Three keys to the first Duke-North Carolina clash of the season
The first matchup of the season between Duke and North Carolina suddenly looks a lot more appealing than it did a few weeks ago.
The Blue Devils have reeled off four straight victories culminating in back-to-back wins over Louisville and Virginia last week, vaulting themselves back into the AP Top 25 after a rare two-week hiatus. The Tar Heels meanwhile showed some vulnerability in back-to-back losses at Louisville and Notre Dame before righting themselves in a rout of Pittsburgh on Sunday.
With fifth-ranked North Carolina (21-4, 10-2) trying to extend its one-game lead in the ACC and 20th-ranked Duke (19-6, 8-4) desperately trying to get back into the title chase, the stakes are high Wednesday night as they often are when the two Tobacco Road rivals meet. Here’s a look at three keys that could help determine the winner Wednesday night in Chapel Hill:
1. Will Brandon Ingram burn the Tar Heels after spurning the Tar Heels?
North Carolina appeared to be the heavy favorite to land Ingram after voraciously pursuing the McDonald’s All-American for three years, but the Tar Heels lost him to rival Duke last spring. When his recruitment was over, Ingram and his parents acknowledged that the uncertainty stemming from the NCAA’s investigation into the North Carolina program played a role in his decision to go elsewhere.
The sting of that decision has only increased as Ingram has emerged as one of the nation’s top freshmen and maybe the only prospect with a sliver of hope of unseating Ben Simmons as the top pick in this year’s draft. Ingram is averaging 17.2 points and 6.7 rebounds and has scored 20 or more points seven times since Dec. 1.
The matchup with North Carolina could be especially favorable for Ingram because he’ll have 6-foot-9 Brice Johnson defending him. While Johnson is mobile for a big man, he is far more comfortable defending in the post than he is all the way out to the perimeter. That could be a challenge against a player like Ingram, an improving long-range shooter who is also adept at attacking the rim off the bounce.
2. Can Duke keep North Carolina off the offensive glass?
Ingram’s quickness and perimeter shooting may pose a challenge for Johnson to defend, but Duke could have similar issues with North Carolina’s size and strength in the paint. The Tar Heels are one of the few top teams this season that plays with two traditional big men on the floor at all times.
Duke actually intended to frequently play with two big men as well, but the combination of Amile Jefferson’s foot injury and the lack of development of Chase Jeter and Sean Obi have forced the Blue Devils to go with a smaller look. High-energy senior Marshall Plumlee is almost always the lone true big man on the floor with Ingram moving from small forward to stretch four..
While Plumlee has performed better than anticipated for Duke and Ingram has held his own against bigger, stronger players, Jefferson’s absence has been felt most for the Blue Devils on the glass. They’re 279th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, not ideal against a North Carolina team that attacks the offensive boards hard with its frontline of Johnson, Justin Jackson and Kennedy Meeks.
3. Will Marcus Paige’s February resurgence continue?
It’s no surprise to North Carolina fans that a guard enters Wednesday night’s game at the forefront of the ACC player of the year race thanks to his scoring average of 20.6 points per game. Tar Heels supporters just probably would have guessed before the season that guard would be North Carolina’s Marcus Paige and not Duke’s Grayson Allen.
Paige hasn’t been terrible or anything as a senior, but his 13.0 points, 3.7 assists and 36.4 percent 3-point shooting are his lowest since his freshman year. He endured a particularly brutal January slump during which he scored in double figures just once in six games and shot an anemic 21.1 percent from the field during that stretch.
In North Carolina’s past three games, Paige has averaged 16 points, sank 11 of 20 3-pointers and looked far more like himself, a critical development for the Tar Heels. Three-point shooting is one of the few glaring weaknesses for North Carolina, so it’s critical that Paige not continue to struggle from the perimeter.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
