NFL draft: How far might Alabama running back Derrick Henry slip?

There might be no more interesting study in the 2016 NFL draft than Alabama RB Derrick Henry.

Sure, the quarterback class is muddled. Yes, there are injured linebackers Myles Jack and Jaylon Smith to weigh. But Henry’s status is a fascinating study. Even as the Heisman Trophy winner — a man who can get President Obama to give the Heisman pose, as he did in a recent White House visit — Henry is not immediately considered to be draft royalty in 2016.

Heisman winners have gone everywhere from the first overall pick in the draft to being undrafted (poor Jason White), and the 6-3, 245-pound Henry will be taken somewhere in between — but where?

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There are many factors to consider.

First is his position. Running backs don’t tend to be top-10 picks as often as they used to, even those brandishing Henry’s eye-popping numbers: 2,219 rushing yards and 28 TDs last season, including a 36-carry, 167-yard, three-TD capper in the national title game win over Clemson.

Former Bama back Trent Richardson quickly has become the cautionary tale for drafting a back very high, as he’s the only one who has been taken in the top five picks in the past seven drafts. Richardson, of course, has been a colossal bust in the league so far.

But here’s a question worth asking: did Todd Gurley’s success in 2015 change that narrative at all? He was the 10th overall pick last April, and once he returned from a knee injury Gurley was special, winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award despite not being fully unleashed until Week 4. A counter to that argument might be Melvin Gordon, who went five picks later and was a big disappointment in Year 1 for the San Diego Chargers.

Henry is not considered to be the best back in the 2016 NFL draft. That honor, at least according to the majority of teams, belongs to Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott, who is a more well-rounded player. Elliott has better long speed and is expected to be a better third-down option in a league that is still built around the passing game.

Plus, Henry’s incredible workload — 406 touches in 15 games last season, almost 32 carries a game against SEC defenses and 90 carries in two playoff games — is considered a strike against him.

“They ground him down,” a college scouting director told Shutdown Corner. “Nick [Saban] worked him, rode him to a title. If you look at our league, the number of [400-carry backs who] had big years the next year is small.”

The director has a point: There have been 41 players in NFL history with 400-plus touches, with 17 of those seasons coming since 2000. Of those 17, the average reduction in touches the following season was 27.7 percent; the average total yardage reduction was 36.5 percent. Only one of those backs, Ricky Williams in 2003, followed up a 400-touch season with more touches the following season. And only one, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2003, had more yards the next year.

Take a look:

*Williams “retired” during the 2004 season, so we used his 2005 numbers for his follow-up season.

Two other things stand out from the list. There have been only two 400-touch seasons since 2006, and only two backs have had 400-carry seasons following the season in which they turned 27 years old.

“You see these guys flame out quickly too often,” the director said.

As it relates to Henry’s college workload, there have been 15 college players who have had 400-plus touches in a season since 1956 (remember, they play fewer games than in the NFL). Not many of this group have gone on to wildly successful NFL careers thereafter:

Hall of Famers Marcus Allen and O.J. Simpson clearly are outliers from another generation. Of the more recent backs on the list, only Ray Rice and LeVeon Bell have achieved Pro Bowl-level success.

Rice is currently out of the league, tainted by a domestic violence rap, but given that Greg Hardy and Adrian Peterson remain well-compensated NFL players despite similar charges there has to be a football quotient to Rice’s status. His numbers dropped off significantly in 2013 after piling up more than 1,500 touches onto his 5-9, 195-pound frame in his first five NFL seasons, and he just turned 29 — considered to be somewhat old by RB standards.

Even Bell’s workload, as great as he has been in three seasons the league for the Pittsburgh Steelers, is a concern.

“The guy hasn’t finished a season healthy yet,” the director said. “That would be a worry for me if I were them.”

As for Henry, it’s not all bad by any means.

“He wants to bury you,” the director said. “He runs hard and straight, but he breaks tackles. Good luck with that guy, if you’re a safety. Runs upright, but he’s 6-3; you expect that. Eddie George ran upright. I am OK with that.”

The scouting director added that Henry’s big performances in big games should not go overlooked, that his fourth-quarter runs often were some of his best and that Henry in theory could work in almost any kind of offense.

“They run gap, they run man [blocking schemes],” he said. “They use inside and outside zone, old-school run game — traps, counters, stuff like that. Put him in the Panthers’ offense? My goodness.

“But I could see him in the Sean Payton [offense]. I could see him in the Patriots offense. The Jets, the Cowboys, even the Vikings, a four-minute back you finish teams off with. He has a role for sure.”

The director guessed that “as of right now” he viewed Henry as a “top 50 pick” and “maybe a late 1 [first-round pick] to the right team” but that it depended partially on how well he tested at the scouting combine and “how good his feet look” in all the drills, not just the 40-yard dash.

“LeGarrette Blount was a 4.7 guy. Brandon Jacobs was high 4.5s, if I remember [4.56 to be exact]. Even Ricky [Williams], Jamal Lewis, those guy … right in that same range,” the director said. “I’m not expecting anything below a 4.5 [for Henry], but boy if he does, that’s impressive.”

Much about Henry is impressive, in fact, but that doesn’t necessarily guarantee he’ll be a first-round pick in this day and age. It’s just the nature of the position and the league.

“Even though these guys are disposable in some ways, I still think the power run game is cycling back through [the NFL],” the director said, “and he will look good for teams that believe in that.”

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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm