The Numbers Game: DFS: Price-to-Points Index
Today’s column takes a deep dive into the DFS pool. I’m looking specifically at ways to measure a player’s value relative to their salary, with consideration also given to matchups. If you’re not interested in DFS, this column should still interest you if you participate in auction drafts — the same principles in this column are applicable to assessing the ‘dollar value’ of players on draft day.
You can follow me on Twitter @Knaus_RW.
Last week I suggested that I’d be examining the fantasy impact of rest (one days’ rest, two days, etc.), but that’s been postponed while I determine the best way to approach the topic. Let’s get started.
Building a truly competitive DFS lineup is complicated business. In a column earlier this season (The ABCs of DFS) I discussed some of the most important variables to consider: injuries, lineups/rotations, playing time, matchups, home/away, days’ rest, usage rates, over/unders and spreads, positional scarcity or abundance, and fantasy points per minute. A sophisticated spreadsheet is essential to crunch so many variables, but for the purposes of this column we’ll start slow with an ‘index’ of each player’s DFS value relative to their salary/price. (Note: I’m looking explicitly at players on the 20 teams that are active this Wednesday, Feb. 24.)
Before moving forward, let’s take a look at the raw DFS scores for these players. I’m using raw stats for the past two weeks, which are then multiplied to mirror the scoring system of DFS leagues (specifically, FanDuel):
| Player | DFS Pts | DFS Reb | DFS Ast | DFS Stl | DFS Blk | DFS To |
| Luol Deng | 23.33 | 14.80 | 2.50 | 3.33 | 0.00 | -0.67 |
| Goran Dragic | 21.67 | 8.00 | 11.50 | 2.67 | 0.67 | -2.00 |
| Hassan Whiteside | 22.00 | 24.60 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 8.00 | -1.00 |
| Josh McRoberts | 10.67 | 6.00 | 8.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Justise Winslow | 14.00 | 8.80 | 2.50 | 4.00 | 0.00 | -1.33 |
| Vince Carter | 14.00 | 5.60 | 1.50 | 3.33 | 0.00 | -1.33 |
| Patty Mills | 15.50 | 3.30 | 7.88 | 2.00 | 0.50 | -1.25 |
| Tristan Thompson | 11.25 | 12.90 | 1.88 | 1.50 | 2.50 | -0.25 |
| Ian Mahinmi | 13.00 | 10.20 | 3.38 | 3.00 | 2.50 | -2.25 |
| Deron Williams | 20.00 | 4.20 | 11.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | -2.50 |
| Bobby Portis | 12.50 | 10.50 | 1.88 | 0.50 | 1.00 | -1.50 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 29.00 | 8.40 | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 | -2.00 |
| Lance Stephenson | 14.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| JaMychal Green | 8.67 | 8.40 | 1.50 | 3.33 | 2.00 | -0.33 |
| Robin Lopez | 19.00 | 14.40 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 2.00 | -1.67 |
| J.J. Barea | 13.50 | 2.40 | 5.25 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Jordan Clarkson | 19.25 | 6.30 | 7.50 | 3.00 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Tony Parker | 20.33 | 1.60 | 7.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | -1.33 |
| Klay Thompson | 26.50 | 4.50 | 3.00 | 6.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| D.J. Augustin | 10.33 | 2.40 | 7.00 | 2.67 | 0.00 | -2.67 |
| Cory Joseph | 11.50 | 4.50 | 5.63 | 1.50 | 0.00 | -0.75 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 34.67 | 16.40 | 4.50 | 2.67 | 4.00 | -4.33 |
| Doug McDermott | 16.50 | 2.40 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.50 | -1.00 |
| Zaza Pachulia | 10.00 | 17.40 | 2.25 | 4.00 | 0.00 | -3.00 |
| Jared Dudley | 10.80 | 5.76 | 5.70 | 0.80 | 2.40 | -1.20 |
| Darren Collison | 17.00 | 3.60 | 5.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | -1.33 |
| Chris Paul | 25.75 | 5.70 | 16.88 | 3.50 | 1.00 | -1.50 |
| Brandon Bass | 10.25 | 5.70 | 1.13 | 1.50 | 2.50 | -1.25 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 24.50 | 14.10 | 4.50 | 1.00 | 5.00 | -1.50 |
| Bismack Biyombo | 5.50 | 8.10 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 5.00 | -0.75 |
| Cody Zeller | 14.67 | 8.40 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.33 |
| Robert Covington | 17.50 | 5.40 | 1.13 | 4.50 | 0.00 | -2.75 |
| Rudy Gay | 20.67 | 6.80 | 3.00 | 5.33 | 4.00 | -3.33 |
| Serge Ibaka | 14.00 | 8.40 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 3.33 | -1.00 |
| Reggie Jackson | 24.33 | 4.00 | 6.50 | 2.00 | 0.67 | -2.67 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | 8.00 | 7.20 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 2.67 | -2.33 |
| Andre Drummond | 15.75 | 17.70 | 1.88 | 4.50 | 5.00 | -1.00 |
| E’Twaun Moore | 11.50 | 5.40 | 4.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | -1.50 |
| Marcin Gortat | 17.20 | 12.72 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 3.60 | -1.20 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 15.75 | 19.50 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.00 | -2.50 |
| Zach LaVine | 16.25 | 4.80 | 4.13 | 1.00 | 0.50 | -2.25 |
| J.J. Redick | 20.50 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Andrew Bogut | 3.00 | 9.20 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 7.33 | -0.67 |
| Jeremy Lin | 9.67 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 5.33 | 2.00 | -1.67 |
| Will Barton | 16.25 | 7.50 | 4.50 | 2.50 | 1.00 | -1.75 |
| Timofey Mozgov | 8.00 | 7.20 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 2.50 | -1.00 |
| Chandler Parsons | 19.50 | 4.80 | 4.50 | 3.00 | 4.00 | -3.00 |
| Patrick Patterson | 9.00 | 6.90 | 1.13 | 0.50 | 1.00 | -0.50 |
| Tobias Harris | 17.00 | 5.60 | 2.50 | 2.67 | 1.33 | -1.33 |
| Jeremy Lamb | 11.67 | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | -0.67 |
| Rajon Rondo | 14.00 | 9.20 | 18.00 | 6.00 | 0.67 | -3.33 |
| Lou Williams | 18.50 | 3.90 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 | -1.75 |
| Ricky Rubio | 12.00 | 5.70 | 15.38 | 2.50 | 0.50 | -2.75 |
| Nerlens Noel | 14.67 | 10.00 | 5.00 | 3.33 | 2.00 | -2.33 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 21.75 | 3.30 | 3.38 | 3.00 | 2.00 | -1.75 |
| Wesley Johnson | 7.75 | 6.30 | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 | -0.75 |
| Carmelo Anthony | 25.00 | 11.60 | 7.50 | 2.00 | 0.67 | -2.33 |
| Kevin Love | 19.00 | 11.70 | 4.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | -0.50 |
| Paul George | 23.75 | 8.40 | 9.75 | 2.00 | 0.50 | -3.00 |
| Derrick Rose | 23.00 | 6.60 | 6.38 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -2.75 |
| Gorgui Dieng | 12.00 | 11.10 | 3.75 | 3.00 | 2.00 | -1.50 |
| Cole Aldrich | 5.50 | 6.90 | 2.63 | 1.00 | 3.50 | -2.00 |
| Jahlil Okafor | 22.00 | 7.50 | 2.25 | 0.50 | 3.00 | -4.00 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | 16.75 | 11.10 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | -1.75 |
| Russell Westbrook | 22.00 | 8.40 | 19.50 | 2.00 | 0.67 | -1.67 |
| Shabazz Muhammad | 13.25 | 3.30 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.50 | -0.25 |
| Mike Conley | 17.67 | 5.20 | 8.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | -1.67 |
| LeBron James | 22.75 | 9.30 | 13.50 | 3.50 | 0.50 | -3.50 |
| Mario Chalmers | 12.33 | 5.20 | 3.00 | 2.67 | 0.67 | -1.67 |
| Myles Turner | 13.50 | 6.90 | 1.13 | 0.50 | 5.50 | -1.25 |
| Nene Hilario | 9.20 | 6.48 | 2.70 | 1.20 | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| Zach Randolph | 16.67 | 6.80 | 4.50 | 2.00 | 0.67 | -1.33 |
| Stephen Curry | 29.00 | 6.30 | 11.63 | 4.50 | 0.50 | -2.50 |
| Steven Adams | 7.67 | 8.80 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 4.00 | -2.00 |
| Jamal Crawford | 16.00 | 3.00 | 4.88 | 1.50 | 0.00 | -3.00 |
| Kyle Anderson | 7.25 | 3.00 | 3.38 | 3.50 | 1.00 | -1.75 |
| Wesley Matthews | 13.00 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.50 |
| Jerian Grant | 7.50 | 3.60 | 5.25 | 0.00 | 1.00 | -1.50 |
| Danny Green | 7.25 | 6.00 | 3.38 | 2.00 | 2.50 | -0.75 |
| Kyle Lowry | 20.25 | 6.60 | 12.38 | 1.50 | 1.00 | -1.50 |
| Pau Gasol | 18.25 | 11.10 | 8.63 | 0.00 | 3.50 | -1.00 |
| Nikola Jokic | 10.25 | 9.90 | 4.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Darrell Arthur | 6.67 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.33 | -1.33 |
| Monta Ellis | 16.25 | 3.30 | 4.88 | 3.50 | 1.00 | -1.25 |
| Gary Harris | 10.75 | 2.70 | 5.25 | 3.50 | 0.00 | -1.25 |
| Kemba Walker | 26.00 | 6.00 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 0.67 | -3.33 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 25.00 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 3.00 | 0.50 | -2.00 |
| Hollis Thompson | 7.75 | 5.70 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.00 | -0.25 |
| Emmanuel Mudiay | 12.75 | 3.30 | 6.38 | 4.00 | 1.00 | -2.75 |
| Nik Stauskas | 10.00 | 2.40 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | -1.50 |
| Kobe Bryant | 19.75 | 5.70 | 3.38 | 1.50 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Joffrey Lauvergne | 9.00 | 5.10 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 0.50 | -0.75 |
| Kyrie Irving | 21.50 | 1.50 | 6.38 | 3.00 | 0.00 | -1.25 |
| Harrison Barnes | 11.25 | 5.40 | 2.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | -0.75 |
| Enes Kanter | 9.67 | 10.40 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.67 | -0.67 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 16.50 | 8.40 | 2.63 | 1.00 | 2.50 | -0.75 |
| Nicolas Batum | 11.33 | 7.20 | 7.50 | 2.00 | 3.33 | -3.00 |
| George Hill | 7.50 | 7.20 | 7.88 | 2.00 | 1.00 | -1.50 |
| Arron Afflalo | 11.67 | 4.40 | 3.50 | 1.33 | 0.67 | -1.67 |
| John Wall | 16.40 | 8.16 | 13.20 | 3.60 | 2.00 | -3.20 |
| Marvin Williams | 10.67 | 6.40 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.00 | -0.67 |
| Isaiah Canaan | 11.50 | 2.40 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| D’Angelo Russell | 11.75 | 3.00 | 6.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | -2.50 |
| Jeff Green | 13.67 | 4.40 | 2.50 | 1.33 | 0.67 | -1.00 |
| Jerami Grant | 7.50 | 5.40 | 3.75 | 0.50 | 4.00 | -2.00 |
| Danilo Gallinari | 19.00 | 4.20 | 3.38 | 3.50 | 0.00 | -1.75 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | 7.67 | 4.40 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 3.33 | -0.33 |
| Otto Porter | 9.40 | 6.00 | 1.50 | 2.80 | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| Draymond Green | 11.75 | 12.90 | 11.25 | 1.50 | 0.50 | -4.50 |
| David West | 7.50 | 3.30 | 3.75 | 1.50 | 1.50 | -1.25 |
| Tim Duncan | 6.25 | 8.70 | 3.38 | 1.00 | 3.50 | -1.00 |
| Courtney Lee | 7.50 | 0.60 | 3.75 | 3.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Bradley Beal | 16.00 | 2.40 | 5.10 | 0.40 | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| Ramon Sessions | 9.20 | 2.88 | 2.40 | 1.20 | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| Devin Harris | 8.00 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Omri Casspi | 8.00 | 8.40 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Julius Randle | 11.25 | 12.60 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.50 | -1.25 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 14.50 | 6.00 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 1.00 | -0.50 |
| Rasual Butler | 7.50 | 3.00 | 0.38 | 1.50 | 2.00 | -0.25 |
| Frank Kaminsky | 5.33 | 6.80 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 0.67 | -1.33 |
| Anderson Varejao | 8.00 | 7.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Kevin Durant | 26.67 | 6.40 | 6.00 | 0.67 | 2.67 | -4.00 |
| Raymond Felton | 6.00 | 4.80 | 4.50 | 3.00 | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| Marcus Morris | 11.00 | 4.20 | 6.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.75 |
| Boris Diaw | 7.00 | 3.30 | 3.38 | 0.50 | 1.00 | -1.75 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5.50 | 2.40 | 5.25 | 2.00 | 0.00 | -1.75 |
| Gerald Green | 6.33 | 2.80 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| C.J. Miles | 10.50 | 1.20 | 0.75 | 2.00 | 1.00 | -2.50 |
| Taj Gibson | 6.25 | 7.50 | 2.63 | 0.50 | 2.00 | -0.50 |
| Nick Young | 10.67 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 12.33 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | -0.67 |
| Aron Baynes | 5.00 | 5.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | -0.50 |
| Markieff Morris | 9.00 | 4.80 | 2.63 | 2.50 | 1.50 | -1.00 |
| Al Jefferson | 12.00 | 7.20 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| Paul Pierce | 7.75 | 3.30 | 1.88 | 0.50 | 0.50 | -1.50 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 13.67 | 4.80 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 2.67 | -1.67 |
| Dwyane Wade | 16.00 | 6.00 | 4.50 | 2.00 | 2.00 | -5.00 |
| Andre Iguodala | 5.25 | 3.30 | 5.25 | 2.00 | 0.50 | -2.00 |
| Luis Scola | 5.25 | 4.80 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 0.50 | -0.50 |
| Josh Richardson | 4.00 | 3.20 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Richard Jefferson | 7.00 | 3.00 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.00 | -0.25 |
| Ish Smith | 10.50 | 2.40 | 9.38 | 2.00 | 0.00 | -2.25 |
| Langston Galloway | 5.00 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amar’e Stoudemire | 4.67 | 6.80 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.33 | -1.67 |
| Jordan Hill | 6.50 | 6.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | -0.50 |
| Cameron Payne | 5.33 | 1.20 | 4.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | -1.67 |
| Jose Calderon | 5.33 | 4.80 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 0.67 | -1.67 |
| Terrence Ross | 8.50 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | -0.25 |
| Marcelo Huertas | 3.00 | 4.80 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Prigioni | 4.00 | 4.40 | 3.50 | 0.67 | 0.00 | -1.33 |
| Roy Hibbert | 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 1.50 | -0.50 |
| Kenneth Faried | 7.75 | 6.90 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.50 | -0.50 |
| Lavoy Allen | 4.75 | 4.80 | 1.13 | 0.50 | 0.00 | -0.25 |
| Marreese Speights | 6.25 | 3.90 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.50 | -1.25 |
| James Johnson | 5.67 | 2.40 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Mike Dunleavy | 7.25 | 1.80 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | -0.50 |
| Garrett Temple | 3.20 | 3.36 | 2.10 | 2.80 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Tyus Jones | 7.00 | 1.20 | 2.25 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Matthew Dellavedova | 5.33 | 1.20 | 5.50 | 1.33 | 0.00 | -2.33 |
| Larry Nance | 3.67 | 4.40 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.33 | -0.67 |
| Matt Barnes | 4.00 | 5.20 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | -1.33 |
| Ryan Hollins | 6.00 | 4.80 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Lance Thomas | 6.67 | 3.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.67 |
| Tarik Black | 3.00 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Charlie Villanueva | 7.50 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.50 |
| Brandon Rush | 3.00 | 3.60 | 1.88 | 1.00 | 0.50 | -0.25 |
| Kevin Martin | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.00 | -2.33 |
| J.R. Smith | 8.50 | 3.00 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Leandro Barbosa | 5.50 | 0.90 | 1.13 | 1.50 | 0.50 | -0.25 |
| Kosta Koufos | 4.67 | 2.40 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | -0.33 |
| Dion Waiters | 3.33 | 2.80 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | -0.67 |
| Richaun Holmes | 4.00 | 1.80 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| Salah Mejri | 2.00 | 4.80 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Quincy Acy | 2.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.33 | -0.67 |
| Kyle Singler | 2.67 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 0.67 | -0.67 |
| Marco Belinelli | 7.50 | 1.20 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.50 |
| Shaun Livingston | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.88 | 0.50 | 1.50 | -1.75 |
| Ryan Kelly | 4.00 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 3.33 | -0.67 |
| Jonathon Simmons | 4.75 | 2.70 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.50 | -2.00 |
| Brandan Wright | 4.00 | 2.40 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | -1.50 |
| Kendall Marshall | 4.00 | 0.40 | 2.50 | 1.33 | 0.00 | -0.67 |
| Randy Foye | 4.00 | 1.20 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tony Snell | 2.75 | 3.30 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 1.00 | -0.75 |
| C.J. Wilcox | 4.33 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | -0.33 |
| Adreian Payne | 2.00 | 3.20 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 1.33 | -0.33 |
| Chris Andersen | 2.50 | 3.60 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.00 | -0.50 |
| Channing Frye | 2.00 | 4.80 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Cristiano Felicio | 2.25 | 2.40 | 1.88 | 0.50 | 0.50 | -0.25 |
| Darrun Hilliard | 3.75 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | -1.50 |
| Glenn Robinson III | 5.00 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| Steve Blake | 3.50 | 0.90 | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Anthony Morrow | 6.33 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.33 |
| Derrick Williams | 5.33 | 1.60 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.00 | -1.33 |
| Ben McLemore | 4.50 | 1.80 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Udonis Haslem | 3.00 | 1.80 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joseph Young | 3.75 | 1.20 | 2.25 | 0.50 | 0.00 | -1.25 |
| Norman Powell | 4.00 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Metta World Peace | 2.00 | 3.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mitch McGary | 2.00 | 1.80 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | 3.25 | 2.40 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Nick Collison | 2.00 | 3.60 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.67 |
| Dwight Powell | 3.00 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -0.50 |
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With those numbers in hand, we can aggregate them to arrive at each player’s DFS scoring average over the past two weeks. Although helpful in itself, we’d prefer to know how that average relates to a player’s overall value — if someone’s DFS average is 20% above the mean, but their salary is 40% above the mean, that player is probably not an efficient option. The result is the column labeled ‘Price to Points Index (PPI)’. It’s as simple as dividing the player’s salary/price by their DFS average.
To the right, you’ll notice another column labeled ‘Matchup Value’, which is exactly what it sounds like — a rough summary of the value (positive or negative) of tonight’s matchup. Thanks to the terrific resource of Hoopsstats.com, I easily obtained numbers for each team’s opponents over the past 10 games, then assigned z-scores in each DFS-relevant category (excluding FTA/FT%). Note that this is a raw metric because it applies to opponents as a team, not by position. In two recent ‘Matchups by the Numbers’ columns I did analyze matchups at the position-by-position level, but didn’t have time for that level of detail today. It’s meant more as an example of how to think about and measure the value of matchups.
To eliminate the distortion of outliers, I’ve excluded everyone averaging under 5.0 DFS points. The lower the PPI index, the better the value over the past 14 days:
| Player | Position | DFS Price | Avg. DFS Points | Price to Points Index (PPI) | Opponent | Matchup Value |
| Luol Deng | SF | $5,800 | 43.30 | 133.95 | Warriors | 0.94 |
| Goran Dragic | PG | $6,400 | 42.50 | 150.59 | Warriors | 0.94 |
| Hassan Whiteside | C | $8,200 | 54.35 | 150.87 | Warriors | 0.94 |
| Josh McRoberts | PF | $3,900 | 25.00 | 156.00 | Warriors | 0.94 |
| Justise Winslow | SF | $4,400 | 27.97 | 157.33 | Warriors | 0.94 |
| Vince Carter | SF | $3,800 | 23.10 | 164.50 | Lakers | 1.28 |
| Patty Mills | PG | $4,600 | 27.93 | 164.73 | Kings | 2.33 |
| Tristan Thompson | PF | $5,000 | 29.78 | 167.93 | Hornets | -0.55 |
| Ian Mahinmi | C | $5,100 | 29.83 | 171.00 | Knicks | 0.02 |
| Deron Williams | PG | $6,000 | 34.95 | 171.67 | Thunder | 0.37 |
| Bobby Portis | PF | $4,300 | 24.88 | 172.86 | Wizards | -0.06 |
| Kawhi Leonard | SF | $7,700 | 44.40 | 173.42 | Kings | 2.33 |
| Lance Stephenson | SG | $3,600 | 20.70 | 173.91 | Lakers | 1.28 |
| JaMychal Green | PF | $4,100 | 23.57 | 173.97 | Lakers | 1.28 |
| Robin Lopez | C | $6,000 | 34.40 | 174.42 | Pacers | -0.41 |
| J.J. Barea | PG | $3,700 | 21.15 | 174.94 | Thunder | 0.37 |
| Jordan Clarkson | PG | $6,000 | 34.05 | 176.21 | Grizzlies | -1.58 |
| Tony Parker | PG | $5,300 | 28.93 | 183.18 | Kings | 2.33 |
| Klay Thompson | SG | $7,200 | 39.00 | 184.62 | Heat | -0.80 |
| D.J. Augustin | PG | $3,700 | 19.73 | 187.50 | Clippers | -1.89 |
| Cory Joseph | PG | $4,200 | 22.38 | 187.71 | Timberwolves | 0.13 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | C | $10,900 | 57.90 | 188.26 | Spurs | -0.84 |
| Doug McDermott | SF | $3,800 | 20.15 | 188.59 | Wizards | -0.06 |
| Zaza Pachulia | C | $5,800 | 30.65 | 189.23 | Thunder | 0.37 |
| Jared Dudley | PF | $4,600 | 24.26 | 189.61 | Bulls | 1.28 |
| Darren Collison | PG | $5,000 | 26.27 | 190.36 | Spurs | -0.84 |
| Chris Paul | PG | $9,800 | 51.33 | 190.94 | Nuggets | 0.08 |
| Brandon Bass | PF | $3,800 | 19.83 | 191.68 | Grizzlies | -1.58 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | C | $9,200 | 47.60 | 193.28 | Raptors | -1.05 |
| Bismack Biyombo | C | $3,800 | 19.60 | 193.88 | Timberwolves | 0.13 |
| Cody Zeller | PF | $4,700 | 24.23 | 193.95 | Cavaliers | -1.11 |
| Robert Covington | SF | $5,000 | 25.78 | 193.99 | Pistons | -0.94 |
| Rudy Gay | SF | $7,100 | 36.47 | 194.70 | Spurs | -0.84 |
| Serge Ibaka | PF | $5,700 | 29.23 | 194.98 | Mavericks | 0.02 |
| Reggie Jackson | PG | $6,800 | 34.83 | 195.22 | 76ers | 1.05 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | C | $3,700 | 18.87 | 196.11 | Clippers | -1.89 |
| Andre Drummond | C | $8,600 | 43.83 | 196.24 | 76ers | 1.05 |
| E’Twaun Moore | SG | $4,500 | 22.90 | 196.51 | Wizards | -0.06 |
| Marcin Gortat | C | $7,100 | 36.12 | 196.57 | Bulls | 1.28 |
| DeAndre Jordan | C | $8,700 | 43.75 | 198.86 | Nuggets | 0.08 |
| Zach LaVine | SG | $4,900 | 24.43 | 200.61 | Raptors | -1.05 |
| J.J. Redick | SG | $4,900 | 24.40 | 200.82 | Nuggets | 0.08 |
| Andrew Bogut | C | $4,800 | 23.87 | 201.12 | Heat | -0.80 |
| Jeremy Lin | SG | $4,700 | 23.33 | 201.43 | Cavaliers | -1.11 |
| Will Barton | SG | $6,100 | 30.00 | 203.33 | Clippers | -1.89 |
| Timofey Mozgov | C | $3,500 | 17.20 | 203.49 | Hornets | -0.55 |
| Chandler Parsons | SF | $6,700 | 32.80 | 204.27 | Thunder | 0.37 |
| Patrick Patterson | PF | $3,700 | 18.03 | 205.27 | Timberwolves | 0.13 |
| Tobias Harris | SF | $5,700 | 27.77 | 205.28 | 76ers | 1.05 |
| Jeremy Lamb | SG | $3,800 | 18.40 | 206.52 | Cavaliers | -1.11 |
| Rajon Rondo | PG | $9,200 | 44.53 | 206.59 | Spurs | -0.84 |
| Lou Williams | SG | $5,300 | 25.65 | 206.63 | Grizzlies | -1.58 |
| Ricky Rubio | PG | $6,900 | 33.33 | 207.05 | Raptors | -1.05 |
| Nerlens Noel | PF | $6,800 | 32.67 | 208.16 | Pistons | -0.94 |
| Andrew Wiggins | SG | $6,600 | 31.68 | 208.37 | Raptors | -1.05 |
| Wesley Johnson | SF | $4,500 | 21.55 | 208.82 | Nuggets | 0.08 |
| Carmelo Anthony | SF | $9,300 | 44.43 | 209.30 | Pacers | -0.41 |
| Kevin Love | PF | $7,500 | 35.70 | 210.08 | Hornets | -0.55 |
| Paul George | SF | $8,700 | 41.40 | 210.14 | Knicks | 0.02 |
| Derrick Rose | PG | $7,200 | 34.23 | 210.37 | Wizards | -0.06 |
| Gorgui Dieng | PF | $6,400 | 30.35 | 210.87 | Raptors | -1.05 |
| Cole Aldrich | C | $3,700 | 17.53 | 211.13 | Nuggets | 0.08 |
| Jahlil Okafor | C | $6,600 | 31.25 | 211.20 | Pistons | -0.94 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | C | $6,700 | 31.60 | 212.03 | Timberwolves | 0.13 |
| Russell Westbrook | PG | $10,900 | 50.90 | 214.15 | Mavericks | 0.02 |
| Shabazz Muhammad | SF | $3,900 | 18.18 | 214.58 | Raptors | -1.05 |
| Mike Conley | PG | $6,700 | 31.20 | 214.74 | Lakers | 1.28 |
| LeBron James | SF | $9,900 | 46.05 | 214.98 | Hornets | -0.55 |
| Mario Chalmers | PG | $4,800 | 22.20 | 216.22 | Lakers | 1.28 |
| Myles Turner | PF | $5,700 | 26.28 | 216.94 | Knicks | 0.02 |
| Nene Hilario | PF | $4,100 | 18.78 | 218.32 | Bulls | 1.28 |
| Zach Randolph | PF | $6,400 | 29.30 | 218.43 | Lakers | 1.28 |
| Stephen Curry | PG | $10,800 | 49.43 | 218.51 | Heat | -0.80 |
| Steven Adams | C | $4,400 | 20.13 | 218.54 | Mavericks | 0.02 |
| Jamal Crawford | SG | $4,900 | 22.38 | 218.99 | Nuggets | 0.08 |
| Kyle Anderson | SF | $3,600 | 16.38 | 219.85 | Kings | 2.33 |
| Wesley Matthews | SG | $4,200 | 19.10 | 219.90 | Thunder | 0.37 |
| Jerian Grant | PG | $3,500 | 15.85 | 220.82 | Pacers | -0.41 |
| Danny Green | SG | $4,500 | 20.38 | 220.86 | Kings | 2.33 |
| Kyle Lowry | PG | $8,900 | 40.23 | 221.26 | Timberwolves | 0.13 |
| Pau Gasol | C | $9,000 | 40.48 | 222.36 | Wizards | -0.06 |
| Nikola Jokic | C | $5,600 | 25.15 | 222.66 | Clippers | -1.89 |
| Darrell Arthur | PF | $3,500 | 15.67 | 223.40 | Clippers | -1.89 |
| Monta Ellis | SG | $6,200 | 27.68 | 224.03 | Knicks | 0.02 |
| Gary Harris | SG | $4,700 | 20.95 | 224.34 | Clippers | -1.89 |
| Kemba Walker | PG | $8,600 | 38.33 | 224.35 | Cavaliers | -1.11 |
| DeMar DeRozan | SG | $8,000 | 35.50 | 225.35 | Timberwolves | 0.13 |
| Hollis Thompson | SF | $3,500 | 15.45 | 226.54 | Pistons | -0.94 |
| Emmanuel Mudiay | PG | $5,600 | 24.68 | 226.95 | Clippers | -1.89 |
| Nik Stauskas | SG | $3,500 | 15.40 | 227.27 | Pistons | -0.94 |
| Kobe Bryant | SG | $6,500 | 28.33 | 229.48 | Grizzlies | -1.58 |
| Joffrey Lauvergne | C | $3,500 | 14.98 | 233.72 | Clippers | -1.89 |
| Kyrie Irving | PG | $7,300 | 31.13 | 234.54 | Hornets | -0.55 |
| Harrison Barnes | SF | $4,500 | 19.15 | 234.99 | Heat | -0.80 |
| Enes Kanter | C | $5,000 | 21.23 | 235.48 | Mavericks | 0.02 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | PF | $7,200 | 30.28 | 237.82 | Kings | 2.33 |
| Nicolas Batum | SG | $6,800 | 28.37 | 239.72 | Cavaliers | -1.11 |
| George Hill | PG | $5,800 | 24.08 | 240.91 | Knicks | 0.02 |
| Arron Afflalo | SG | $4,800 | 19.90 | 241.21 | Pacers | -0.41 |
| John Wall | PG | $9,800 | 40.16 | 244.02 | Bulls | 1.28 |
| Marvin Williams | PF | $5,600 | 22.90 | 244.54 | Cavaliers | -1.11 |
| Isaiah Canaan | PG | $3,500 | 14.28 | 245.18 | Pistons | -0.94 |
| D’Angelo Russell | PG | $4,900 | 19.75 | 248.10 | Grizzlies | -1.58 |
| Jeff Green | SF | $5,400 | 21.57 | 250.39 | Nuggets | 0.08 |
| Jerami Grant | PF | $4,800 | 19.15 | 250.65 | Pistons | -0.94 |
| Danilo Gallinari | SF | $7,100 | 28.33 | 250.66 | Clippers | -1.89 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | PF | $4,200 | 16.73 | 251.00 | Spurs | -0.84 |
| Otto Porter | SF | $5,300 | 21.10 | 251.18 | Bulls | 1.28 |
| Draymond Green | PF | $8,400 | 33.40 | 251.50 | Heat | -0.80 |
| David West | PF | $4,100 | 16.30 | 251.53 | Kings | 2.33 |
| Tim Duncan | C | $5,500 | 21.83 | 252.00 | Kings | 2.33 |
| Courtney Lee | SG | $3,500 | 13.85 | 252.71 | Cavaliers | -1.11 |
| Bradley Beal | SG | $6,000 | 23.50 | 255.32 | Bulls | 1.28 |
| Ramon Sessions | PG | $3,800 | 14.88 | 255.38 | Bulls | 1.28 |
| Devin Harris | SG | $3,500 | 13.60 | 257.35 | Thunder | 0.37 |
| Omri Casspi | SF | $5,000 | 19.40 | 257.73 | Spurs | -0.84 |
| Julius Randle | PF | $6,100 | 23.48 | 259.85 | Grizzlies | -1.58 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | PF | $6,600 | 25.25 | 261.39 | Thunder | 0.37 |
| Rasual Butler | SF | $3,700 | 14.13 | 261.95 | Kings | 2.33 |
| Frank Kaminsky | PF | $3,600 | 13.63 | 264.06 | Cavaliers | -1.11 |
| Anderson Varejao | C | $3,500 | 13.20 | 265.15 | Heat | -0.80 |
| Kevin Durant | SF | $10,200 | 38.40 | 265.63 | Mavericks | 0.02 |
| Raymond Felton | PG | $4,600 | 17.30 | 265.90 | Thunder | 0.37 |
| Marcus Morris | SF | $5,200 | 19.45 | 267.35 | 76ers | 1.05 |
| Boris Diaw | PF | $3,600 | 13.43 | 268.16 | Kings | 2.33 |
| Aaron Brooks | PG | $3,600 | 13.40 | 268.66 | Wizards | -0.06 |
| Gerald Green | SG | $3,500 | 12.97 | 269.92 | Warriors | 0.94 |
| C.J. Miles | SF | $3,500 | 12.95 | 270.27 | Knicks | 0.02 |
| Taj Gibson | PF | $5,000 | 18.38 | 272.11 | Wizards | -0.06 |
| Nick Young | SG | $3,600 | 13.17 | 273.42 | Grizzlies | -1.58 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | SG | $5,400 | 19.67 | 274.58 | 76ers | 1.05 |
| Aron Baynes | C | $3,500 | 12.70 | 275.59 | 76ers | 1.05 |
| Markieff Morris | PF | $5,400 | 19.43 | 277.99 | Bulls | 1.28 |
| Al Jefferson | C | $5,600 | 19.95 | 280.70 | Cavaliers | -1.11 |
| Paul Pierce | SF | $3,500 | 12.43 | 281.69 | Nuggets | 0.08 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | PF | $6,300 | 22.30 | 282.51 | Pacers | -0.41 |
| Dwyane Wade | SG | $7,300 | 25.50 | 286.27 | Warriors | 0.94 |
| Andre Iguodala | SF | $4,100 | 14.30 | 286.71 | Heat | -0.80 |
| Luis Scola | PF | $3,500 | 12.18 | 287.47 | Timberwolves | 0.13 |
| Josh Richardson | SG | $3,500 | 12.03 | 290.86 | Warriors | 0.94 |
| Richard Jefferson | SF | $3,500 | 12.00 | 291.67 | Hornets | -0.55 |
| Ish Smith | PG | $6,500 | 22.03 | 295.12 | Pistons | -0.94 |
| Langston Galloway | SG | $4,100 | 13.83 | 296.39 | Pacers | -0.41 |
| Amar’e Stoudemire | PF | $4,000 | 13.13 | 304.57 | Warriors | 0.94 |
| Jordan Hill | C | $4,300 | 14.00 | 307.14 | Knicks | 0.02 |
| Cameron Payne | PG | $3,500 | 11.37 | 307.92 | Mavericks | 0.02 |
| Jose Calderon | PG | $3,900 | 12.63 | 308.71 | Pacers | -0.41 |
| Terrence Ross | SG | $4,000 | 12.95 | 308.88 | Timberwolves | 0.13 |
| Marcelo Huertas | PG | $3,500 | 11.30 | 309.73 | Grizzlies | -1.58 |
| Pablo Prigioni | PG | $3,500 | 11.23 | 311.57 | Nuggets | 0.08 |
| Roy Hibbert | C | $3,500 | 11.08 | 316.03 | Grizzlies | -1.58 |
| Kenneth Faried | PF | $5,600 | 17.65 | 317.28 | Clippers | -1.89 |
| Lavoy Allen | PF | $3,500 | 10.93 | 320.37 | Knicks | 0.02 |
| Marreese Speights | PF | $3,500 | 10.78 | 324.83 | Heat | -0.80 |
| James Johnson | SF | $3,600 | 11.07 | 325.30 | Timberwolves | 0.13 |
| Mike Dunleavy | SF | $3,600 | 11.05 | 325.79 | Wizards | -0.06 |
| Garrett Temple | SG | $3,500 | 10.46 | 334.61 | Bulls | 1.28 |
| Tyus Jones | PG | $3,500 | 10.45 | 334.93 | Raptors | -1.05 |
| Matthew Dellavedova | PG | $3,700 | 11.03 | 335.35 | Hornets | -0.55 |
| Larry Nance | PF | $3,500 | 10.40 | 336.54 | Grizzlies | -1.58 |
| Matt Barnes | SF | $4,700 | 13.87 | 338.94 | Lakers | 1.28 |
| Ryan Hollins | PF | $3,500 | 10.30 | 339.81 | Lakers | 1.28 |
| Lance Thomas | SF | $3,500 | 10.20 | 343.14 | Pacers | -0.41 |
| Tarik Black | C | $3,500 | 10.20 | 343.14 | Grizzlies | -1.58 |
| Charlie Villanueva | PF | $3,500 | 10.00 | 350.00 | Thunder | 0.37 |
| Brandon Rush | SG | $3,500 | 9.73 | 359.90 | Heat | -0.80 |
| Kevin Martin | SG | $3,500 | 9.33 | 375.00 | Raptors | -1.05 |
| J.R. Smith | SG | $4,800 | 12.75 | 376.47 | Hornets | -0.55 |
| Leandro Barbosa | SG | $3,500 | 9.28 | 377.36 | Heat | -0.80 |
| Kosta Koufos | C | $3,500 | 9.23 | 379.06 | Spurs | -0.84 |
| Dion Waiters | SG | $3,700 | 9.47 | 390.85 | Mavericks | 0.02 |
| Richaun Holmes | PF | $3,500 | 8.80 | 397.73 | Pistons | -0.94 |
| Salah Mejri | C | $3,500 | 8.80 | 397.73 | Thunder | 0.37 |
| Quincy Acy | PF | $3,500 | 8.67 | 403.85 | Spurs | -0.84 |
| Kyle Singler | SF | $3,500 | 8.57 | 408.56 | Mavericks | 0.02 |
| Marco Belinelli | SG | $3,700 | 8.95 | 413.41 | Spurs | -0.84 |
| Shaun Livingston | PG | $3,500 | 8.03 | 436.14 | Heat | -0.80 |
| Ryan Kelly | SF | $3,500 | 7.90 | 443.04 | Grizzlies | -1.58 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | C | $3,500 | 7.83 | 446.81 | Pacers | -0.41 |
| Jonathon Simmons | SG | $3,500 | 7.70 | 454.55 | Kings | 2.33 |
| Brandan Wright | C | $3,500 | 7.65 | 457.52 | Lakers | 1.28 |
| Kendall Marshall | PG | $3,500 | 7.57 | 462.56 | Pistons | -0.94 |
| Randy Foye | SG | $3,500 | 7.45 | 469.80 | Mavericks | 0.02 |
| Tony Snell | SG | $3,500 | 7.43 | 471.38 | Wizards | -0.06 |
| C.J. Wilcox | SG | $3,500 | 7.40 | 472.97 | Nuggets | 0.08 |
| Adreian Payne | PF | $3,500 | 7.37 | 475.11 | Raptors | -1.05 |
| Chris Andersen | C | $3,500 | 7.35 | 476.19 | Lakers | 1.28 |
| Channing Frye | PF | $3,500 | 7.30 | 479.45 | Hornets | -0.55 |
| Cristiano Felicio | C | $3,500 | 7.28 | 481.10 | Wizards | -0.06 |
| Darrun Hilliard | SG | $3,500 | 7.25 | 482.76 | 76ers | 1.05 |
| Glenn Robinson III | SF | $3,500 | 7.20 | 486.11 | Knicks | 0.02 |
| Steve Blake | PG | $3,500 | 7.15 | 489.51 | 76ers | 1.05 |
| Anthony Morrow | SG | $3,500 | 6.80 | 514.71 | Mavericks | 0.02 |
| Derrick Williams | PF | $3,500 | 6.77 | 517.24 | Pacers | -0.41 |
| Ben McLemore | SG | $3,500 | 6.55 | 534.35 | Spurs | -0.84 |
| Udonis Haslem | PF | $3,500 | 6.55 | 534.35 | Warriors | 0.94 |
| Joseph Young | SG | $3,500 | 6.45 | 542.64 | Knicks | 0.02 |
| Norman Powell | SG | $3,500 | 5.80 | 603.45 | Timberwolves | 0.13 |
| Metta World Peace | SF | $3,500 | 5.60 | 625.00 | Grizzlies | -1.58 |
| Mitch McGary | PF | $3,500 | 5.55 | 630.63 | Mavericks | 0.02 |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | SF | $3,500 | 5.53 | 633.48 | Nuggets | 0.08 |
| Nick Collison | PF | $3,500 | 5.43 | 644.17 | Mavericks | 0.02 |
| Dwight Powell | PF | $3,500 | 5.30 | 660.38 | Thunder | 0.37 |
It’s interesting that five Heat players top the list for PPI. Chris Bosh‘s absence has created more opportunities up and down the lineup, and Dwyane Wade also missed two games this weekend. Luol Deng is catching fire in an expanded role, the Heat are pushing Goran Dragic to be more aggressive offensively, Hassan Whiteside is blowing up, and Justise Winslow‘s modest production looks better due to his dirt-cheap cost of $4,400. Josh McRoberts‘ value is buoyed by one excellent game on Friday, and a decent game on Monday, but it must be noted that he’s been very inconsistent.
With Jeff Green in L.A., and Tony Allen battling a sore knee, we’ve seen an unexpected resurgence from Vince Carter — over the past three games he’s averaging 14.0 points, 2.0 threes, 4.7 rebounds and 1.7 steals. With Tony Allen doubtful again on Wednesday, and P.J. Hairston unlikely to play heavy minutes as a starter, VC’s production could very well continue. Other surging players near the top of the list include red-hot Patty Mills (aided by Manu Ginobili‘s absence), Tristan Thompson, Ian Mahinmi and Bobby Portis.
Already, we see that PPI is influenced by many of the variables mentioned above — injuries have a particularly potent effect, opening up starting jobs, playing time and increased usage for the afflicted player’s teammates. Looking strictly at PPI won’t result in a perfect lineup, of course, and there typically has to be a balance of efficient low-end players and guys who can blow up for 40+ DFS points. Even here we can use PPI and matchups as a guide — Kawhi Leonard, for instance, has an excellent PPI of 173.4 and he faces a Kings team that’s hemorrhaging DFS value over their past 10 games. Compare that to Rudy Gay‘s PPI of 194.7, and his matchup vs. the Spurs, and you have a clear-cut winner at SF.
This was intended as an introduction to PPI and ways to evaluate efficiency and DFS value, rather than a full-on guide to building DFS lineups, but I may return to this theme with a more elaborate approach in future weeks. If you have any questions or insights, you can always send me a Direct Message on Twitter @Knaus_RW. Good luck this week!
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