What to watch for in the Daytona 500

The countdown to the 2016 Daytona 500 is nearly over. The 59th running of NASCAR’s biggest race starts just after 1 p.m. ET on Feb. 21. Here’s all you need to know for Sunday’s race.

THE FAVORITES

• Dale Earnhardt Jr.: NASCAR’s most popular driver has the best car. He’s driving the car that helped get an average finish of 1.75 at the four Daytona and Talladega races in 2015. Junior’s starting third and is a great bet to be near the front the entire day.

• Kyle Busch: Like Junior, Busch won his Daytona qualifying race Thursday night. He too has a very good car and will be starting alongside Junior (at least before the green flag flies and Busch’s teammate Matt Kenseth falls to the back because he’s driving a backup car). And if Busch wins, expect to hear and read the word “redemption” a lot.

• Denny Hamlin: Busch’s teammate won the Sprint Unlimited exhibition race last Saturday night. Drivers don’t tend to do the Unlimited/500 double very often (Dale Jarrett was the last to do it in 2000), but Hamlin has the ability and equipment to do it.

• Joey Logano: Logano ran second to Earnhardt in Thursday’s qualifying race and is the defending champion of the race. He’s become a very good plate racer and will likely also see significant time at the front. Fun fact: The last driver to win back-to-back Daytona 500s was Sterling Marlin (1994-95).

THE SLEEPERS

• Clint Bowyer: Tony Stewart’s 2017 replacement hasn’t had much speed this week. But that may work out in his favor. Bowyer has tended to follow a strategy of hanging back at restrictor plate races until the end. With a car that may not be initially capable of running up front, that strategy is falling in his lap. He could avoid a crash or two and then be at the front by Lap 185.

• Landon Cassill: Cassill got his best career finish at Talladega a few years ago (fourth) and there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again. He’s become adept at hanging in the draft with cars that may not have the most horsepower or handling and assuming he misses the crashes, will be a player for a top 10 again.

DRIVERS LOOKING TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE RACE WITH THEIR CARS INTACT

• Martin Truex Jr., Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth: All three have the ability and equipment to be serious contenders for the win. And winning is the expectation for them. However, we’re not going to blame them one bit for simply wanting to get through the Daytona 500 without crashing. Johnson, Truex and Kenseth were caught up in accidents in the Sprint Unlimited and crashed on the last lap of the second Duel race Thursday night. The qualifying crash meant Kenseth lost his No. 2 starting spot and will have to start from the rear of the field.

OTHER THINGS TO WATCH

• The 2015 edition of the 500 became a bit of a handling race. With long mid-race green flag stretches necessitating green flag pit stops, the field broke out into multiple packs. Will that happen again on Sunday? Many fans think it’s boring. But there needs to be a strategy aspect to the 500. It’s the Daytona freaking 500.

• Chase Elliott’s performance. The rookie polesitter got some good drafting experience during his Duel race on Thursday. He’s got one of the fastest cars at Daytona, so his success may come down to making the right decisions at the right times. If Elliott gets shuffled back in the pack, as rookies tend to do at restrictor plate races, it’ll be interesting to see if he’ll stay with the pack or hang back and be patient.

• The chemistry in Fox’s broadcast booth between Jeff Gordon and Darrell Waltrip. The newly-retired Gordon has been a fantastic analyst for Fox so far. And while there’s potential in the partnership between he and Waltrip, who has been in Fox’s booth for 2001, their interplay has been a bit awkward at the beginning. Gordon is incredibly insightful because of the recency of his driving career. Whenever he makes a strong point, Waltrip has tended to be quick to interject a point in as well. There’s plenty of airtime for the both of them and Gordon is going to be a great asset provided he doesn’t fall victim to the Fox tendency of hyperbole and fake enthusiasm.

• One thing that’s not playing into the favor of a strategy race is the tire management in Thursday night’s Duels. The teams that ran up front throughout the entire race didn’t change tires in the 60-lap race. If tires aren’t wearing out, there’s less of a chance for the race to have an identity similar to last year’s.

• Will we have a test of the new overtime rules? Last year’s race ended under caution and two of the three races so far this exhibition and qualifying season have ended on the final lap because of accidents. If a crash happens on the white flag lap the race is over. But if it happens a lap before, we’re looking at a two-lap dash for the trophy.

BETTING ODDS

• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 5/1
• Jimmie Johnson 8/1
• Kevin Harvick 8/1
• Joey Logano 10/1
• Brad Keselowski 12/1
• Kyle Busch 12/1
• Matt Kenseth 12/1
• Carl Edwards 14/1
• Chase Elliott 14/1
• Denny Hamlin 14/1
• Kurt Busch 14/1
• Martin Truex Jr. 16/1
• Kasey Kahne 16/1
• Kyle Larson 20/1
• Jamie McMurray 20/1

Others of note

• Clint Bowyer 40/1
• Danica Patrick 60/1
• Michael Waltrip 100/1

(odds from VegasInsider.com)

YAHOO SPORTS’ PICKS FOR THE WIN

Nick Bromberg: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Jay Busbee: Kevin Harvick

Jay Hart: Matt Kenseth

Dan Wetzel: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

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