Who’s going to make the Chase in Xfinity and Trucks?
It’s race week! The first race of the 2016 Camping World Truck Series season is Friday while the Xfinity Series gets going on Saturday.
Both of NASCAR’s lower series have a Chase format for the first time. Eight trucks will make the Chase in the Truck Series while 12 cars will make the Chase in the Xfinity Series. Here’s our best guesses for who will make the Chase in both series as well as a few predictions. First up, the Truck Series.
TRUCK SERIES CHASE FORMAT
Three rounds over seven races
• First round: New Hampshire, Las Vegas, Talladega. The lowest two drivers in the Chase standings are eliminated after Talladega.
• Second round: Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix. The lowest two drivers remaining in the Chase standings are eliminated after Phoenix.
• Third round: Homestead. The highest-finishing of the four remaining drivers at Homestead wins the title.
THE DRIVERS WHO WE THINK WILL MAKE THE CHASE
• Matt Crafton: The two-time champion led the series with six wins in 2015. He had more wins, laps led, laps completed and top-10s in 2015 … and he scored 44 more points than he did when he won the Truck Series title in 2014. And he finished third to Erik Jones and Tyler Reddick in the standings. Crafton gets his third title in 2016.
• Johnny Sauter: Crafton’s former teammate is moving over to GMS Racing in 2016. He’s immediately the lead driver on the team and Sauter should get a win somewhere in 2016. He then top-10s his way to the final race at Homestead.
• Tyler Reddick: Reddick won the first race of the season in 2015. If he does it again in 2016 he’ll likely be in the Chase no matter if he gets a second win again or not. Reddick is the co-favorite for the title with Crafton.
• Timothy Peters: Peters won at Talladega and Phoenix in 2015. But he was fifth in the standings because he finished outside the top 20 four different times. A finish outside the top 20 in the new Chase could be disastrous.
• Cole Custer: Here’s a sneaky pick for the title. Custer is driving his first full truck season and he’s got good equipment at JR Motorsports. He’s already won in the series before; there’s no pressure to get that elusive first win.
• John Hunter Nemechek: Another guy who already has a truck win. If you’re rooting for an independent single-truck team, Nemechek is your guy. He’s got talent; will he have the equipment to stay near the front all season?
• Christopher Bell: Bell won last season at Eldora in a part time schedule and he’s running a full season for Kyle Busch Motorsports. We think he’ll get a win at a short track in 2016.
• William Byron: Byron’s first Truck Series start came in 2015. It lasted six laps before he was involved in a crash. Byron is driving for Kyle Busch Motorsports, which has the best trucks on the circuit. He may wreck a few times this season, but he could also get a win.
Notes:
• Eight drivers eligible for Truck Series points won races in 2015. Without Kyle Busch to win races in 2016, it’s very possible that number will be higher, meaning drivers with wins will miss out on the Chase.
• How many races will the caution clock directly affect? There would have been a clock caution in a majority of the races in 2015.
• The points format is slightly different in 2016. Truck fields have been reduced from 36 trucks to 32 trucks and the points system will go 32-1 instead of 36-1.
XFINITY SERIES CHASE FORMAT
Three rounds over seven races
• First round: Kentucky, Dover, Charlotte. The lowest four drivers in the Chase standings are eliminated after Charlotte.
• Second round: Kansas, Texas, Phoenix. The lowest four drivers remaining in the Chase standings are eliminated after Phoenix.
• Third round: Homestead. The highest-finishing of the four remaining drivers at Homestead wins the title.
THE DRIVERS WHO WE THINK WILL MAKE THE CHASE
• Erik Jones: Back-to-back NASCAR titles for Jones? He’s in the best equipment in the series and he won in the Xfinity Series in 2015. He’s our pick.
• Justin Allgaier: Allgaier should be in the title mix. He’s driving the No. 7 for JR Motorsports and will win a race or two or three.
• Ty Dillon: Dillon is also probably going to be in the final four. He may not win a race in 2016, but he’ll be consistent enough to make the Chase with ease.
• Daniel Suarez: Suarez was the highest-finishing Xfinty regular at the season finale in 2015. That’s a boost of confidence if he can make the final round of the Chase. We’re going to say he wins a race in 2016 too.
• Elliott Sadler: Sadler’s tour of the Xfinity Series continues at JR Motorsports, his fourth team since he moved full-time to NASCAR’s No. 2 series.
• Darrell Wallace: If Roush’s equipment keeps up with the Gibbs guys, Wallace has a good chance at a win.
• Brendan Gaughan: Gaughan could get a win again and, like Dillon, will make the Chase with ease.
• Brandon Jones: A third RCR car in the Xfinity Chase? Why not. The Xfinity Series field isn’t exactly deep.
• Ryan Sieg: Sieg was 11th in the points standings last year. He’ll make the Chase on points even if he doesn’t have multiple top 10s.
• Jeremy Clements: Clements was 12th, so what we said about Sieg applies to Clements too. Nothing against either driver; they’re making hay as independent teams and are fighting the good fight. And both will be rewarded for their efforts with Chase berths even if they are out of the Chase after the first round.
• Ryan Reed: Reed’s only top 10 came via his Daytona win last year. Improvement is imperative in 2016 with Roush equipment.
• Jeb Burton: Burton is driving a full season for Richard Petty Motorsports. He could get a win.
Notes:
• Five drivers eligible for Xfinity Series points won races in 2015. There’s going to be a lot of drivers making the Chase field without wins thanks to Cup Series drivers.
• If a driver in the Dash 4 Cash promotion is the highest-finishing driver in two of the four Dash 4 Cash events, he gets a Chase berth. While it’s possible a driver will qualify for the Chase this way, it’s highly unlikely that driver wouldn’t have qualified for the Chase anyway.
• The gap from 1st to 12th in the Xfinity Series standings was 387 points at the end of the season. After 26 races it was 321 points, or the equiavalent of more than seven races. And remember, the points will be reset for the Chase. Yikes.
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
