Our best bets for the 2016 Chase for the Sprint Cup and more
We’re spinning our Chase preview a little differently this year. We’ve divided drivers we think are Chase possibilities into three categories. Those in the lock category are going to be in the Chase. Those with a good bet have a greater than 50 percent chance of making the field while those with a chance could make the field and we wouldn’t be surprised. After we go through the drivers we’ll figure out who’s in our 16 drivers and maybe pick a champion.
LOCKS
• Kyle Busch: The 2015 champion will be in the Chase once again. Busch will win a race or two or four this season and lead a Joe Gibbs Racing brigade into the Chase. This could also be the year where Busch has a full season of consistency.
• Denny Hamlin: The driver of the No. 11 is confident and we understand why. He has a strong previous working relationship with new crew chief Mike Wheeler and has become one of the sport’s best on short tracks and at Daytona and Talladega.
• Matt Kenseth: Here’s a bold prediction for Kenseth: he won’t get suspended. Kenseth will once again win a race or more and on the off chance he doesn’t like in 2014, he’ll be consistent enough to easily make the Chase on points.
• Carl Edwards: There may be a bit of an adjustment period with new crew chief Dave Rogers, but Edwards will be fast. If you’re looking for a “sleeper” candidate for the 2016 title, Edwards is the guy. He’s going to mesh well with the lower downforce rules.
• Jimmie Johnson: Is this the year for a seventh title? Johnson tailed off a bit during the summer of 2015, but he was so good in the early part of the season that it didn’t matter. We’re thinking Johnson has a win in one of the first five races of the season.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr.: There will be no drama about Junior making the Chase. We’re also going to go out on a limb and say Talladega won’t destroy his Chase chances for a third season in a row.
• Brad Keselowski: While Joey Logano won six races in 2015, his teammate had one win and it came on a race where he led one lap. Keselowski at least doubles his win total in 2016.
• Joey Logano: Can Logano repeat the best season of his Cup career? We’re guessing he’d gladly take a three-win season if it meant he’d be in the mix at Homestead for a title.
• Kevin Harvick: No, we’re not forgetting Harvick. We just divided the list by teams, so now it’s Harvick’s turn. Harvick’s greatness last year was lost in Busch’s post-injury excellence and Logano’s six wins. He could repeat it in 2016.
• Kurt Busch: A win at Richmond meant Busch’s three-race suspension at the beginning of 2015 was irrelevant. The consistency that eluded him in 2013 at Furniture Row Racing and in his first season at SHR has arrived. He’s good for a win or two and another Chase berth.
That’s 10 drivers who we think will make the Chase for sure, leaving six open spots.
GOOD BETS
• Ryan Newman: He may not win a race, but he’ll top-15 himself into the Chase picture by August.
• Paul Menard: What we wrote about his teammate above applies to Menard on a slightly lower level.
• Martin Truex Jr.: He’s the closest in this group to a lock as the team could be faster with its Toyota equipment. Our only hesitation is the possibility that the team’s 2015 success was a product of the one-and-done rules.
• Kyle Larson: Year three is the time for a Chase berth, right? The team didn’t have the speed to go for wins in 2015. We’ll see if it’s there in 2016.
• Jamie McMurray: As Larson took a step back, McMurray avoided disaster in 2015. Assuming he keeps that up, he’s looking good for the Chase again.
• Kasey Kahne: He won’t miss out on the Chase two years in a row, will he? Even if Kahne has bad luck once again, a win gets him in to the Chase.
We’re not convinced those six drivers will make up the rest of the Chase field. Here are the guys that could take their place.
CHANCE
• Chase Elliott: While the rookie may not win a race in the No. 24, this isn’t going to be a tumultuous rookie campaign. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Elliott get into the Chase without a win.
• Greg Biffle: Can the Biff carry the Roush banner again? Does he have the best chance of any non-Team Penske Ford driver?
• Aric Almirola: … Or is it Almirola, who almost made the Chase for a second-straight season? Richard Petty Motorsports is building its own chassis now.
• Tony Stewart: This depends on when Stewart returns from his back injury. But if Stewart comes back in May and the lower downforce meshes with his driving style like many believe, he could be the second driver in as many seasons to have a heavily-abbreviated season that resulted in a Chase berth.
So who’s the final six from those last 10 drivers? We’re going to go with Newman, Kahne, Larson, Truex Jr., Almirola and Elliott. Don’t get mad though, we’re guaranteed to be wrong.
Speaking of being wrong, here are some predictions for the season that will also undoubtedly be wrong.
• There will be something fluky that eliminates a driver in an elimination race. Yeah, that’s a very vague prediction. But we’re going to go on record and say 2016 won’t have the quantity of wonkiness that 2015’s elimination races didn’t. However, something crazy will happen in the final round of a race to knock a title contender out of the picture.
• A driver will once again make it to the final race of the Chase without winning a race in the Chase’s first nine races. Again, not a bold prediction.
• Much like 2015, the fastest team and manufacturer through the first third of the season won’t be the one that’s the fastest in the Chase.
• 13 drivers win races. Newman, Almirola and Elliott are in to the Chase on points. If 12 drivers win, add Truex to the points category.
• The Wood Brothers won’t miss a race in 2016. The Charter may affect their prize money, but it won’t prevent them from qualifying for any races.
• The lack of a past champion’s provisional means a couple younger and/or under-the-radar drivers will get shots to make a Cup race in 2016. The charter system eliminated the past champion’s provisional (guaranteeing a driver with a Cup title a spot at the end of the field), and as a result, a team that might have hired a former title-winner may take a chance on a younger driver who brings along funding.
• The 2016 Sprint Cup Series champion will be Jimmie Johnson. The other three drivers racing for the title will be Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski.
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
