Jason Pierre-Paul, Adam Jones among potential free-agent bargains
We’ll look back on the 2016 NFL free-agency class and wonder how some teams got impact players for such reasonable contracts.
The smart organizations can find players who will produce a great return on their minimal investment. Maybe they’ll sign a player whose market is depressed because of injury, age, or simply because he’s a talented player who hasn’t gotten a chance at a bigger role. Here are five potential bargains NFL teams could be on the lookout for before free agency starts on March 9 (for our five potential busts, click here):
Chase Daniel: Last year the Buffalo Bills signed quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who had no career starts and 35 NFL passing attempts, to a three-year, $3.35 million deal. Taylor won the starting job and had a fine season, with 20 passing touchdowns, four rushing touchdowns and a 99.4 passer rating. So while it’s incredibly rare, you can find a bargain at quarterback in NFL free agency.
Is Daniel next? Daniel has always been pretty well thought of in the NFL. Philadelphia Eagles coach Doug Pederson, who was Daniel’s offensive coordinator with the Kansas City Chiefs, talked about him being an NFL starter this offseason. But instead of pursuing Daniel for that role, the Eagles paid Sam Bradford $36 million over two years.
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Daniel has two career starts with 77 NFL passing attempts, with moderate success. He has generally played pretty well in the preseason. He had a 120.6 passer rating last preseason, which proves nothing but at least gives teams something positive on film to evaluate. With Kirk Cousins getting about $20 million on the franchise tag for a great half season, Brock Osweiler parlaying seven career starts into a reported three-year, $45 million offer from the Denver Broncos (and he didn’t even take it right away), the price of doing business at quarterback in the NFL is pretty outrageous. Daniel won’t come at Taylor levels, considering he just played out a three-year, $10 million deal, but if your choice was to pay more than $15 million for Osweiler or maybe $4 million for Daniel, what seems like the potential bargain there?
Jason Pierre-Paul: Last year, Pierre-Paul turned down a $60 million contract offer from the New York Giants, and nobody thought that was crazy. We know what happened after that.
After Pierre-Paul’s hand was severely injured in a fireworks accident, he had just one sack in eight games. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story. He was pretty good at pressuring the quarterback. If you can get by the sack numbers and look at how often he pressured the quarterback, there was value there. Will he improve with another year getting used to his injuries? Or is he a player who just can’t finish tackles anymore?
Pierre-Paul will get a fraction of the money he would have gotten had he hit the market this year at 27 years old with no injury concerns. He won’t come cheap, but he could still be a relative bargain if he can rebound to his old levels. It might not even require a long-term commitment, because Pierre-Paul is probably better off gambling on himself with a short prove-it deal. Pass rushers are hard to come by, and JPP is probably worth the risk.
Sean Spence: Spence was a third-round pick in 2012. Then a major knee injury cost him his first two seasons. When he returned, the Steelers didn’t have a regular starting spot waiting for him. Still, he ended up starting 13 games over two seasons and played pretty well.
Spence still has the size and most of the athletic ability that made him a top-100 pick. He is just 25. Spence likely won’t command a huge deal because of his injury past and lack of starting experience, so it’s a low-risk investment that could pay off pretty well.
Adam Jones: Some teams will get sticker shock when they see how much cornerbacks go for in this free agent market. Of the top free agents, many of them are cornerbacks. And in this pass-happy NFL, all of them will get paid well.
If you’re looking for a top-end player at a reasonable price, it might be Jones.
Jones had an excellent 2015 for the Cincinnati Bengals. He was ranked 13th among all cornerbacks by Pro Football Focus. They graded him as giving up 9.7 yards per catch, one touchdown on 75 targets and just a 60.7 passer rating allowed. Here’s why Jones won’t get paid as well as some others who didn’t play as well as he did in 2014: He’s going to turn 33 on Sept. 30, and we were all reminded of his checkered past at the end of last season.
Jones, who had a surprisingly quiet and productive career in Cincinnati after some tumultuous times with the Tennessee Titans and Dallas Cowboys, got a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty at the end of a wild-card game that set up an easy Pittsburgh Steelers penalty. He posted an angry video online about the officials. Then he said Steelers receiver Antonio Brown was faking a concussion. Add in his age and it’s hard to see Jones getting a massive contract. However, he showed last season that he has plenty to offer a team for the next season or two, at least.
Tyvon Branch: From 2009-12 with the Oakland Raiders, Branch was an above-average strong safety. He averaged well over 100 tackles a season, with a career-best 124 in 2009, and covered fairly well too. Then injuries wrecked his 2013 and 2014 seasons. He signed a one-year deal with the Kansas City Chiefs, pretty clearly as insurance for Eric Berry, who was less than a year removed from being diagnosed with cancer. Berry did just fine, making a Pro Bowl, and Branch only started once. That’s not an indictment of Branch, of course, because Berry is one of the best strong safeties in football.
Branch did play well in reserve duty. He’s only 29 years old so he has a lot left to offer. Because he has started only six games the past three years, he shouldn’t cost a huge contract, either. He’ll be a great find for some team.
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab