Draft Strategy: Showdown: Abreu or Rizzo
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
Often in the midst of your draft, you’ll find yourself deciding between a couple players at the same position. With Player Showdowns, we take two players who are closely ranked by Average Draft Position (ADP) and/or Rotoworld’s 2016 season projections and have writers take a side and debate who should be selected first. Whose side will you be on?
We’ll offer up one Showdown per position (catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, third base, outfield, starter and reliever) here, and you can get dozens more by purchasing the 2016 Rotoworld Baseball Draft Guide. It’s an essential weapon to have in your arsenal at the draft table this spring.
Abreu
As if Rizzo’s price tag wasn’t crazy enough last year, now he’s coming off a 17-steal season that doubled his career total (he was just 16-for-28 stealing bases in 436 games over the previous four seasons). If he does that again, then there’s a good chance he’ll provide more value than Abreu. I don’t see any reason to think that will happen, though. Rizzo won’t be catching anyone by surprise this time around (he didn’t as much as last year went along, either; six of his steals came in April and he had just three in the final two months). I trust Abreu more in the power department, especially in a ballpark that favors righty power (Wrigley is about neutral for homers for left-handed hitters). I’d go with Rizzo in an OBP league, but in standard 5×5, Abreu makes more sense to me (he’s averaged a .303-33-104 line in his two seasons to date), with the added bonus that he’ll be on the board a couple of rounds after Rizzo in many leagues. – Matthew Pouliot (@matthewpouliot)
Rizzo
Rizzo burst onto the scene in 2014 when he hit .286 and blasted 32 home runs for the Cubs in only 140 games. He vaulted into super-stardom and became a five-category monster with an incredible 2015 campaign when he slashed .278/.387/.512 with 94 runs, 31 homers, 101 RBI and 17 stolen bases. Abreu is a terrific hitter, and is probably a favorite to hit for a slightly higher average than his cross-town counterpart. Each are expected to club long balls in the low-to-mid thirties with similar projections in the counting stats with 90+ runs and RBI apiece.. Where Rizzo destroys Abreu is on the base paths. Abreu has three successful swipes in his career and didn’t even attempt a stolen base in 2015. While Rizzo shouldn’t be expected to match his unexpectedly awesome total from 2015 (despite a passable 73.9% success rate), there’s every reason to believe that he’ll steal around 8-10 bags. Don’t get me wrong, I still expect Abreu to perform well. I have him placed squarely in my top-25 overall and as the fourth-best first baseman. On the strength of the additional stolen bases, though, Rizzo checks in as the No. 2 option for me at the position behind Paul Goldschmidt. – David Shovein (@DaveShovein)
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