Saves and Steals: Bullpen Review: NL Central
Over the last couple weeks, the bullpens of the NL East and AL East were reviewed in detail. Since then, A.J. Ramos‘ stock has soared at the expense of Carter Capps. Unfortunately, Capps is dealing with a second round of elbow pain. These things usually lead to Tommy John surgery. Today, we’ll move along to the NL Central.
As always, I welcome any and all criticism or suggestions. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter. I will list all pitchers likely to make the club out of spring training with others to watch included in the team-by-team write up. Relievers are a volatile asset class, some will rise and fall unexpectedly.
Chicago Cubs
Rondon was excellent last season, posting a 1.67 ERA with 8.87 K/9 and 1.93 BB/9 over 70 innings. Since this is a Joe Maddon-run club, you can never count on closer stability. Rondon managed to lose his job, temporarily, to Jason Motte of all people. I was baffled, and I repeatedly stated my bafflement.
There is a small problem with Rondon’s repertoire. He throws five pitches, leaning most heavily on a 96 mph fastball, sinker, and slider. The fastballs perform like league average pitches while the slider is plus. He throws the slider over one-third of the time, and his success is heavily dependent on that one pitch. If he happens to lose his feel for the pitch, he’ll quickly lose the closer’s role too. Remember, Joe Maddon.
Strop is a veteran Cubs setup man. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him working the middle innings more this season. Strop mostly uses the same three pitches as Rondon, except half of Strop’s offerings are sliders. It’s a truly fantastic pitch – a contender for best slider in baseball. The downside with Strop is occasional bouts of wildness. Don’t worry, it’s not Rick Ankiel syndrome. Strop just isn’t very fine with his command.
Warren will probably fill a multi-inning relief role. He may move into the rotation in the event of injuries. When pitching in relief, Warren narrows down his five pitch repertoire. The 94 mph fastball and average slider play up out of the bullpen. He’ll chip in about a strikeout per inning with under 3.00 BB/9. A solid ERA and WHIP should follow.
Once a starting pitching prospect for the Rangers, Grimm has settled in as a reliable setup quality reliever. He’s a fastball-curve guy. The breaking ball performs similarly to Strop’s excellent slider, although Grimm’s curve is slightly more hittable. Grimm is a good source for holds. A few sniped saves are not out of the question.
Cahill joined the Cubs last September after failing his way off the Braves roster (that, by the way, is a feat). Cahill pitched so well in 17 innings that the Cubs brought him back. The ground ball pitcher tossed a 2.12 ERA with 11.65 K/9 and 2.65 BB/9. I’ve wanted to see him in a steady relief role for years. I should get my wish this season. He’s a sinker specialist who makes equal use of a change, cutter, and curve. Another holds source.
I hyped Ramirez last offseason but injuries kept him off the field for most of the season. The fly ball pitcher was fine when in action although he lost a couple mph off his fastball. He throws plenty of “rising” fastballs. Ironically, those tend to stay in the ball park. He’ll mix in the odd slider or curve too.
Lastly, Wood shifted from starting to relief last year with great success. His fastball gained two mph, and his strikeout rate jumped to 11.02 K/9. Most of the gain came from substantially reducing his home run rate. It’s unclear if that’s sustainable. Wood and Warren look to fill the long relief role. Both can earn holds if they’re used in the right innings.
The Cubs bullpen is probably pretty well set. A few recognizable NRI in camp include Jean Machi, Aaron Crow, Brandon Gomes, and Manny Parra.
St. Louis Cardinals
Seung-hwan Oh
Rosenthal has had his share of hiccups in the last couple seasons, but at least we can count on him retaining the job. His 98 mph fastball is the best pitch in his arsenal. His main secondary pitch is a changeup. He’ll flash the occasional slider and curve, but he has trouble controlling them. When he gets into trouble, it’s via the walk. So long as he’s not handing out free passes, he should be a top 10 closer.
I like Siegrist. I had him on most of my rosters at some point last year. My concern is the huge workload he shouldered. He appeared in 81 games and threw 74.2 innings. His 2.17 ERA, 10.85 K/9, six saves, and 28 holds were wonderful. The left-handed fly ball pitcher had homer problems in 2014, but they vanished last season. It’s hard to judge what we should expect this year.
You’ve probably heard the nicknames – The Final Boss and Stone Buddha. Oh has dominated the KBO and NPB. The 33-year-old lost a few strikeouts last year. Scouts seem to describe an unflappable middle reliever. I have no PITCHf/x data on Oh. If nothing else, he should be fun to watch. Try to scout him this spring.
Broxton used to live off a 98 mph fastball. Injuries stole the pitch from him, but he’s worked his back up to 95 mph velocity. Not bad. He also throws a sinker, frequently used slider, show-me curve, and a rare splitter. Home run problems led to a 4.62 ERA last season. There’s no reason to think he can’t achieve his 3.24 xFIP instead.
A former catcher, Walden missed most of 2015 with a shoulder injury. His availability is somewhat in question. At his best, he throws a 95 mph fastball with a plus-plus slider and change. We’ll have to see if he’s still achieving the same velocity. While Walden has closer quality stuff, his command leaves something to be desired.
Maness picked up 20 holds last season. The floor is a little too low in my opinion. His strikeout rate is generally around 6.00 K/9, and he’s coming off a 4.26 ERA (3.78 FIP). The right-handed ground ball pitcher has plenty of command, but you’re mostly getting empty holds. You can find better production out of somebody like Sam Dyson.
I expect Lyons to serve in a long relief role. While he could offer sneaky good ratios with over a strikeout per inning and low walk rate, I don’t foresee many holds opportunities.
A personal favorite of mine Sam Tuivailala probably won’t make the Opening Day roster. He throws a 97 mph fastball with a good slider. Luke Weaver is a starter prospect, but he could factor in the late innings as part of a playoff push. File the name away for later.
Pittsburgh Pirates
I’ll be the first to admit that evaluating Melancon gave me fits last year. He was off his game early in the season with his stuff visibly diminished. The cutter specialist then allowed just two runs over May, June, and July – one of which was unearned. His velocity also returned to normal. Then he finished out the season on a shaky note – nine runs over his last 14.2 innings.
I’m still concerned about Melancon. The cutter is a good pitch, and his control of it ensures a high floor. Like many great cutter specialists, he induces a lot of bad contacts – plenty of soft grounders and infield flies. Melancon probably won’t return to his past strikeout ceiling, but he’ll do enough to be useful. He’s a good mid-tier guy in my opinion.
I’ve noticed Watson being selected as a trendy closer sleeper. The lefty has a lot in common with Melancon. One important note, Watson has thrown the most innings of any reliever in the last three seasons. Incidentally, Melancon has thrown the second most innings over that period. In fact, they’re the only two pitchers to eclipse 70 innings over the last three campaigns. Watch out for injury.
Arc Lightning Caminero throws a 99 mph heater with a 97 mph sinker, 92 mph cutter, and 90 mph splitter. He works hard, hard, and hard. Caminero is still polishing rough patches to his approach – namely suspect command. He can also get in trouble trying to put his fastball through a hitter’s bat. With Tom Searage’s tutelage, I expect more improvement this year.
From a fantasy perspective, the rest of the bullpen is a little iffy. Feliz is an interesting reclamation project. He relied heavily on his velocity during his heyday. Look for reports of 97 mph fastballs before taking a flier. At least PNC Park is well-suited to his fly ball tendencies.
Hughes is a good real world pitcher who offers fantasy owners nothing but holds. Nicasio was solid out of the Dodgers bullpen last season. He fired 95 mph bullets with 10.03 K/ and 4.94 BB/9. If he can get on top of his walk rate, he could be a relief stud in the making. His fastball carried him – the slider wasn’t very impressive.
Cory Lueke and Eric O’Flaherty are in camp as non-roster invitees. Additional depth includes Kyle Lobstein and John Holdzkom.
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