Examining which NFL teams should use the franchise tag

NFL teams have an important choice to make before next Tuesday: To franchise tag, or to not franchise tag?

Teams can choose to use the tag, which ensures a one-year deal at no less than the average of the top five salaries at his position, to keep their most valuable free agent off the market. The downside is that it’s generally a huge dollar figure (here are the estimates for this year) that eats up a lot of salary-cap room, and most players do not like getting the franchise tag because they want a long-term deal.

But if it means ensuring the return of a superstar, so be it.

A few teams, like the Denver Broncos, don’t have a tough decision at all on the franchise tag, because they aren’t letting a superstar go to free agency. Denver is trying to get a long-term deal done with linebacker Von Miller, but if they can’t before Tuesday then Miller will be tagged. Other teams will have to think long and hard about whether they’ll use the tag or take their chances on retaining a player once he hits the open market. Here are the teams that are realistic candidates to use the tag (if you don’t see your team it’s because it is very unlikely they will use the tag, though surprises happen all the time), and the chances they’ll use it on the player in question:

DONE AND DONE

Baltimore Ravens — K Justin Tucker

The Ravens wasted no time. Tucker’s agent announced on Friday morning that the team put the franchise tag on his client, who is one of the best kickers in the NFL.

Verdict: Wise move

LOCKS

Denver Broncos — OLB Von Miller

Has there been an easier franchise tag decision in NFL history? If the Broncos can’t come to a long-term deal before the deadline (and it won’t be easy, because no nine-figure contracts are), the franchise tag works as a placeholder while a contract gets done. As obvious as it gets for the Super Bowl 50 MVP.

Verdict: Well, duh

New York Jets — DE Muhammad Wilkerson

Another easy one. Wilkerson is a fantastic 3-4 defensive end and is coming off a career-high 12 sacks. He’s just 27 and a clear franchise tag player.

Verdict: Obviously

Carolina Panthers — CB Josh Norman

Norman played great last season and he’s not going anywhere. He’s either getting a long-term deal or getting tagged.

Verdict: Easy decision

NEAR LOCKS

Washington Redskins — QB Kirk Cousins

An interesting case. Redskins general manager Scot McCloughan said this week he won’t “ruin the franchise” to re-sign Cousins, but what does that even mean? You either pay him or let him go and start over at quarterback, and who thinks the latter will happen? Letting Cousins play out the franchise tag actually makes a lot of sense for the Redskins if they can’t come to a long-term deal they like. They can’t really know if Cousins is worth a $100 million deal based on two great months. The franchise tag would allow them another year to more accurately assess his value.

Verdict: Even at $19.6 million he’s getting tagged, that’s just the way the NFL operates with quarterbacks

Chicago Bears — WR Alshon Jeffery

There were some rumblings earlier this month that the Bears wouldn’t tag Jeffery. What sense would that make? The Bears don’t have a ton of skill-position talent and Jeffery is their best weapon. Also, the free-agent class at receiver is really weak, so there wouldn’t be a way to replace him. And Chicago has a ton of cap room.

Verdict: Would be crazy if they didn’t

Kansas City Chiefs — S Eric Berry

Berry is one of the best strong safeties in the NFL, and the Chiefs usually use the franchise tag. The price for safeties is $10.6 million, and if a long-term deal can’t get done, it makes sense.

Verdict: Nobody would be surprised

TOUGHER CALLS

Buffalo Bills — OT Cordy Glenn

Glenn is a player who is worth the tag, as a top left tackle. But the Bills don’t have a ton of cap room either, and $13.5 million is steep. Buffalo could afford it, cap wise, but it would impact their flexibility for the rest of free agency.

Verdict: Probably, but understandable if they don’t because of their cap situation

Miami Dolphins — DE Olivier Vernon

Another case in which the player in question is worth the franchise tag, but it would really affect the team’s ability to make moves in free agency. The $15.4 million price is tough for a team without a ton of cap room. Vernon is a good, young player, but this is a tough call.

Verdict: Likely can’t have that much money wrapped up in two defensive linemen

Oakland Raiders — OT Donald Penn or P Marquette King

The Raiders have a lot of cap room, but don’t often use the franchise tag. Penn is a priority free agent for them, as Derek Carr’s left tackle, but $13.5 million for him seems like a lot. But what about $4.5 million for King? It’s better than losing a good young punter in free agency, if a deal can’t get done.

Verdict: Doubtful, though it seems to fit for King

New York Giants — K Josh Brown

As we know, the tag for punter and kickers is cheap, so why not? Brown is worth it. It’s noteworthy that all reports out of New York indicate there’s no desire to tag defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul again. They did so last year, but that was before a fireworks accident severely injured his hand.

Verdict: For Brown, the price is right

Philadelphia Eagles — QB Sam Bradford

Bradford has been overpaid his whole career, as a result of being the last No. 1 pick under the old rookie salary structure, so what’s another $19.6 million? Most reports say the Eagles aren’t interested in tagging Bradford, though NFL teams do crazy things all the time when it comes to quarterbacks. Still, for a quarterback who has never really played that well in the NFL, almost $20 million on the franchise tag seems outrageous.

Verdict: No way

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — RB Doug Martin

Martin was second in the NFL in rushing last season, and he’s still young. Still, big long-term deals with running backs are rarely growth stocks. Paying Martin $11.5 million on the franchise tag for one year is expensive, but at least it’s not a long-term commitment. Still, with a good backup in Charles Sims waiting, the Buccaneers can probably invest that money elsewhere.

Verdict: Probably not the best move

Los Angeles Rams — CB Janoris Jenkins or CB Trumaine Johnson

The Rams face the possibility of losing both starting corners in free agency. They could lock up one with the franchise tag, however. The estimated cost for cornerbacks is $13.7 million, which is a lot for either Jenkins or Johnson, however.

Verdict: Probably not, but maybe a cheaper transition tag for one

– – – – – – –

Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab