Brad vs. the Book: Cyclones to blow through Waco

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless and toothless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Tuesday’s selections below: 

West Virginia (20-5, 14-8 ATS) at Texas (16-9, 12-12) – Voracious zombies to a pile of fresh meat. That’s how the Mountaineers defend. Bob Huggins’ basketball brand isn’t the prettiest. WVU, which sorely lacks consistent competency offensively, relies heavily on creating chaos through pressure to wear opponents to the bone. It’s by necessity. Bricklayers from outside (No. 306 in 3PT%), it must force turnovers and generate second-chance opportunities to compete, which it does at a breakneck pace. No club has forced more mistakes or grabbed more offensive rebounds than the Mountaineers. Saying they’re ‘relentless’ would put it mildly.  

Texas, led by guards Isaiah Taylor and Javan Felix, has the backcourt to counter WVU’s press. When the two teams first battled, Jan. 20 in Morgantown, UT committed only nine turnovers. Both schools struggled offensively, but the ‘Horns’ conversions from three and at the free-throw line proved to be the difference. Much improved across the board since then, they should yield a similar result. Recall Shaka Smart’s club has not dropped a home game since December. 

Prediction: Texas (-2) 64 West Virginia 60 

Iowa St. (18-7, 12-9 ATS) at Baylor (18-7, 6-12) – With one paw in the trap, Baylor, on the wrong side in three of its past four, is seemingly desperate to break free. Its setbacks against Texas and West Virginia were understandable, but an 84-66 home skinning at the hands of Texas Tech, a team that previously recorded only one road win this season, was perplexing to say the least. Defensive shortcomings – the Bears allowed 1.203 points per possession in those losses – are mostly to blame. 

If the Bears actually body up and somehow keep the Cyclones’ electric offense in check, Kanye West really is the Walt Disney of our generation. Georges Niang, Matt Thomas and Monte Morris, are explosive scorers who can hurt you in variable ways. Collectively, they shoot over 55 percent inside and 40-plus percent outside the arc. Recently reinstated post-man Jameel McKay is also a critical piece. His activity around the basket will be key against Baylor bigs Rico Gathers and Johnathan Motley. 

Baylor topped Iowa St. 94-89 at Hilton earlier this season. In a nip and tuck game, look for the Cyclones, who have traveled fairly well (4-4 away), to even up the series. 

Prediction: Iowa St. (+3) 88 Baylor 85 

Creighton (17-9, 16-9 ATS) at Butler (17-8, 11-12) – A bubble drama is on tap inside historic Hinkle. Butler, my current last team IN on the latest Bracket Big Board, and Creighton, one of several teams on the projected field’s cusp, desperately need a win to stay in at-large contention. In other words, this one should be highly entertaining. 

Defense is a part of the game Butler refuses to acknowledge. On the season, the Bulldogs rank No. 116 in defensive efficiency. Worse, they’ve surrendered an appalling 1.037 points per possession in Big East action. Giving up 1.10-plus in the category has been commonplace. If Creighton, which rarely turns it over and nets over 54 percent from inside the arc, penetrates the lane, it should have ample space to operate. The setup for point-man Maurice Watson, who gashed Xavier off the dribble last week, and seven-footer Geoffrey Groselle is extremely favorable. In their first meeting, a 10-point win for the Jays, the tandem combined for 30 points, much of their production coming from the charity stripe. 

Featuring Roosevelt Jones, Kellen Dunham and rising start Kelan Martin, the Bulldogs bare sharp teeth on offense. Collectively, they’ve scored 1.155 points per possession this year, the 17th-best mark in the country. However, given the ‘Jays’ respectable defense (No. 42 in D efficiency) and Butler’s persistent guarding allergies, the ATS advantage goes to the visitor. 

Prediction: Butler 76 Creighton (+6.5) 73 

Other Leans: Mississippi St. (+3.5), Michigan (+1), Kansas St. (-3.5), Texas A&M (-9.5), Rhode Island (+8)

Parlay Play: Creighton (+5.5), Texas (-2), Rhode Island (+8)

Year to date: 90-80-3

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