Brad vs. the Book: Cue the ‘Crazies,’ Duke to sweep Carolina
Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless and toothless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Saturday’s selections below:
North Carolina at Duke – Three weeks ago, in yet another thrilling chapter in the rivalry’s history, Duke, down for much of the second half at the Dean Dome, stormed back in the waning moments and stole a 1-point victory. Carolina, which inexplicably refused to feed big Brice Johnson over the final 10 minutes though he was unstoppable for much of the game, should’ve never surrendered the lead.
To prevent another downfall, the Heels must deliver in a couple key areas. For starters, it needs to decorate the paint. One of the better rebounding teams in the country, they have a colossal advantage inside. Duke, which ranks No. 313 in defensive rebounding percentage, is undersized and outmatched. Secondly, Roy Williams can’t employ zone at any time. Duke’s ridiculous range (38.9 3PT%), gashes such schemes, which was evident in Game 1. Finally, enigmatic bombers Marcus Paige and Joel Berry can ill-afford another 1-for-9 day from outside. They nail a few jumpers and it will only soften the Devils’ already loose defense. Check those boxes and victory is sure to follow.
However, the above requirements are a tall task for the inconsistent Heels. Ultimately, Duke’s perimeter abilities, handsome free-throw contributions, few self-inflicted wounds (14.8 off. TO%) and fevered Cameron crowd should guide it to a cover, especially if Grayson Allen is trippin’.
Prediction: Duke (+1) 77 North Carolina 75
Maryland at Indiana – Full disclosure, for the past several weeks I’ve repeatedly questioned Indiana’s viability. Its ultra-friendly front-loaded Big Ten schedule and No. 269 non-conference SOS lent cause for pause. Mea culpa. The Hoosiers, due in large part to their ferocious offense, have rightfully earned my respect. On the season the outright Big Ten champs have netted a blistering 1.18 points per possession, the eighth-highest mark in college basketball.
Maryland, afflicted with a serious case of the scoring flu, received a major shot in the arm Thursday versus Illinois. In its comfortable win, it drained a season-high 14 threes. Most importantly, Melo Trimble, who was 11-for-his-last 47 from the field entering the night, converted 7-of-14 shots and chipped in a 5:2 AST:TO split. But this year’s Illinois team couldn’t defend a non-scholarship player on crutches. To truly ease concern, the Terps must show well in Bloomington.
Mark Turgeon’s bunch are an exception defensive team along the perimeter. On the year, opponents are splashing a mere 31.6 percent against them. Indiana, which loves the three (42 3PT%), will be challenged. Ultimately, this game will be decided by IU’s bigs. Thomas Bryant, Troy Williams and Max Bielfeldt should feast against Maryland’s soft interior. Thrown in Yogi Ferrell’s torrid streak and the Hoosiers’ incredible success at home against ranked foes and they’re a no-brainer bet.
Prediction: Indiana (-6) 83 Maryland 75
Vanderbilt at Texas A&M – It’s about time, Vandy. It ‘only’ took you four months to finally tap into your mammoth potential. Punctual.
The Commodores, winners of four straight including crucial contests over Kentucky and Florida, have finally anchored in the at-large harbor. They’ve increased their overall profile with clutch threes, tough inside play and staunch defense. A top-35 team in offensive and defensive efficiency, Vandy has the qualities necessary to taste sweetness come NCAA tournament time.
Almost a month to the day, the Commodores marched into College Station and skewered A&M. In their 16-point win, they rained 13 threes and held the Aggies to an abominable 0.95 points per possession. For TAMU to exact revenge, it must contest outside shots, match Luke Kornet and Damian Jones blow-for-blow on the glass, discover its midrange touch and hope Jalen Jones doesn’t lapse into a statistical coma. In the first matchup, the forward was 1-for-13 (0-for-10 from two) from the field.
Bottom line, Vandy is at the zenith of its playing ability. Given its turnaround and A&M’s matchup problems against it, I’m siding with the sweep.
Prediction: Vanderbilt (+4.5) 70 Texas A&M 68
Other Leans: Kansas (-9.5), Miami (-6.5), West Virginia (+3), Oregon (-1), Syracuse (+3), Louisville (+6), Minnesota (-1.5), Kentucky (-13), Iowa (PK)
Parlay Play: Miami (-6.5), Indiana (-6), West Virginia (+3)
Year to date (w/Twitter picks): 151-123-7
Want to toss elbows at Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise.
