MLB season preview: Are the Phillies bad enough to lose 100 games?

Editor’s Note: With the arrival of baseball season we’re previewing each MLB team, from worst to best. We’ll look at their key offseason moves, projected lineup, best and worst possible outcomes plus examine the team’s fantasy implications. Our daily series starts with No. 30: The Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies lost 99 games last season, a dumbfounding number for fans who just a few years ago were celebrating NL East title after NL East title.

Here’s some bad news, Phillies fans: Things aren’t getting better much this season. Heck, they could get worse.

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The 2016 Phillies, who are still paying Ryan Howard $25 million despite that .229 batting average a year ago, are saddled with disappointment in more ways than one. This will be a rebuilding year, there’s no doubt about it. They’ve overhauled their front office and over the past year have traded away many of the players who were contributing to those first-place finishes. These aren’t the Phillies of Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels anymore — no, it’s a new era in Philly. 

The Phillies are hoping to rebuild the smart way, like the Houston Astros did. It won’t happen by September, but if fans watch closely enough, they might see glimmers of hope in young players such as Maikel Franco and Aaron Nola.

Key additions: Jeremy Hellickson, Vincent Velasquez, Charlie Morton

Key subtractions: Ken Giles

The Phillies are clearly in the process of rebuilding, so there was no need to make huge additions at the major-league level. The loss of Giles will hurt, as he is young, cost-controlled and talented. But having a great closer on a roster that’s going to win 65 games isn’t wise. Velasquez was one of the big names in that deal, and he should get a shot to prove himself in the majors this season. The real key additions were the prospects acquired in both the Giles and Cole Hamels trade from last July. Those players have a shot to be key contributors on the next Phillies contender. Most of the club’s actual big-league adds are nothing more than stopgaps until better talent arrives. (Chris Cwik)

Vincent Velasquez: If there’s one advantage to being in the Phillies current position, it’s that they can give questionable players long looks at certain positions. Scouts are torn on whether Velasquez will be an effective starter or a useful bullpen arm. While he has powerful stuff, his command isn’t as strong. If he can develop into a useful starter, that will be a major win for the organization.

[Elsewhere: Clayton Kershaw likes the new and improved Yasiel Puig]

Thankfully, the Phillies can give him all season to prove whether he belongs in the rotation. There might be growing pains, but Velasquez will likely flash potential too. As long as he stays healthy, the Phillies should gain an understanding of what role he’ll play on a future contender. That’s significant. (Cwik)

Lineup:
1. Cesar Hernandez, 2B (.272/.339/.348, 57 R, 1 HR, 35 RBI, 19 SB)
2. Odubel Herrera, OF (.297/.344/.418, 64 R, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 16 SB)
3. Maikel Franco, 3B (.280/.343/.397, 45 R, 14 HR, 50 RBI)
4. Ryan Howard, 1B (.229/.277/.443, 53 R, 23 HR, 77 RBI)
5. Aaron Altherr, OF (.241/.338/.489, 25 R, 5 HR, 22 RBI)
6. Freddy Galvis, SS (.263/.302/.343, 63 R, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 10 SB)
7. Carlos Ruiz, C (.211/.290/.285, 23 R, 2 HR, 22 RBI)
8. Peter Bourjos, OF (.200/.290/.333, 32 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI)

Rotation:
1. Aaron Nola (6-2, 3.59 ERA, 77.2 IP, 68 K)
2. Jeremy Hellickson (9-12, 4.62 ERA, 146 IP, 121 K)
3. Charlie Morton (9-9, 4.81 ERA, 129 IP, 96 K)
4. Jerad Eickhoff (3-3, 2.65 ERA, 51 IP, 49 K)
5. Vincent Velazquez (1-1, 4.37 ERA, 55.2 IP, 58 K)

If the rebuilding Phillies somehow manage to leapfrog the transitioning Braves, that would be a notable accomplishment. But fourth place is as high as they can realistically go in a tough division. With that said, wins aren’t the most important measure of this Phillies team. The focus should be on continued growth among their improving group of prospects and progress at all levels of the organization. (Mark Townsend)

Despite their steep decline since 2012, the Phillies have not lost 100 games in a season since 1961. They came close in 2015, losing 99 times, and seem like strong candidate to reach that level of futility in 2016. No team wants to go through that, even if they realize better days are ahead. (Townsend)

What’s good on this offense? Perhaps he’s being screened by the ordinary talent around him, but third baseman Maikel Franco looks like a tremendous value in the early part of draft season. He hit for average and power in his rookie year (.280, 14 homers in 80 games), and yet you can grab him around pick 147 in Yahoo leagues. While Kris Bryant and Miguel Sano are the buzzy, expensive sophomore third basemen, Franco is tucked away at a nice price. Odubel Herrera has come a long way in a year, from Rule 5 pick to Philly’s likely leadoff man. He’s capable of 10-12 homers and 18-20 steals, and you’ll get him for almost nothing in Yahoo leagues (ADP 259). 

[Elsewhere: Is Carlos Correa worth a top-five fantasy pick?]

Who’s the closer? The trade of Ken Giles opened the ninth inning for the Phillies, and even if they’re a 100-loss team, we still want to go after whatever save scraps they can offer us. With that in mind, give a look at David Hernandez, the former Arizona set-up man who probably has the closing gig to lose. Hernandez offers a mid-90s fastball and a strikeout rate worthy of the role, though he’s been troubled by home runs the last two seasons. If you have the stomach, you can just about name your price in Yahoo leagues; Hernandez has an ADP around 243. (Scott Pianowski)

Literally think he is my bestfriend. pic.twitter.com/GpXcsMVuy4

— jp crawford (@jp_crawford) February 23, 2016

With Philadelphia officially in a rebuild, why not get familiar with the next generation of Phillies stars? J.P. Crawford tops that list, and he’s regarded as one of the top prospects in all of baseball. The 21-year-old shortstop also happens to be quite active on Twitter @jp_crawford. If you love baseball and adorable dog photos, Crawford is a must follow. The Phillies are going to be intently following his progress on the field, and while Crawford will likely open the season in the minors he could make his big-league debut sometime in 2016.

Friday 6 families, w/ kids who were receiving treatment from local hospitals, were able to sleepover in clubhouse! pic.twitter.com/NJ9qock7Zn

— Phillies (@Phillies) November 7, 2015

The Phillies won’t have a heartwarming season ahead, but we can at least end this on a high note. Here’s one reason anybody can root for the Phillies: The last two years, after the season ended, the Phillies hosted a sleepover for kids who were patients at the local children’s hospital. The kids get to sleep in the team’s clubhouse, hang with the Phillie Phanatic and even take BP. That’s fantastic. (Mike Oz)

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Mike Oz is the editor of Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @MikeOz