Matchday Wrap Up: Monday Morning Manager – WK29
Very odd is the weekend that hinges so significantly on idiotic red cards. Most of the major storylines this weekend had, at the center of them, a player at a big, famous club getting sent off for two fairly stupid yellow card offenses. Let’s break it down:
What’s My Name? (If you don’t get it, you haven’t seen Deadpool yet, go fix that and then come back)
As a long-suffering, at least as far as the title goes, Arsenal supporter, Francis Coquelin’s sending off wasn’t about “if” but “when” as soon as he picked up his first yellow card relatively early in the first half. Coquelin is the best Arsenal have in the pure holding role but impulse control is not one of his strong suits. Given Arsenal’s club-wide propensity to sabotage themselves in big matches the script was all too obvious. I’m not sure any Arsenal supporter saw either the Ramsey goal or the Alexis equalizer coming but we all saw the red card coming. This result certainly seems to lend itself to recriminations – for Coquelin for the second yellow, for Spurs for not closing up shop up a goal and a man, and for the referee for not sending off Eric Dier for what was clearly his second bookable offense – more so than praise and somehow that seems appropriate in a season where no one seems to want to win the title. The bottom line is that Spurs and Arsenal both fall back in the title race while Leicester City continues to grind out wins on their way to the most improbable Premier League since Jose Mourinho conspired to turn a title winning Chelsea side into relegation fodder.
Milner, James Milner
Apparently James Milner was really eager to make sure that Francis Coquelin didn’t feel bad about himself as the only midfielder to make a stupid challenge for his second yellow card. The only thing that made Milner’s slightly more excusable than Coquelin’s was that there really wasn’t much on the line for Liverpool at Selhurst Park. Liverpool won’t be in the title race, they won’t be in the top four, and, let’s face it, no one at Liverpool REALLY cares about the Europa League outside of the opportunity to beat Manchester United in the upcoming knock-out stage match.
Perhaps the only interesting thing about Milner’s red card, other than it allowing for a very nice theme to base my introduction on, was that his teammates played significantly better down a man and without Milner than they did when he was on the pitch and they were playing at even strength. Jurgen Klopp did the sort of thing a manager who doesn’t have anything to play for in the current campaign (and one playing against Crystal Palace in their current state) can do, he went with three defenders and left the attack full strength. Shame on Palace for not being able to make more of a three man Liverpool defense and shame on them again for the hideous errors that led to their defeat.
Klopp can be given credit for keeping the pressure on Palace but it’s hard to give him TOO much credit since Roberto Firmino was basically given the first goal and Damien Delaney had no reason to make any contact whatsoever with Benteke given where he was in the penalty area. You can argue that it was a really soft penalty but what you can’t argue is that there was at least some contact which means that the referee has to make a choice and that there was no reason to make that contact given that Benteke had really already gone past any particularly useful angle to shoot or cross from. Shepherd him out of bounds and let him try to make the insanely unlikely shot or pass, don’t put it in the referees hands.
Juan More for the Road
Finally, we come to Juan Mata’s two yellow cards in a couple of minutes at the Hawthorns. Both the Baggies and the Red Devils have been playing better after a long time adrift. Manchester United were legitimately back in the running for a Champions League place after their win over Arsenal last Sunday. A win at one of their favorite hunting grounds, especially after the draw in the NLD, would have put them within two points of Arsenal and level on points with City (who have a match in hand against Newcastle). With the Manchester Derby next, being in that sort of position had to look like an absolute gift given how United’s season has gone.
Enter Juan Mata to ruin it all. How does someone so experienced in big matches with big clubs do something as stupid as stick in a leg on a free kick? It wasn’t in a dangerous position. He isn’t Joey Barton but for some reason he had a Barton-esque moment that cost his team significantly. The second yellow card followed the theme of the weekend, an ill-considered foul against an opponent who wasn’t in a particularly dangerous position from a player already on a yellow card. Did Mata think that Darren Fletcher transformed himself into the Midlands version of Lionel Messi? That’s the only explanation for why you try to make that tackle on a player like Fletcher who is trying to slalom through the center of the midfield. That Louis Van Gaal tried to use the “he’s not that sort of player” defense after the match just made it worse.
So, there you have it, the title and a top four spot turning on foolish yellow cards. When you say it that way it doesn’t sound particularly entertaining but it certainly was when you watched it.
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The Title Race (Ranked from favorites to most likely to miss out on the Champions League)
Leicester City – It couldn’t have gone much better for the Foxes than it did. A draw in the NLD was their dream scenario. Certainly they would have liked to win in more dominating fashion but they got N’Golo Kante back and the clean sheet parade that has dominated the second half of their season returned. Five points clear and matches remaining with Newcastle, @Palace, Southampton, @Sunderland, West Ham, Swansea, @ManUtd, Everton and @Chelsea. That doesn’t look like a lot of dropped points, does it?
Tottenham – The obvious storylines are all about Arsenal letting themselves down over the past month and really, all of 2016 so far with a title in site. This is true because we have years and years of built-up expectations of Arsenal and Arsene Wenger based on accomplishments from the 90s and early 2000s. The storylines about Spurs, even after this weekend’s come-from-ahead draw, have been less scathing because, at least based on the brand name that we have associated with Spurs in our heads, they’re overachieving to even be in the conversation. The players are young and have (repeat after me) “never been here before”. Even getting into the Champions League is a big step up for Spurs. It’s a funny thing about narrative but Spurs have come up small in consecutive matches against big opponents and been given something of a pass. Not here at Monday Morning Manager. Spurs are choking away what is likely to be their only shot at a title in their lifetimes and should be criticized in the same way we unloaded on Liverpool when they did the same thing in Suarez’s final season at Anfield. Surely it is nice for long-suffering supporters that they’re in the conversation this late but if they don’t win the title then let’s call it out for what it is, a huge failure.
Arsenal – The North London derby has been analyzed in a hundred different ways and I’ve made some comments in the intro so I’m going to let that go here and move on to the notion of the European Super League that was making the rounds in the media last week. I understand why a club like Real Madrid or Barcelona or Bayern Munich would want to close up shop and cast their lot with a potentially more lucrative “domestic league” like the proposed/discussed Super League. By creating a “best of the best” European League there would presumably be bigger fan bases to market to collectively and bigger pots of money available as one of the elite teams in all of Europe guaranteed every year.
What I don’t understand is why the second tier of clubs that would presumably be invited, including Arsenal, Liverpool, anyone in Italy not named Juventus, anyone in Germany not named Bayern, Atletico Madrid, Porto, Ajax, etc. might be interested. Unless something changes dramatically, clubs in that secondary group aren’t going to be very competitive in the new European Super League. In return for what would likely be a bump, but not an enormous bump, in income (when compared to the money derived from their domestic league plus the Champions League) they would, in all likelihood, be accepting a situation where they really aren’t contending for any titles anymore.
As an Arsenal supporter, the only thing that I can hang my hat on is a relative success in the league (top four every season and at least in the conversation for the title) and a far better than average chance in the FA Cup and the League Cup. Winning the Champions League isn’t something I even dream about as an Arsenal supporter so I’m not sure why my opinion of Arsenal’s chances against the same set of opponents would change if it were a competition called the European Super League rather than the Champions League. Domestic competitions, and relative success in those competitions, are what make the reputations of Champions League participants. If those go away then why a sponsor would want to associate themselves with an also-ran in the European Super League any more than they do with an also-ran in the Premier League is a mystery. My prediction is that if a Super League comes to fruition, it will be both a financial and a competitive negative for the “bottom” half of clubs that join.
Manchester City – 4-0 against Aston Villa? Not really much to report here. Nice to see Aguero playing well.
The Second Tier (Ranked from most likely to break into the Champions League to least likely)
West Ham United – Oh, what could have been had Dimitri Payet not gotten injured? The Hammers have been excellent and their comeback win over Everton, a team with big talents in the squad, shows that talent only takes you so far. I’m not fond of attributing a great deal of importance to managers not named Alex Ferguson or Jose Mourinho but the difference between the belief instilled by Slaven Bilic and the lackadaisical attitude toward defending a lead that has been symptomatic of Roberto Martinez clubs at all of his stops was huge. There’s just no excuse for giving up a two goal lead like that…at home…to a team without any of the “best players in the world” in it. Good on Bilic and the Hammers.
Manchester United – They’re too close on points to entirely eliminate from top four contention but their loss to West Brom was as close as a knockout blow as can be applied at this stage of the season. Amazing how quickly Marcus Rashford stopped being a thing after four goals in four days. This isn’t a ding on the player but he’s the sort of “fox in the box” that depends entirely on good service and I don’t think he got even a sniff of a chance against the Baggies.
The Relegation Battle (Ranked from most likely to be relegated to least)
Aston Villa – Is there anyone on the Villa squad that Premier League teams will be looking to cherry pick when the Villans go down? Sadly, not really.
Norwich City – The fact that Norwich City is still even on points with Newcastle and only one point from safety speaks more to how poorly those two northern clubs are playing than it does to the Canaries and their staying power. There seems to be a sense of hopelessness associated with Norwich. Maybe it’s just me but from nearly equal spots in the table, Norwich feels far more likely to be going down. Maybe it’s the lack of talent. Maybe it’s the fact that they were actually in a solid-ish position at mid-season and have come back to the relegation pack. Maybe it’s that there isn’t anyone in the squad who feels likely to take the rest by the scruff of the neck and will them over the finish line. Whatever the reason, it feels over for the Canaries. As far as potentially interesting castoffs, Robbie Brady and Nathan Redmond seem like the two most interesting players for other clubs to consider with a solid veteran like Steven Naismith likely to attract some interest from a club looking for forward depth.
Newcastle United – I’ve had the Magpies above the Black Cats in my personal power poll here for a long time but I just can’t do it anymore. They just aren’t getting any consistency from any of the young players that we’ve been expecting to step up. Whether that is management, and Steve McClaren seems likely to be on his way out sooner rather than later, or just poor work in the transfer window or some of both, I don’t know but it certainly doesn’t feel like the manager has taken any of his players to a higher level than they were at when the season started.
Sunderland – It isn’t pretty but it looks like the Black Cats might escape again by the thinnest of margins. It seems like they should be putting more distance between themselves and Newcastle/Norwich than they have but between Defoe and Khazri it seems like they might have done enough to walk the tightrope yet again.
Swansea, West Brom, and Bournemouth – Strong runs of form from all three look to have them out of the danger zone after looking like they might legitimately flirt with relegation.
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