in 35.7 minutes per game. He’s actually below his average for efficiency and it mostly has to do with him making just 29.4 percent on his jumpers. Len actually hit 41.0 percent of his jumpers in February, so he was showing some improvement there. Here’s what his shot chart looks like in that five game span.

The non-restricted shots in the paint are the big problem along with the mid-range shots. The Suns are basically living and dying by Len in the post as their pet play. He even had a career-high six dimes on Sunday with the offense running through him more than ever. Len was still assisted on 61.3 percent of his buckets in this five-game streak, so that should also help him get better shots. Besides the jumpers, he struggled the most off his dribbles.

Obviously the key for Len to keep producing is getting minutes next to Tyson Chandler. Coach Earl Watson did say on the radio they have every intention to keep Len there. The coach added he is going to keep feeding Len inside — that’s obviously been true to this point. The two of them played together for 113 minutes in the last five games and they even had a positive net rating, too.

The moral of the story is we still haven’t even seen the best from Len yet. It would appear there is only a little risk for the center from Ukraine going forward.

Sticking with the Suns, how good is Devin Booker right now? He’s also been more of a passer and he’s had a nice two-man game with Alex Len. In fact, Booker has made a whopping 11.3 passes per game to Booker in the last three games — it was around two per game before this run. He also has 3.7 dimes per game in that span to Len and Tyson Chandler.

In those three games, Booker averaged 25.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 0.7 blocks, 0.3 steals and 2.3 treys on 46.9 percent from the field and 91.7 percent from the line. Here’s what his shot chart looked like:

He is 20 years old. Perhaps even more impressive is that he faced tight defense (defender 0-4 feet away) on 59.1 percent of those shots. Booker still needs to get more drives to the rim, but it’s also worth mentioning only 17.3 percent of his points have come in the fast break. He should be able to get some better shots, which will help increase his consistency.

Perhaps the biggest difference has been his assisted buckets. On the season, Booker was assisted on 62 percent of his makes. In that three-game run, he was assisted just 35 percent of the time. That’s another big indication of how much he’s doing things on his own as a traditional on-ball scorer.

If we did a re-draft for reality, Booker would be a lock to go in the top five and you could even say top three. Even if Brandon Knight (groin) comes back, Booker should still have a terrific finish to his season.

Nugget Nuggets

How about coach Mike Malone? By now I’m sure you’ve seen the Malone defense on the Chandler Parsons inbounds pass on Sunday. If not, here it is (via ESPN on Vine):

His rotations have been pretty funky and Sunday was one of the strangest ones of the year. Basically, Will Barton played the final 11:55 at power forward except for 14 seconds. D.J. Augustin and Emmanuel Mudiay manned the guard spots while Gary Harris a.k.a. Garris was at the three. The man in the middle for that lineup has been really good.

Kenneth Faried has been logging some heavy minutes again and he went off on Sunday. In the OT win on Sunday, the Manimal put up 25 points, 20 boards, one steal and one block in 36 minutes. He played at the five down the stretch, which hasn’t happened quite as much lately. Here are the lineup combinations with at least five minutes since Danilo Gallinari (ankle) went down:

There’s that 12-minute line combination mentioned above in the middle, but it’s only been used in that one game. The only other noteworthy Manimal center lineup was with Darrell Arthur in and Augustin out. On the whole, Faried has logged 22.7 percent of his minutes at center in the last four games and it might be helping his scoring — we’ll get to the other centers shortly. Here’s what his shot chart looks like in the last four:

Obviously the volume and performance at the rim stand out in a big way. In the previous 52 games, the Manimal made 61.1 percent at the rim at a distribution of 72.3 percent. Yes, this isn’t the strongest sample size, but it’s pretty obvious the Nuggets are getting him better shots and a lot has to do with the style of play. In that last four, they’ve increased their points off fast break by four percent while their points off turnovers are actually down 2.6 percent. Their pace isn’t really up in that span, but keep in mind three of their last four are against teams ranking in the bottom 10 for pace on the season.

If you count the game Gallo went down, Faried has averages of 17.6 points, 11.2 boards, 1.4 assists, 0.6 blocks, 0.6 steals and 0.8 turnovers on a 67.9 true shooting percentage and a 21.0 usage rate in his 28.8 minutes. He’s been assisted on 70.3 percent of his buckets and is thriving in a role much like the one he had before he had a slight downturn in career trajectory. Expect the Manimal to have a huge finish to his season and someone to target in the right matchup for DFS while his price is still somewhat low.

As alluded to, Faried is getting some help. On his shots off passes in his last four, he’s made a 70.0 percent of his buckets. That includes Emmanuel Mudiay assisting him 11 times in that span and passing it to him 58 times — no other player passed to him more than nine times. Mudiay still can’t shoot, but he’s actually played very well. His defense has improved and this game-sealing shot on Wesley Matthews was the highlight of his post-break run:

Nice. Mudiay actually leads the team in net rating in the last four at plus-13.2. He’s been respectable in the last four games at a 50.1 true shooting percentage, a 25.7 usage rate and 34.8 minutes per game. Before these last four? The rookie was at a 40.5 true shooting percentage, a 24.5 usage rate and at 30.0 minutes per game. Yes, four games, but a 9.6 percent bump is big time.

So what gives? Here is a loot at his shot chart in the last four games (top) and the first 45 games of the season (bottom):

There are two huge differences: 3-pointers and at the rim. He increased his shooting at the rim by 10.0 percent and has shockingly been a 44.4 percent shooter on treys lately, too. The distribution is pretty similar, so it’s hard to buy into this being sustainable from an efficiency standpoint. Like many of the Nuggets, he is scoring more in fast break right now, so that is encouraging and also necessary for him to be a decent scorer at this stage of his career.

All these stats over his last four resulted in averages of 17.8 points, 4.8 boards, 7.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.5 blocks, 2.8 turnovers and 2.0 treys. That actually gave him sixth-round value in standard leagues and those stats hit value for his price in DFS. It’s still not time for a Mudiay party yet, but he’s no longer “hands off” territory.

OK, so how about the centers. On Sunday night, Jusuf Nurkic was not in a good mood. He fired off this tweet after Sunday’s game:

IF IT HAPPENS ONCE,IT’S A MISTAKE . IF IT HAPPENS TWICE, IT’S A CHOICE.

— Jusuf Nurkić (@nurkic23) March 7, 2016

To be clear, maybe this has nothing to do with him not playing. This was his first all-caps tweet since arriving at camp this season, so it’s definitely odd. Anyway, Nurkic looks like he’s out of the rotation now and hasn’t played since Feb. 21 despite going through practices.

It would appear we’ll get a healthy taste of Big Honey. In his last four games, Nikola Jokic averaged 13.0 points, 9.0 boards, 3.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.3 blocks and 0.3 treys in 25.5 minutes. There was a 34-minute outlier from Friday, so expect Jokic to be in the low 20s most games. They do have their next two games against bigger frontcourts with the Knicks and Suns on the horizon, so that bodes well for his minutes. Jokic’s interior passing has been a huge part of the offense and the team might finally be letting him free. In DFS, you just have to be careful of the foul trouble. When he flops, it’s usually due to his fouling. He’s created some separation from Joffrey Lauvergne, who has seen just seven minutes at power forward in the last four. That was three games ago and it hasn’t happened at all in the last two. He’s pretty much a straight backup.

Will Barton has actually been pretty bad in his last four. In those games, he played 30.5 minutes per outing with averages of 12.3 points, 5.8 boards, 2.5 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.5 blocks and 0.8 treys on just 33.3 percent from the field. Not good. Simply put, he’s going to turn it around soon and it should start tonight against the Knicks.

Gary Harris has been one of the most impressive sophomores in the past month or so. There was a lot of stuff on him in Waiver Wired from Sunday, so bang it here to check that out. That was written before Sunday’s game and he was even more encouraging in that outing. The versatility to his game has been almost astonishing and it’s really nice to see his offense catch up to his defense. He should be owned in all leagues right now and is a fine target in DFS while his price hasn’t caught up to the output yet.

Last and not least, one of the heroes from Sunday. D.J. Augustin played a whopping 14 minutes next to Mudiay on Sunday and a total of 23 minutes in the last four. Surprisingly, that tandem posted a net rating of plus-43.9 thanks to their offensive rating of 136.9. DJA has logged 26.7 percent of his minutes next to Mudiay in the last four. He’s been lights out beyond 10 feet with a 94.4 effective field goal percentage, so obviously his output right now isn’t sustainable. Still, if you have some confidence the Nuggets will go small, DJA is worth a look in DFS. I’d consider him more of a 14- or 16-team guy in season-long leagues.

Ryan Knaus and I will be recording the podcast shortly, so drop us a question on Twitter @MikeSGallagher or @Knaus_RW.

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