NBA Free Pick: Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder – WagerTalk News (blog)

Could this be our Western Conference Finals preview? (Not if San Antonio has anything to say about it). But nonetheless, Saturday night’s Oklahoma City-Golden State clash should be a thriller. The Warriors’ finale to their seven-game roadtrip is our Saturday night NBA free pick.

Date and Time: Saturday, February 27th 2016 at 8:30pm ET
Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Watch: ABC
Spread: Golden State -3; O/U 234 (Follow up-to-the-minute line moves as they happen here)

They don’t mean much, but a few fun trends heading into the game courtesy of OddsShark…

• The Thunder have won 11 of the last 12 meetings between these teams in Oklahoma City.
• Oklahoma City has covered the spread in just four of its last 14 games (4-9-1).
• Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.
• This is the sixth game that Oklahoma City is an underdog this season (first time as a home dog). The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in the previous five.

Who to Watch: When Draymond Green was at Michigan State, he averaged around four assists per game during his career – Not bad at all for a 230-pound forward. Who would have guessed that four years later, Green would lead the defending NBA champions in assists at 7.3 per game. His evolution in the Warriors’ offense has been fascinating to watch. His increase in minutes, points and rebounds from last season to this season have all been minimal, but it’s the increase in assists that jump off the page. Green has recorded double-digit assists in seven games since the calendar turned to 2016 and leads the league in triple-doubles with 11.

What’s the Key: Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant still need help. The Thunder superstars combined for 67 points and out-scored Curry and Thompson by 23 in their first meeting with the Warriors, but it wasn’t enough. In last Saturday’s disappointing home loss to Cleveland, Serge Ibaka was the only other Thunder player to reach double-figures. In Thursday night’s loss to the Pelicans, Enes Kanter was -16 in just 18 minutes on the floor. Dion Waiters’ scoring has dropped from 11.1 points per game in January to 7.4 points per game in February, including a 0-point performance in 32 minutes against Indiana last week. The Thunder need consistent contributions from other sources if Oklahoma City wants to make a deep run this summer.

Where We’re Leaning: When these two teams met on Super Bowl Saturday, both of them had the three previous days off to get ready. They were well-rested and well-prepared to defend the opposition’s attack. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson combined to go 2-for-15 from three-point range, Golden State put up an absolute dud in the third quarter, and these two teams still managed to combine for 224 points. We’ll be looking to back the over in this contest. Tired legs traditionally affect defense a lot more than offense. Both teams are playing in their third city in four nights. Golden State is playing the final game of a seven-game roadtrip. Steph Curry’s 51-point performance on Thursday night shows that his shooting legs are still feeling good, but the Warriors defense is giving up an average of 113.4 points per game in their last five. Marco D’Angelo has this game capped around 238, and we think there’s some value on the over in what should be a very entertaining NBA contest.

Direct from Las Vegas, WagerTalk TV host Marco D’Angelo (@MarcoInVegas) and Sports Cheetah (@SportsCheetah) break down the Saturday night Western Conference matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder, including a free NBA best bet.

Jay Richards

Proud owner of a 2014-15 Ohio State National Championship ticket at the jaw-dropping price of 75-1 (hedging was never an option). 2009 graduate of the Curley Center for Sports Journalism from Penn State University, with published work at the Big Ten Network, The Morning Call (Allentown, Pa.) and a handful of other regional outlets.

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