Roundtable: Finding the best bets in MLB’s 2016 over/unders

Bovada 2016 projected MLB win totals With Ian Desmond officially a member of the Texas Rangers, we’re declaring free agency to be complete. Barring a few unforeseen changes, such as a surprise trade or a big injury, the clubs we see now should be close to the teams that take the field on opening day.

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Because of that, we here at The Stew feel confident picking our favorite over/unders for the upcoming season. Bovada, an online sportsbook, released its predictions on Monday, and that’s what we’ll be using for this exercise. Bovada’s predictions are listed to the right.

Each of our writers was tasked with picking one team they believe will exceed their win total, and one they think will fall short. Did your favorite team make one of the lists? Read on!

OVER: ATLANTA BRAVES 66.5 WINS
I like the Braves to go over 66.5 wins because not a lot has to go right for them to reach that total. Granted, they’re a ways from contending, but they aren’t too far away from being dangerous. If the young talent brought in by John Hart and John Coppolella the past two seasons comes together and mixes well with their capable veterans, I could see them playing spoiler down the stretch and exceeding this total by 8-10 wins. (Mark Townsend)

UNDER: LOS ANGELES ANGELS 81.5 WINS
It feels a little dangerous betting against a Mike Trout team, but one look at the roster provides some reassurance. The Angels pitching looks fine on paper, but keeping their key starters healthy will be a necessity and it could prove to be a challenge based on history. Offensively, beyond Trout’s enormous presence and a hobbled Albert Pujols, there’s very little reliable production. It has the feel of another frustrating and ultimately wasted season in Trout’s prime. (Townsend)

OVER: TAMPA BAY RAYS 81.5 WINS
Have you seen the Tampa Bay Rays’ starting rotation? It’s young, talented and, for the most part, finally healthy. Chris Archer has developed into an All-Star. Jake Odorizzi came into his own in his second season as a starer. Drew Smyly and Matt Moore are on the mend and ready to prove themselves again. Alex Cobb isn’t ready to join them just yet, but his recovery from Tommy John should have back on a major-league mound sometime in the second half to give Tampa a boost late in the season. There are questions about the lineup’s ability to score runs. If that pitching staff reaches their own lofty expectations, though, there’s no reason the Rays can’t finish the year with closer to 90 wins. (Israel Fehr)

[Elsewhere: Curt Schilling offered up some more political opinions … again]

UNDER: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS 87.5 WINS
This prediction sounds insane, as the Cardinals return the bulk of the core that contributed to their 100-win 2015 season. There are some notable changes, though, with John Lackey and Jason Heyward joining the Chicago Cubs and Lance Lynn out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Also consider that Yadier Molina, 33, and Matt Holliday, 36, are getting up there in age and maybe there’s just cause for concern in St. Louis. Getting to play the Reds and Brewers a combined 36 times is going to give the Cardinals a leg up, but could be nullified by their many divisional matchups against the Cubs and Pirates. This one’s going to be tight, but St. Louis looks like they’ve lost enough to just miss exceeding their over/under total by a win or two. (Fehr)

OVER: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS 82.5 WINS
This is a team that added two of the better starting pitchers in all of baseball in the offseason in Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller and yet somehow is only supposed to win three more games than it did last season. I think this team is better than 821/2 wins, but probably not a whole lot better. There isn’t a lot of depth to the starting rotation behind them and the lineup lacks power other than Paul Goldschmidt, but there is just something about this team and the way these guys play the game that tells me they’re going to be more competitive this year. I expect the additions of Greinke and Miller to rub off on other members of the pitching staff and the team as a whole. (Kyle Ringo)

UNDER: WASHINGTON NATIONALS 89.5 WINS
Something was desperately wrong in this clubhouse last season and while there have been a lot of changes, I’m going to have to see things are different to believe it. I like the addition of Dusty Baker as manager and Daniel Murphy and Ben Revere to the lineup. Stephen Strasburg has only been over 200 innings once in his career and the Nationals will need him to get there again to win 90 games. Bryce Harper is the reigning NL MVP and this team plays a lot of games against weak division foes in Philadelphia, Atlanta and Miami so I understand why some see 90 wins as a low number for this team. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Nationals get there, but I think they finish a couple wins short. (Ringo)

OVER: KANSAS CITY ROYALS 85.5 WINS
It’s painfully obvious at this point that all the predictors and projectors have a hard time with the Kansas City Royals. This selection of over/unders is actually quite kind to the Royals, considering one set of projections has them finishing below .500, with 79 wins. That’s just silly. The Royals will still be a good team this season, good enough that 85 1/2 wins can very well be their floor. They’ve been better than expected the last two years when people didn’t believe in them. They’ve converted me. At 85 1/2, I’m definitely taking the over. (Mike Oz)

[Elsewhere: Is the Brewers dog mascot Hank an imposter?]

UNDER: BALTIMORE ORIOLES 79.5 WINS
The Baltimore Orioles spend a ton of money this offseason to improve their roster. But here’s the thing: They’re not all that much better than the .500 team from a year ago. Heck, they might not be better at all. The O’s resigned Chris Davis for $161 million, then brought back Darren O’Day and Matt Wieters. They also signed Yovani Gallardo to replace Wei-Yin Chen, who left in free agency. That’s pretty much a wash, so the Orioles are basically the same team that was average last year in the AL East. Their win total is pegged at 79 1/2. So can i see them finishing two games under .500. You betcha. (Oz)

OVER: CLEVELAND INDIANS 84.5 WINS
A poor April, in which they went 7-14, really sunk Cleveland last season. If not for that, and a shoddy defense, the club may have found itself in the playoffs. I can’t guarantee a fast start in 2016, but I can guarantee the defense will be better. Francisco Lindor will be up for the entire season, and third base will be better from a defensive standpoint. The rotation remains excellent, with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar at the top. There’s some concern about Michael Brantley’s injury keeping him sidelined early in the season, but if he can return quickly, the Indians become a dangerous team. They’ve been on the verge of a run the past few seasons. I think this is the time they finally break through. (Chris Cwik)

[Elsewhere: Mike Trout is using new technology in order to get the most out of his swing]

UNDER: NEW YORK YANKEES 85.5 WINS
I admit, picking the under was difficult. I expect the Yankees to be a good team, but I also see plenty of risk here. The offense is built around old veterans like Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira. If those guys get injured or show some decline, that could spell trouble. On top of that, the rotation is pretty shaky. Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda have immense talent, but both are big injury concerns. CC Sabathia is no longer all that effective but, more importantly, he’s not the same workhorse he was in the past. I like Luis Severino, but it’s unclear how hard the team will work him this season. Nate Eovaldi is the best bet of the bunch to reach 200 innings, and that’s not encouraging. The bullpen is fantastic, though, and should cover some of those deficiencies. I don’t feel confident enough in this prediction to wager a lot of gummy bears, or my prized Pokémon card collection, but I do have some concerns about this club. (Cwik)

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