Brad vs. the Book: Brogdon, Cavs to bring the noise against UNC

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless and toothless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Saturday’s selections below:

North Carolina (23-5, 11-16 ATS) at Virginia (21-6, 12-13) – A sports-related rendition of Aesop’s fable classic ‘The Tortoise and the Hare’ will take center stage inside John Paul Jones Arena. The Heels, who relish and rely on transition opportunities, square off against the Cavs, a bunch that executes at a calculated halfcourt pace. 

As everyone knows, slow and steady wins the race. 

Virginia is an exceptionally balanced team, ranking top-11 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Its screen game, fluid passing and denials on the glass are nearly unmatched. Also effective from three and terrific at the free-throw line, the experienced Cavs own the characteristics needed to exploit Carolina’s weaknesses. 

Brice Johnson is a hoss. When worked early and often, he’s nearly unstoppable around the basket. However, Carolina’s woefully erratic long-distance shooting from Joel Berry and Marcus Paige can make it one-dimensional. UVA’s pack-line defense will have its hands full with Johnson, but if Anthony Gill and Co. limit second-chance opportunities, they will lull the opposition to sleep. 

Prediction: Virginia (-3.5) 71 North Carolina 64 

Arizona (22-6, 15-13 ATS) at Utah (22-7, 13-13) – Arizona is college basketball’s ultimate Two-Face. On one side of the ledger, its powerful brand name, high standing in a very competitive league and distinguished overall record make it very attractive. On the opposite end, its unappealing strength of schedule (No. 86) and two, that’s correct TWO, RPI top-50 wins (Gonzaga, USC), leaves an ugly impression. Though considered a top-10 team in popularity polls, it could be in for a rude awakening Selection Sunday, unless it halts the rolling boulder that is Utah. 

The Utes, fresh off a surgical 35-point dissection of Arizona St., are playing outstanding basketball. When Brandon Taylor makes smart shooting decisions, Jakob Poeltl staves off the zebras and Jordan Loveridge and Dakari Tucker are nailing outside shots, they can upend any team in the country. Assuming Poeltl stays out of foul trouble, he and Kyle Kuzma should hold their ground inside. As a team, Utah ranks No. 11 in two-point percentage offense and No. 26 in two-point percentage defense. The paint is usually its friend. 

Although it can knock down threes, Arizona plays more comfortably around the basket. ‘Drago’ dead-ringer Kaleb Tarczewski, Ryan Anderson and Dusan Ristic are efficient interior scorers who often draw contact and make opponents pay at the line. Look for them to attack Poeltl immediately in an attempt to establish presence and possibly draw whistles. 

The last time Utah dropped a home game was nearly a year to the day, to, you guessed it, Arizona. However, don’t bank on this year’s Wildcats to turn the same trick. 

Prediction: Utah (-3) 72 Arizona 65 

Maryland (23-5, 11-14 ATS) at Purdue (21-7, 13-11) – Just who are you exactly Melo Trimble? Are you the hyped guard who earlier this season dominated the competition with crisp passes, dagger threes and flashy breakaway conversions? Or are you the sloppy-handed (13:18 AST:TO split last three games), brick-laying (4-for-his-last-35 from the field) shell of your former dynamic self? 

What version of Trimble shows inside Mackey Arena is critical to Maryland’s success. When on, he creates rhythm and balance with systematic control, boosting the entire team’s game. But based on his recent string of forgettable performances and Purdue’s steadfast man defense, Melo’s Mr. Hyde side is almost certain to make another appearance. 

A bigger issue for Maryland: Purdue’s group of Gumbys. Isaac Haas, Caleb Swanigan, A.J. Hammons and Vince Edwards range from 6-foot-8 to 7-foot-2. That disruptive length is precisely why the Boilers rank No. 28 in offensive and No. 4 in defensive rebounding percentage. The Terps, an average team on the glass, must generate season-best contributions from Diamond Stone, Jake Layman and Robert Carter to compete. 

Bottom line, Purdue’s intimidating size, stiff defense and rowdy home crowd are sure to overwhelm Maryland. If X-factor Rapheal Davis tickles the twine from outside, the Boilers may turn this one into a laugher. 

Prediction: Purdue (-3.5) 75 Maryland 67 

Other Leans: Miami (-3), Texas (+1.5), Vandy (+1.5), Notre Dame (-1), TCU (+8.5), BYU (-2.5), Army (PK), Stanford (-1), Mississippi St. (PK), George Washington (-2.5) 

Parlay Play: Utah (-3), Purdue (-3.5), Virginia (-3.5)

Year to date: 125-103-7

Want to toss elbows at Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise.