Brad vs. the Book: Butler to receive big boost vs. The Hall
Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless and toothless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Wednesday’s selections below:
Seton Hall (21-7, 18-8 ATS) at Butler (19-9, 14-12) – Several college basketball fans of various expertise levels have blasted the Big East, calling it an unworthy conference to receive such national recognition. Though a bit top-heavy thanks in large part to the spectacular seasons logged by Villanova and Xavier, questions loom among the league’s remaining members.
Seton Hall, which steamrolled the Musketeers in Jersey last Sunday, answered the call and silenced its critics. Victorious in eight of its past nine games, the Pirates have earned their postseason booty. Angel Delgado’s stellar paint play combined with Isaiah Whitehead’s across-the-board contributions explain the spark. Also stout defensively (No. 13 nationally in D efficiency) and zeroing in from outside (40.9 3PT% last four games), the Hall is in a serious groove.
Butler, my current first team OUT, is in full desperation mode. With only three quality wins on its resume (Cincinnati, Purdue, Seton Hall), every game against a formidable opponent is of utmost importance. Its inside/outside scoring abilities, consistent conversions at the free-throw line and sparse committed turnovers have occasionally masked its defensive inefficiencies. If Tyler Wideman and Andrew Chrabascz protect the glass and Kelan Martin, Kellan Dunham and Roosevelt Jones attack inside, the Bulldogs should net a much needed resume-builder and their second W over The Hall this year.
Prediction: Butler (-4.5) 79 Seton Hall 72
Miami (23-5, 17-10 ATS) at Notre Dame (19-9, 12-13) – Not so different from previous Irish teams, this year’s brand is woeful defensively. Among the projected at-large field, Notre Dame ranks dead last in several defensive categories including D efficiency (No. 191 nationally) and three-point percentage D (No. 329). Clippers owner Steve Ballmer would probably dunk all over them.
Miami, strangely, hasn’t garnered much love from the national media. Though it disposed of Utah, Duke, Virginia and Louisville, the ‘Canes simply aren’t attracting headlines. Effective on both ends, the U really excels at putting ball in basket. It attacks the dish, takes advantage at the free-throw line and can inflict serious damage from three. Recall in its ‘upset’ of Virginia, it drilled 10 treys. If the good Angel Rodriguez shows up …
Notre Dame scores interminably, evidenced in its No. 1 offensive efficiency ranking. VJ Beachem, Steve Vasturia and Demetrius Jackson can fill up the stat sheet. However, its untrustworthy D is why the smart money should be on the visiting team. Recall the last time these teams squared off, in Miami, the ‘Canes notched 1.25 points per possession. Take the points.
Prediction: Miami (+2) 76 Notre Dame 75
St. Joe’s (24-5, 19-9 ATS) at St. Bonaventure (20-7, 12-10) – The Blue Cross, sure to swell to its 13,000-person capacity, will be rockin’ Wednesday night. Not only is the A-10 battle with St. Joe’s important for conference title implications, it’s also critical to the Bonnies’ at-large resume. Ground the Hawks and they will present an even stronger case to the Selection Committee.
Riding the crest of an 8-1 record over the past month, Mark Schmidt’s club is blitzing the opposition from beyond the arc. Over one third of the Bonnies’ points in league action have come from the trifecta. Sharpshooter Jaylen Adams, one of the nation’s most accurate gunners, is netting over 45 percent of his three-point attempts. Couple that with Dion Wright’s reliable interior execution and complementary scoring from shooting guard Marcus Posley and stand out sixth-man Nelson Kaputo, and St. Bonnaventure typically piles up the points.
St. Joe’s is far superior defensively and, on paper, matches up extraordinarily well. The key component of the Hawks’ scheme is contesting shots along the perimeter. Teams are shooting a mere 29.4 percent against DeAndre’ Bembry and Co. in conference play.
Phil Martelli’s zone was mostly ineffective against the Bonnies when the teams first clashed in early February. In that contest, Adams splashed six of his squad’s 13 threes. Expect Martelli to employ more man, but expect the home team to sweep the regular season series.
Prediction: St. Bonaventure (+4) 75 St. Joe’s 70
Other Leans: Oregon St. (+5.5), Oregon (-2), West Virginia (-9.5), Mississippi St. (+3.5), Providence (-3.5), Alabama (-4)
Parlay Play: Butler (-4.5), St. Bonny (+4), Alabama (-4)
Year to date: 144-115-7
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