MLB season preview: Can Joey Votto make the Reds respectable?
Editor’s Note: With the arrival of baseball season we’re previewing each MLB team, from worst to best. We’ll look at their key offseason moves, projected lineup, best and worst possible outcomes plus examine the team’s fantasy implications. Our daily series continues with No. 26: The Cincinnati Reds.
The big rebuild is on in Cincinnati, but the Reds have one advantage that most other rebuilding teams don’t have. They still have their superstar, Joey Votto, and he’s still in his prime, which gives fans something to cling to while everything around him changes.
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And boy are things changing quickly. New general manager Dick Williams already moved on from Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman during the offseason, setting the stage for a complete teardown that would have extended far beyond those two had circumstances allowed. That leaves the Reds in a somewhat awkward position, with a clubhouse in flux and a roster that could still change significantly before opening day.
That’s how baseball works sometimes, but the reality is the Reds were not going to contend in 2016 regardless of how their roster situation played out. The NL Central is far too strong and unforgiving at the top to allow a 98-loss team to bounce all the way back. But the presence of Votto at least gives them a link to past successes, a beacon of hope for respectability here and now, and a building block to a better future.
Key additions: Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler
Key subtractions: Aroldis Chapman, Todd Frazier
This is what a full-on rebuild looks like. Chapman and Frazier were shipped out for young talent, as the team continues to look to the future. Brandon Phillips likely would have been as well, but reportedly turned down the deal due to his 10/5 rights. Jay Bruce was also gone, but one player’s poor physical halted a deal. By September the lineup could very well be “Joey Votto and the Cincinnati kids.” If fans were unhappy with how often Votto walked before, imagine how much worse that will be when he’s the only dangerous player in the lineup. (Chris Cwik)
Raisel Iglesias: His 4.15 ERA from last season may not seem all that encouraging, but the 26-year-old made strides as the season advanced. He was much better in the second half, posting a 3.39 ERA in 66 1/3 innings. Over that same period, he held hitters to a .192 average, and saw his strikeout rate jump while slightly lowering his walk rate. That could be small sample craziness, or it could signal that Iglesias has made adjustments and is ready to take a step forward.
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Iglesias is one of the players who should be around by the time Cincinnati is ready to contend again, so the Reds are hoping the latter is more likely. (Chris Cwik)
Lineup:
1. Billy Hamilton, OF (.226/.274/.289, 56 R, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 57 SB)
2. Zack Cozart, SS (.258/.310/.459 28 R, 9 HR, 28 RBI)
3. Joey Votto, 1B (.314/.459/.541 95 R, 29 HR, 80 RBI)
4. Brandon Phillips, 2B (.294/.328/.395 69 R, 12 HR, 70 RBI, 23 SB)
5. Jay Bruce, OF (.226/.294/.434 72 R, 26 HR, 87 RBI)
6. Devin Mesoraco, C (.178/.275/.244 2 R, 0 HR, 2RBI)
7. Eugenio Suarez, 3B (.280/.315/.446 42 R, 13 HR, 48 RBI)
8. Adam Duvall, OF (.219/.306/.484 6 R, 5 HR, 9 RBI)
Rotation:
1. Homer Bailey (0-1, 5.56 ERA, 11.1 IP, 3 K)
2. Anthony DeSclafani (9-13, 4.05 ERA, 184.2 IP, 151 K)
3. Raisel Iglesias (3-7, 4.15 ERA, 95.1 IP, 104 K)
4. John Lamb (1-5, 5.80 ERA, 49.2 IP, 58 K)
5. Michael Lorenzen (4-9, 5.40 ERA, 113.1 IP, 83 K)
— compiled by Kyle Ringo
When you’re relying on young pitching, the floor can be pretty low. With that in mind, this team could finish with anywhere between 85 and 100 losses. (Townsend)
With Aroldis Chapman in New York, who shuts the door? For now, the job belongs to J.J. Hoover, but he enters the season as one of the shakiest closers in the game. Hoover posted a seemingly respectable 2.94 ERA last season, but the underlying numbers weren’t all that impressive. His K-percentage was a career-low 19.7, his walk-rate was a career-high 11.7 and his xFIP was bad news (4.62). Toss in the fact that Hoover has historically been at his worst in March and April (1.47 WHIP, 5.23 ERA), and you have a prime candidate to lose the ninth early in the season. Stay ready, Jumbo Diaz.
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Any sleepers here? Cincinnati’s roster offers a handful of low-cost names with clear profit potential — notably Devin Mesoraco and Eugenio Suarez — but right-handed starter Raisel Iglesias might be the most appealing. Iglesias started 16 games for the Reds last season, striking out 104 batters over 95.1 innings, limiting walks (2.6 BB/9), and coaxing a swinging-strike percentage of 11.7. Don’t be surprised if he delivers a low-3s ERA with 180 Ks in the year ahead, which would make him a steal at his average Yahoo draft position (129.5). (Andy Behrens of Roto Arcade)
This one is easy. Brandon Phillips, aka @DatDudeBP on Twitter and Instagram, is about as good as it gets when it comes to engaging fans and having fun on social media. He has 915,000 Twitter followers and he’s quick to hit the retweet button, especially for the people out there supporting the Reds. If you run into the Reds’ second baseman out in public and get a picture with him, the odds are high it’s going to be up on Phillips’ timeline. Phillips might also lead the league in emojis, and he’s definitely got his favorites he uses to give his tweets that extra fire they need. (Israel Fehr)
Joey Votto is ridiculously awesome, and deserves recognition for that. At times, it’s unclear whether fans in Cincinnati even enjoy him. He’s been criticized for poor RBI totals, and some have questioned whether he should be more aggressive at the plate. Neither of those issues are probably going to improve this season, especially considering his supporting cast, but it hasn’t mattered in the past. Since Votto debuted in 2007, he’s posted the third highest wRC+, an advanced stat that measures offensive performance, in baseball. Votto owns a ridiculous .311/.423/.534 slash line over that period, and is known for almost never hitting infield popups. He’s an incredibly special player who often goes underappreciated by those who see him every day. He’s the type of player fans will miss like crazy once he’s gone, so take the time to watch him while he’s still at his peak. (Cwik)
PREVIOUSLY IN THIS SERIES:
#30: Philadelphia Phillies | #29: Atlanta Braves | #28: Milwaukee Brewers | #27: Colorado Rockies
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Mike Oz is the editor of Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @MikeOz
