Pre-combine mock draft: Here are our predictions as we head to Indy
We’re one week away from the scouting combine in Indianapolis and we still have more questions than answers about both the prospects as well as the teams and their specific goals in the 2016 NFL draft.
But with the draft order set and the Senior Bowl in the past, we have a better idea of how the draft is shaping up and what its strengths and weaknesses are. The skinny: The defensive line group, especially at tackle, is exceptionally deep. So deep, in fact, that gifted but troubled Ole Miss DL Robert Nkemdiche didn’t land in our top 31 projected picks.
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The combine will be the first step to rehab the image of Nkemdiche, who faces character concerns from NFL teams after he reportedly fell from a hotel window under suspicious circumstances. If he answers NFL evaluators’ questions to their satisfaction, he easily could land in the top 20 picks again.
For now here’s a first guess — pre-free agency — at how things could look in Round 1:
1. Tennessee Titans — Ole Miss OT Laremy Tunsil
There might not be a perfect marriage of player, value and need for the Titans here, but this pick makes a lot of sense, even with Tennessee insisting there’s a market for the top pick. Mike Mularkey-coached teams have used high draft picks on offensive linemen in the past (Kendall Simmons, 2002; Sam Baker, 2008) and could do so here to help better insulate Marcus Mariota. That has to be the priority of the organization after watching Mariota come in and out of games as a rookie after suffering too many hits.
2. Cleveland Browns — Cal QB Jared Goff
Gut feeling: This could change over the next few weeks. The Browns need a quarterback, and there’s a darned good chance they’ll take one here if the QB of their desires remains on the board (a good possibility unless the Titans trade down). Is Goff special? That’s hard to say. Both Carson Wentz and Paxton Lynch have better tools but face questions of experience and level of competition. Still, either could pass Goff in time.
3. San Diego Chargers — Oregon DE DeForest Buckner
He’s good enough to be considered this high, and the Chargers have major needs up front. With only Corey Liuget to build around, Buckner would be counted on as a Day 1 starter, and this is a defense that could see turnover in the back seven. Yes, helping Philip Rivers in his golden years would be nice, but this move makes sense.
4. Dallas Cowboys — Florida State CB Jalen Ramsey
Byron Jones looks like a fixture at safety, and the Cowboys have to realize that Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr are not feasible options at corner. This is a young, emerging defense that needs a big boost in the playmaking department. They forced a mere 11 turnovers last season, and though Ramsey had zero interceptions last season he was always around the ball despite teams often throwing away from his side.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars — Ohio State DE Joey Bosa
This is a good, safe pick for a team that badly needs help at multiple spots on defense right away if Gus Bradley wants to save his job. Adding Bosa and 2015 first-rounder Dante Fowler Jr. to the pass rush will represent upgrades over disappointing Andre Branch and aged Chris Clemons. The secondary also is a high-priority unit that could be addressed if the right player is available here.
6. Baltimore Ravens — Eastern Kentucky DE-OLB Noah Spence
The Ravens need defensive playmakers, especially if Terrell Suggs retires or isn’t healthy enough to return. Spence has some questions to answer about his rocky time at Ohio State, but he mostly has kept clean at WKU and Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome could deem him too special to pass up. Newsome has proven time and time again the ability to sort through players with character concerns, open up their chest and find out what’s inside. Spence has the heart to be great, and he raised his stock significantly with a dominant Senior Bowl week. The Ravens haven’t picked this high in forever and they should land an instant contributor to an underachieving defense in need of some life.
7. San Francisco 49ers — UCLA LB Myles Jack
Pass on a quarterback and take an off-the-ball linebacker? We’re still gathering info on Chip Kelly, his feelings about Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert and how the 49ers will approach the draft from a checks-and-balances standpoint. In 2011, GM Trent Baalke surprised the masses by passing over Gabbert and other quarterbacks in favor of Aldon Smith. Why? Because Smith was a special talent, just like Jack. He’s a rare specimen — injury concerns notwithstanding — who can upgrade the third-down defense immediately.
8. Miami Dolphins — Florida CB Vernon Hargreaves III
The Dolphins’ secondary is a mess: Brent Grimes is turning 33 coming off a down season, Jamar Taylor is struggling and Brice McCain is replaceable. Only five teams allowed more yards per pass play last season, and in a division with Julian Edelman, Brandon Marshall and Sammy Watkins, the Dolphins could use a cornerback who has covered a variety of styles of receivers in multiple techniques and defensive schemes. Hargreaves’ size is a concern, and he was good — not great — last season. But the coverage skill is unquestioned.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Ohio State CB Eli Apple
The Bucs’ secondary is one of the least-talented groups in the league, and former head coach Lovie Smith’s system wasn’t able to make up for that. Apple might be one of the best pure cover corners available, and his size would be a good match against the bigger receivers in the division in Julio Jones and Kelvin Benjamin. Apple is a physical cover corner and a good run defender on the edge.
10. New York Giants — Notre Dame LB Jaylon Smith
You can split hairs on what the Giants’ needs are defensively. We’ll boil it down for you: everywhere. Smith is a Patrick Willis-like talent who — even with a brutal knee injury in the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State — is worth taking in the top 10. With the retirement of Jon Beason, the Giants need a leader and a difference maker. The Giants’ best talents on that side of the ball are all free agents, and none can command a locker room. Smith can, and he could be ready for football-related activities by August.
11. Chicago Bears — Alabama LB Reggie Ragland
A creative, open-minded defensive coach such as Vic Fangio can look at the ways that the Crimson Tide employed Ragland and do some of the same things with him in the NFL. Fangio had Willis and NaVorro Bowman in San Francisco, centering his scheme around them, and Ragland would be a massive upgrade over the scraps who currently inhabit the inside linebacker spots. As a bonus, Ragland also can rush the passer, which just so happens to be a need for the Bears as well.
12. New Orleans Saints — Georgia LB Leonard Floyd
The Saints need help at multiple spots in the front seven, and Floyd can contribute as a nickel rush end and a two-point edge player in the base unit. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has some young talent to work with, but he must get better at rushing the passer to help out a beleaguered secondary. Floyd could be a terror off the edge, and the Saints need all the help they can at multiple spots on defense.
13. Philadelphia Eagles — North Dakota State QB Carson Wentz
The lukewarm response of new head coach Doug Pederson to free agent Sam Bradford, the likely release of high-priced backup Mark Sanchez and talk that the team has kicked around bringing Nick Foles back speaks volumes. This team needs a young quarterback to develop, and Wentz has good potential, size, athleticism, arm talent and poise. But can this big fish in a small pond handle Philly? It’s a legit question. Few at this position can.
14. Oakland Raiders — Alabama DT-DE Jarran Reed
I could be convinced to make this a defensive back, as it’s a major need in Oakland. But it’s also assumed that the front seven is not a need for the Raiders, and this is wrong. As great as Khalil Mack is and as solid as Dan Williams is, there are questions of depth following the retirement of Justin Tuck, plus issues with Aldon Smith (suspension) and Mario Williams (injury concerns). Reed can help shore up the Raiders’ patchy run defense, which was a problem at times last season.
15. Los Angeles Rams — Memphis QB Paxton Lynch
There are a lot of directions the Rams could go to find their next starting quarterback, and they appear determined to kick around all of them. And while landing a rehab project such as Robert Griffin III could preclude the team from drafting a QB high, it shouldn’t. They’ve had 46 draft picks the past five years, and they own three of the top 45 picks this season. If they like Lynch, they should draft him; the Rams have that luxury. Lynch is raw and unrefined, coming from a crude offensive system. But no 2016 QB prospect has his physical traits and potential upside.
16. Detroit Lions — Notre Dame OT Ronnie Stanley
This would be a fortunate turn of events for a team that overlooked its blocking need on the outside a year ago and regretted it. Stanley has the athleticism of a top-10 pick but also has some passive moments on tape that pose issues for scouts. But him landing here makes a lot of sense for an up-tempo offense that needs more balance and reinforcements.
17. Atlanta Falcons — Clemson DE Shaq Lawson
How about that? Clemson to Atlanta is about a two-hour drive, and the Falcons might be tempted to make that trip a second straight April. Vic Beasley was one rare bright spot for an otherwise bad pass rush that netted 19 sacks, and Lawson could team with Beasley again to help juice up Dan Quinn’s defense.
18. Indianapolis Colts — Ohio State OT Taylor Decker
Part of the reason that GM Ryan Grigson and head coach Chuck Pagano butted heads last season (and earlier) was over personnel, and Grigson’s highly questioned first-round pick of Phillip Dorsett went way away from need with other talented players in more dire positions available. Decker is more of an ideal fit, adding some toughness on the edges for a team that has no clear-cut right tackle — Decker’s first position with the Buckeyes.
19. Buffalo Bills — Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell
Sometimes picks like this just happen. The word on the scouting trail for Treadwell is that there is a lot to like about him but perhaps not love. He’s not Dez Bryant, but he has some of those same characteristics and is just as aggressive blocking on the edge in the run game as Treadwell is competing for jump balls. He’s an ideal complement for Sammy Watkins and a clear upgrade over the Bills’ other receivers.
20. New York Jets — Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott
What a nice coup this would be. Landing the draft’s top back, one who has few if any clear holes in his game, would be ideal for a team that wants to win with defense and the run game but also with more speed. As great as Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are, and as good a season as Chris Ivory had running the ball, Elliott would add a different dimension to this offense that has been missing.
21. Washington Redskins — Alabama DT A’Shawn Robinson
GM Scot McCloughan is still in talent-collecting mode and likely less beholden to specific needs in the draft. He toughened up the interior on both sides of the ball a year ago, but that shouldn’t prevent him from doing the same early this draft. Robinson might be the best pure interior player in the draft, and he still has plenty of room to bloom at age 20. People who know McCloughan’s approach say it would not stun them at all to target a talented D-lineman high this spring.
22. Houston Texans — Baylor WR Corey Coleman
Coleman offers what the Texans lack: explosiveness in the passing game. Sure, someone must throw the ball there, and we suspect they’ll be buyers in the QB draft market if the right player comes into range. But Coleman is a tough, ultra-fast and productive player who will take pressure off DeAndre Hopkins and whomever lines up at quarterback. Can Coleman expand his route tree and cut down on drops? Those are the biggest questions, along with his lack of size.
23. Minnesota Vikings — Michigan State OT Jack Conklin
For a second straight year, the Vikings tap into a mentally tough program for their first-round pick. Conklin would allow the Vikings to let Phil Loadholt walk and compete with T.J. Clemmings for a starting spot at right tackle immediately. Turn on the tape of the Iowa and Ohio State fourth quarters, and you’ll see a player who seeks to bury his opponent. A perfect fit on a Mike Zimmer-coached team.
24. Cincinnati Bengals — Ohio State LB Darron Lee
Great as he is, Vontaze Burfict is meeting with Roger Goodell to discuss his repeated flagrant flags, and the Bengals have to be concerned about Burfict’s long-term viability. There are two years left on his current deal, and the Bengals have done a nice job in recent years to draft a year ahead of time for pending needs. Lee offers a burst of speed to the Bengals’ linebacking unit and is a playmaker who could be a stout starter for years.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers — Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander
The league-wide opinions on Alexander are more divergent than many realize, and his lack of production (zero interceptions in 23 career games) and difficulty handling short-area quickness are slight concerns. But watch his play against Oklahoma in the playoff semifinals, and you’ll see a highly competitive and confident cover man who can neutralize gifted receivers. This is a high-ceiling pick, but a risky one.
26. Seattle Seahawks — Kansas State OG Cody Whitehair
A college left tackle out of necessity, Whitehair likely projects best inside in the NFL. The Seahawks have shown they’re not afraid to go outside of league value to land their guy, and Whitehair’s businesslike approach, versatility (some scouts like him as a developmental center) and extreme toughness would be a perfect balance for this band of misfits. The Seahawks also need quality blockers — badly.
27. Green Bay Packers — Baylor DT Andrew Billings
There are some high grades out there on Billings, and he doesn’t turn 21 for another month, which is viewed as both a negative and a positive. On the one hand, he’s still improving and remarkably could add quickness and strength to what appears to be one of the more powerful frames in college football. But Billings is also regarded as immature and in need of guidance. A veteran Packers defensive group could help that, as could Billings being away from some of the distractions of Waco. This is a fascinating player who could play a number of positions up front but works best inside.
28. Kansas City Chiefs — Ohio State WR Braxton Miller
The Chiefs will seek to add as much explosive talent as possible on offense to help open up what was a station-to-station offense once Jamaal Charles went down last season. Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce are plus talents, but adding one more weapon with Miller’s fascinating skill set to the mix really would make Andy Reid’s offense blossom. This feels high for him now, but a blazing 40-yard dash at the combine could land him in the top 40 picks easily.
29. Arizona Cardinals — Utah State OLB Kyler Fackrell
The Cardinals are not afraid to go off the grid a bit with their picks, either in terms of where their picks come from of their unique dimensions and skill sets. GM Steve Keim and personnel VP Terry McDonough are not afraid to look under every rock to find the correct fit, and Fackrell fits what the team is looking for. He’s a long edge player who can cover, rush and play the run. Fackrell and Markus Golden would make an intriguing pair of edge players.
30. Carolina Panthers — Clemson DE Kevin Dodd
With Charles Johnson likely to be released (or have his salary seriously adjusted), and Jared Allen perhaps hitting critical mass at 34 next season, a rush end is a need. Dodd is a one-year starter, but an impressive one at that, and he’s coming off a three-sack, five-TFL national championship game that showed his pass-rush talent. Dodd might take a bit to get up to speed, but this is a title-caliber roster that can afford some development time.
31. Denver Broncos — Louisville DT Sheldon Rankins
Rankins has lined up at multiple techniques on the line and can fit as an inside player or a 5-technique and be a pretty good replacement for Malik Jackson if the price for the impending free agent gets too high for the Broncos. The team reportedly has been sniffing around some of the defensive tackles in this class and could opt to take a chance on someone such as Nkemdiche, having earned some latitude with a Super Bowl title behind a dominant defense.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm