Brad vs. the Book: Iowa to bounce back versus Indiana

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless and toothless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Tuesday’s selections below:

Indiana (23-6, 15-14 ATS) at Iowa (20-8, 13-12) – The Hawkeyes are college basketball’s version of the Hindenburg. An utter disaster over the past two weeks, they’ve crashed and burned dropping four of their past five games. Once believed to be an elite offensive force, they’ve taken up residence in Siberia. Ice-cold from outside and unable to cash in consistently on second-chance opportunities, Iowa averaged a gut-wrenching 0.99 points per possession in defeats to Penn St., Wisconsin and Ohio St. Peter Jok continues to torch the nets, but Jared Uthoff’s game has slipped. Without a dependable third scorer, it’s dependent on the All-American candidate to execute at a high level.

The Hoosiers, crowned Big Ten regular season champs after Iowa’s loss in Columbus, largely remain a question mark. Their proclivity for threes, transition explosiveness and ability to generate offensive rebounds are impressive, but their defense, though improved, isn’t exactly ironclad. Recall they surrendered 1.28 points per possession in a blowout loss at Michigan St. and 1.21 points/possession in their last meeting versus Iowa, a seven-point victory. 

Essentially, this game will be decided by what Iowa team shows. It’s uneven play and inability to close out games has to get rectified in short order or it could tank in the NCAA tournament. Gut feeling, the turnaround starts Tuesday. 

Prediction: Iowa (-4) 77 Indiana 72 

Baylor (21-8, 9-13 ATS) at Oklahoma (22-6, 12-14) – The Fighting Hields have turned into a one-man band. Buddy has consistently chipped in 25-30 points per game, but predicting the effectiveness of secondary and tertiary options Isaiah Cousins, Jordan Woodard and Ryan Spangler is largely an exercise in futility. For the Sooners to win, it’s imperative for two of the three to reach double-figures. Fail to do so, and a double-digit defeat, like they suffered last weekend in Austin, is inevitable. 

With NFL hopeful Rico Gathers and Johnathan Motely on roster, the Bears are ferocious in the paint. As a unit, they rank No. 3 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Couple Baylor’s manufactured second chances with long-distance dial-ups from Tauren Prince and Al Freeman and its conversions at the charity stripe, and it possesses solid offensive balance. 

However, for the Bears to remain competitive they must stretch on defense. In Big 12 play, foes are netting over 40 percent from downtown against them. Still, they should have a sizable glass advantage, which keeps this one fairly close. Throw the ‘dog a Milkbone. 

Prediction: Oklahoma 78 Baylor (+7.5) 73 

Kentucky (21-8, 13-16 ATS) at Florida (17-12, 13-13) – The Gators, turned into luggage in recent efforts, are digging a trench preparing for a last stand. On the wrong side of the ledger in five of their past seven contests, they’re desperate to get off the bubble. A win against rival Kentucky would play enormously in the Selection Committee room. 

For Florida to hold home court, it must win the battle of the boards. It’s a sound offensive rebounding team, but when it comes to boxing out on the opposite end, it struggles. The Wildcats, who feed off additional opportunities, could have a field day inside. Equally important, it’s of critical importance the Gators protect the ball and receive strong shooting performances from Kasey Hill, Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen, a largely unreliable trio. 

Ultimately, Tyler Ulis and Jamaal Murray outmatch Florida. The pair’s dynamic scoring talents combined with Alex Poythress and Marcus Lee’s activity around the basket will be too much. Unlike its recent road trips to College Station and Nashville, Kentucky will sink the hopes of a desperate team, with or without Derek Willis. 

Prediction: Kentucky (-3) 70 Florida 65 

Other Leans: Virginia (-5), Akron (-5.5), Tennessee (+12), Richmond (+1)

Parlay Play: Iowa (-4), Baylor (+7.5), Kentucky (-3)

Year to date: 138-111-7

Want to toss elbows at Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise.