Greg Cosell’s Free Agency Preview: Breaking down five key players
I’m not going to tell you what teams should or will pay certain free agents when they hit the market on March 9, but I can tell you what I’ve seen from some of the more interesting free agents-to-be on film.
[NFL free agency starts March 9. Here are Shutdown Corner’s free-agency rankings for offensive players and for defensive players and specialists. Here are the top needs for all 32 NFL teams.]
As a primer for free agency, here’s an analysis of five key free agents based on film study:
QB Brock Osweiler
The issue with Osweiler is there’s not much film to watch. He has seven career starts. That makes it tough because he’s probably going to command a large deal.
And what we’ve seen on film is inconsistent, which is to be expected from a young quarterback. At times he played with poise and composure in the pocket, and had the look of an NFL starting quarterback in a Broncos offense whose foundation was the run game. Other times he missed throws he needed to make.
Osweiler is more advanced than most quarterbacks with seven starts, because he backed up Peyton Manning for his first three-and-a-half seasons. Against New England last season, Osweiler made an excellent anticipation throw out of an empty set. The Patriots had an amoeba front with disguised coverage behind it. They rushed four with a “man lurk” coverage concept, and Osweiler made a stick throw to Emmanuel Sanders on an in-breaker. That’s a very good play by Osweiler.
Osweiler also has good physical skills. He does not really drive the ball with higher level velocity, but he has a good enough arm. Osweiler has deceptive movement in the pocket and also showed the ability to make throws outside the pocket. This was a nice throw against the Bengals: Osweiler had excellent pocket movement after the right tackle got driven into the pocket, and Osweiler made a great throw with touch and precise ball placement to Owen Daniels.
While there was good, there was some bad too. Also in that Bengals game, Osweiler missed a key third-and-1 pass to a wide-open Demaryius Thomas. Thomas ran by cornerback Adam Jones but Osweiler threw the ball too flat with not enough air under it. That’s a throw you have to make.
So we know that Osweiler does some things well, and he’s still figuring out other things. His lack of experience makes him a tough evaluation in free agency.
RB Doug Martin
Martin showed this year that he can be a good foundation back. In Week 13, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ first six plays of the game were all Martin runs out of base personnel, and each was a different run. That helps show that Martin is an all-around back that can probably do well in most schemes.
Martin also knows how to run in the NFL. Here’s a run against the Dallas Cowboys in which Martin showed the ability to get skinny and got through a small crack at the point of attack. He went through the line and gained 18 yards.
Martin also had a nice 49-yard run against the Washington Redskins. On iso-lead to the weak side, Martin cut back to the side of the unblocked safety, Trenton Robinson. Martin’s initial downhill path brought Robinson inside, and Martin was creative in his cutback to get to the open field.
Martin is a tough inside runner, an explosive downhill back. He does not have smooth hips, but he has quick feet to change direction. If you’re looking for a back who can be a foundation runner to build an offense around, Martin can do that.
RB Lamar Miller
Miller wasn’t a foundation back for the Miami Dolphins. And you have to consider that if the Dolphins thought Miller could handle more carries, they’d have done that. Obviously the team didn’t think he was that kind of a player. Maybe the Dolphins were wrong, but that is clearly their opinion of him.
What Miller does bring is versatility, especially in the passing game. The Dolphins would sometimes line him up outside the numbers to create mismatches. In a win against the Philadelphia Eagles, they game-planned ways to get Miller in favorable matchups in space.
On third-and-11, the Dolphins split Miller outside the numbers and he was one-on-one against linebacker Mychal Kendricks. Miller’s stutter-go route easily beat Kendricks for 35 yards.
Later, Miller ran a flat route with linebacker DeMeco Ryans in man coverage. That play was specifically designed for Miller to attack Ryans in coverage. It ended up being a 13-yard touchdown.
Miller isn’t the same type back as Martin. But he’s versatile, and that allows an offensive coordinator to do different things with him to stress a defense.
WR Marvin Jones
Jones is one of the top receivers in free agency, after Alshon Jeffery was given the franchise tag. What Jones can be is a good No. 2 receiver. He really developed as a deep threat.
Early in the season against the Baltimore Ravens, Jones showed his development. He also showed he was healthy, coming off injuries that cost him his 2014 season. The Ravens tried matching up cornerback Rashaan Melvin with Jones, but Melvin couldn’t keep up. He gave up big plays, was penalized three times and was eventually benched. Jones played very well in that game.
Here’s a 16-yard touchdown from that game, a skinny post by Jones that beat good coverage by Melvin.
Jones has deceptive vertical speed to get on top of corners. He became a legitimate deep threat. For a team looking for a good No. 2 receiver in free agency, Jones can fill that role.
DE Malik Jackson
Jackson is likely to be one of the most coveted free agents on the market, and it’s easy to see why. All season his versatile and multi-positional skill set was one of the most overlooked aspects of the Denver Broncos defense. He plays multiple positions along the defensive front and has great length with both run-stopping and pass-rushing ability.
Jackson was great in Super Bowl 50. In an earlier post we talked about his run-stopping ability from that game, but it’s worth revisiting one play in particular. The first play of the third quarter, Jackson blew up an inside zone play by splitting a double team. He was dominant like that all game, and a major reason the Carolina Panthers couldn’t run the ball.
Here’s an example, from the Super Bowl, of Jackson’s ability to disrupt a quarterback. Jackson immediately beat the left guard to create inside pressure on Cam Newton. That forced Newton to move. Von Miller had beat the right tackle with a spin move, and Newton eventually moved into a sack by Derek Wolfe.
Jackson didn’t record a stat on either play but he was a main reason the Broncos won both of those plays. Those are good examples of how Jackson can be a dominant force, even if he doesn’t put up the numbers of other players. Coaches and scouts who watch film understand exactly what Jackson can bring to a defense.
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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.
