Dark horse picks for college basketball's conference titles, NCAA tournament bids – Washington Post

The Hokies have their eyes on the ACC’s title and automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. (Matt Gentry/AP Photo)

We all know that Kansas, Villanova and Indiana enter their upcoming conference tournaments as favorites. But are there any sleepers at the high major level that could snatch up their conference’s title and automatic bid?

Here are the hottest dark-horse contenders for their conference tournament titles.

Big East: Seton Hall

There isn’t a team playing at a higher level in Big East play entering March than the Pirates. Kevin Willard’s squad lost just two of their nine games since the start of February (both to Butler, a team that SHU won’t have to face in Big East tournament play unless both reach the title game), a time span during which sophomore guard Isaiah Whitehead established himself as a conference player of the year contender. The Pirates shot an effective field goal percentage of 55 percent and handed out 53 assists during that stretch.

[Bracketology: How the 2016 NCAA tournament field looks right now]

But it isn’t the offense that makes Seton Hall a stealthy Big East title contender, it’s the team’s stingy defense. The Pirates held February opponents to just 0.97 points per Big East possession, which includes wins against Xavier and Providence.

Big 12: Iowa State

Georges Niang was a bright spot for the Cyclones in their loss to Kansas. (John Rieger/USA TODAY Sports)

Much ink has been spilled highlighting Iowa State’s deficiencies during Steve Prohm’s first year on the sidelines, but 21 wins, including 10 in conference play, are nothing to scoff at, and the Cyclones might be peaking at the right time. Georges Niang is not only the most important player to his team’s success this season, he is also the most versatile. He epitomizes the small ball movement sweeping the nation and was easily the best player on the court in this weekend’s loss to Kansas — 22 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists.

The team’s offense is finally starting to click under Prohm, and they’ve upped their perimeter shooting, which has long been one of the Cyclones’ best attributes. The team’s three-point field goal attempts percentage has risen to 36 percent the past four games, and Iowa State made nearly 40 percent of its long-range shots.

[Bubble Watch: What fringe NCAA tournament teams must do for at-large bids]

Defense will never be the team’s strong suit, and indeed 1.08 points allowed per possession is worrisome. But by emphasizing the three-pointer, the Cyclones have made their half court offense more efficient, which opens gaps for the team’s versatile and athletic drivers.

ACC: Virginia Tech

Don’t scoff, but the Hokies are the team no other ACC team wants to face during the conference tournament. The sqaud’s overall defensive efficiency, which is just under one point per possession, belies a team that plays aggressive and physical man-to-man that can unsettle even the most veteran and confident opponent. Virginia Tech has won its last five games largely thanks to its defense, allowing a scant 0.92 PPP.

In particular, opponents have gone ice-cold from beyond the arc, which, unless that shooting regresses to the mean, will continue to benefit the Hokies. Those five opposing teams have posted a three-point field goal attempts percentage of nearly 40 percent, and those same teams are making just 20 percent of those shots. What should also help Virginia Tech’s quest is its ACC tournament seeding — the Hokies have a first-round bye, and should they defeat the winner of Boston College-Florida State, Virginia Tech next plays Miami, a team Buzz Williams’ squad defeated over the weekend.

Pac-12: USC

The Pac-12 is probably the most difficult conference to predict a potential sleeper, mainly because there are a handful of teams that have underperformed in February but could upend Oregon, Utah, and the other squads atop the conference. Colorado, Oregon State and even Washington could go on a run, but the one team that has slumped the past several games and could emerge is USC.

In early February, the Trojans were 6-3 in conference play with efficiency rates of 1.09 (offensive) and 1.04 (defensive), but since the February 4 win over UCLA, those rates have plummeted — 1.06 and 1.06 in Pac-12 play. Simply, the offense became stagnant and the defense fell flat at the worst possible time for coach Andy Enfield. USC has the talent to win the Pac-12 tournament, but the team just needs to get its defense back to its earlier form.

Big Ten: Wisconsin

Even though the Badgers lost to Purdue over the weekend, Wisconsin is playing some of the league’s best basketball. Part of that momentum has been built by coach Greg Gard’s decision to re-embrace the swing offense made famous by Bo Ryan. The squad is converting 38 percent of its threes in conference play, which makes opposing defenses more susceptible to drives, allowing the Badgers to rack up free throws (free throw rate of nearly 40 percent, which is second in conference play).

Gard has also gone with a small ball lineup that pairs Vitto Brown (who has made 41 percent of his threes in Big Ten play), Nigel Hayes and Ethan Happ. Per Ken Pomeroy, this group has played more than 35 percent of the team’s possessions and, according to Hooplens.com, has an efficiency margin of plus-0.15 (1.06 points per possession scored and 0.91 allowed). Wisconsin suffered just two losses in February and March, and could be a sleeper to at least make the title game.

SEC: Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is an enigma — the team could win the SEC tournament, or lose in the second round to either Tennessee or Auburn by 20 points. There is no sure thing when it comes to the Commodores this season, which is why Vandy is the surest sleeper pick on this list.

On paper, only Kentucky can compete with the level of talent dotting Kevin Stallings’ roster. Wade Baldwin, Damian Jones and Matthew Fisher-Davis have all been sound, but the key to Vandy making a tournament run is Riley LaChance, who has been mired in poor offensive performances. The guard’s effective field goal percentage since February began is 32 percent. If LaChance can regain his non-conference form, and Stallings begins to tinker with his lineups — specifically the one that pairs LaChance with Jeff Roberson, Baldwin and Fisher-Davis — the Commodores could upend the conference.

This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.