Brad vs. the Book: Xavier to take down ‘Cats at home

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless and toothless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Wednesday’s selections below: 

Villanova (24-3, 13-12 ATS) at Xavier (24-3, 17-10) – In terms of top-seed line, Wednesday’s Big East battle has enormous implications. The winner will plant deep No. 1 roots, while the loser will likely receive a consolation No. 2. More importantly for the Musketeers, topping ‘Nova would keep it within striking distance of a league title. Currently, the ‘Cats hold a two-game lead. 

Among the elite, Xavier is the one team few are talking about. It crashes the glass, staunchly defends, cashes freebies and distributes beautifully. Freshmen sensation, Edmond Sumner, has especially stood out, whether as a facilitator or scorer. He and his fellow teammates, who were housed 95-64 by Villanova Dec. 31, a game in which Sumner was lost after suffering concussion two minutes in, are hungry to exact revenge.

The Wildcats are equally stout defensively and are nearly undeniable inside, but Xavier has the physicality and balance to match. If the home team can keep Josh Hart and Co. off the free-throw line and win the battle of the boards, it will get its retribution. 

Prediction: Xavier (-1) 77 Villanova 73 

Arizona (22-5, 15-12 ATS) at Colorado (19-9, 14-11) – What exactly is Arizona? A cursory glance reveals a brand name team with an attractive record, high-ranking and presumed Final Four profile. However, peel away the mask, and a pimply resume is presented. ‘Zona has exactly three, that’s right, THREE wins against teams currently listed on the Bracket Big Board. And those victories didn’t come against the Oklahomas or Michigan States of the NCAA world. Not even close. They were logged against fringy Gonzaga, Oregon St. and USC. That’s not exactly impressive.  

To be fair, the Wildcats own a quality starting five. Kaleb Tarczewski, Gabe York and Ryan Anderson are rock solid in their respective games. Key bench contributors Alonzo Trier, Dustin Rustic and Kadeem Allen also aren’t slouches. As a whole, ‘Zona is one of the nation’s finest rebounding teams and ranks inside the top-35 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Still, based on its weak non-conference slate and lack of meaty wins, I have my doubts. 

Colorado excels on the glass and, thanks to the smooth stroke of George King, splashes often from three. Because it also defends extraordinarily well, it should hold steady against the ‘Cats, particularly at home. The Buffs are 14-1 inside the Coors Event Center this year. Feed the dog.  

Prediction: Arizona 72 Colorado (+6) 69

Louisville (21-6, 11-11 ATS) at Pittsburgh (19-7, 11-12) – Due to its untimely post-season ban, Louisville is approaching the finish line. It really is a crying shame. The Cardinals rank inside the top-10 according to most computer measurements, a position that would have easily attracted a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Still, nipping at the Heels for the regular-season ACC title and with the senior duo Trey Lewis and Damion Lee wanting to finish their college careers on a high note, UL remains motivated. 

Pittsburgh is currently in position to land an at-large bid, but it’s not without warts. Porous rotations and opponent dribble penetration have occasionally gashed Jamie Dixon’s man-to-man scheme. Over its past nine games it’s surrendered 1.16 points per possession. Vulnerable both inside and out while also forcing few turnovers, the Panthers aren’t exactly a fearsome animal. 

Louisville dismantled Pitt at the Yum! Center last month, holding it to a wretched 0.65 points per possession. The Zoo will be rockin,’ but the Cardinals’ lock down defense (No. 2 in D efficiency) and fruitful production around the basket give them a sizable advantage. No moose need apply. The visitors take control early and finish strong. 

Prediction: Louisville (-1) 64 Pittsburgh 57 

Other Leans: Michigan (-7), Mississippi St. (+12), Marquette (+7.5), Wisconsin (+8), Oregon (-19), Oregon St. (-4)

Parlay Play: Louisville (-1), Oregon (-19), Colorado (+6) 

Year to date: 115-99-7

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