Bubble breakdown: Wisconsin caps win streak with massive upset
It was only a month ago that Wisconsin was 9-9 overall and 1-4 in the Big Ten after a humiliating loss at Northwestern.
Now the Badgers have reeled off seven straight victories to get back into position to not only make the NCAA tournament but perhaps contend for yet another top-four Big Ten finish.
The most impressive win during Wisconsin’s streak came Saturday when the Badgers went to Maryland and toppled the second-ranked Terps 70-57. Wisconsin survived foul trouble for center Ethan Happ thanks to 21 points from stretch forward Vitto Brown and 16 from point guard Bronson Koenig.
Saturday’s victory over Maryland adds to the Badgers’ list of quality wins that already included Michigan State, Indiana, Syracuse, VCU and Temple. That list is offset by several damaging sub-100 RPI losses, most notably a season-opening loss to Western Illinois and December setbacks against Milwaukee and Marquette.
To feel secure about its NCAA tournament hopes, Wisconsin might need to get to 11-7 in Big Ten play, a far more attainable goal now that the Badgers have beaten Maryland. They can afford losses to Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue and still get to 11-7 by defeating Illinois, Minnesota and Michigan.
If Wisconsin indeed makes the NCAA tournament, it will be a huge boost to interim coach Greg Gard’s hopes of earning the full-time gig. The Badgers have improved considerably over the course of his tenure and now boast a top 50 offense and defense.
SATURDAY’S BUBBLE WINNERS
TEXAS TECH (15-9, 5-7): Back-to-back victories over Top 25 opponents all of a sudden have Texas Tech in contention for an NCAA tournament bid. The Red Raiders followed up an overtime home win over Iowa State earlier this week by going to Baylor on Saturday and routing the Bears 84-66. Those two wins are the most impressive Texas Tech has notched all season along with a January victory over Texas. Is that enough to put the Red Raiders into the field of 68? Probably not but they are certainly within striking distance now. They have opportunities for more big wins at home against Oklahoma and at Kansas and West Virginia.
LSU (16-9, 9-3): When LSU suffered five non-conference losses against teams outside the RPI Top 50, the Tigers knew they needed to be spectacular in SEC play in order to earn an NCAA tournament bid. So far they’ve done just that. LSU edged Texas A&M in Baton Rouge on Saturday to remain in a first-place tie with Kentucky. The Tigers boast quality wins over the Wildcats and Aggies to go along with decent wins against Alabama, Vanderbilt and Georgia. Is LSU now a lock? No. But the Tigers are trending toward a bid and need only win three or four of their last six to leave no doubt before the SEC tournament.
MICHIGAN (19-7, 9-4): The Wolverines won twice Saturday. First they got star Caris LeVert back for the first time in six weeks. Then they scored the final 11 points on Saturday afternoon to beat 18th-ranked Purdue 61-56. Michigan was solidly in the field of 68 before this win, and this makes it even more clear cut. The Wolverines now have quality wins against Maryland, Texas, Purdue and no losses outside the KenPom Top 25. They’re in barring a late-season collapse.
ALABAMA (16-9, 6-6): Out of nowhere, Avery Johnson has Alabama in the hunt for an NCAA bid. The Crimson Tide edged fading Texas A&M on Wednesday night and defeated Florida on Saturday night, adding two more quality wins to a resume surprisingly loaded with them. Alabama owns victories against Notre Dame, Wichita State, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Florida and Clemson. That’s a far more impressive list of wins than most bubble teams. The Tide need to keep winning but I’d have them in the field if the season ended today.
Other bubble winners: Creighton (defeated Marquette) Colorado (defeated Washington), Cal (defeated Oregon State), Vanderbilt (defeated Auburn), St. Bonaventure (defeated George Washington), Cincinnati (defeated East Carolina), VCU (defeated Saint Louis), Clemson (defeated Georgia Tech) UConn (defeated Tulsa) Georgia (defeated Mississippi State), San Diego State (defeated Air Force)
SATURDAY’S BUBBLE LOSERS
GONZAGA (20-6, 12-2): Gonzaga blew its last chance to secure another marquee non-conference victory. Kyle Wiltjer suffered through an uncharacteristic 2-for-16 shooting night and the Zags shot 10-for-32 from behind the arc in a disappointing loss at SMU. The good news for Gonzaga is that it doesn’t have a single loss to anyone outside the RPI top 75. The bad news for the Zags is that its two best wins are against fellow bubble teams UConn and Washington. The bottom line for Gonzaga is this: The Zags may be able to slip into the field of 68 even if they suffer another loss, but chancing it could be costly. Gonzaga really needs to win its conference tournament to feel certain.
WICHITA STATE (18-7, 12-2): Eight days ago, Wichita State appeared to be one of the trickiest teams for the selection committee to seed. Now the Shockers could be a tricky bubble team to assess after suffering two losses in Valley play. The only quality opponent Wichita State has defeated is Utah, an upper-echelon Pac-12 team. Beyond that, the best teams the Shockers have beaten are UNLV, Northern Iowa or Evansville. Wichita State didn’t have its full complement of players for several early losses, but that argument matters less now that a healthy Shockers team has suffered losses to Illinois State and Northern Iowa. If Wichita State wins out during Valley play, its possible the Shockers could suffer a conference tournament loss and still sneak into the field of 68. If Wichita State loses again before the end of the regular season, the Shockers definitely shouldn’t risk it.
VALPARAISO (21-5, 11-2): In 11 of its 13 Horizon League games, Valparaiso has won by at least 12 points. The remaining two conference games the Crusaders have played both have resulted in losses against the same team. Four weeks after a previous road loss to Wright State, Valparaiso lost at home against the Raiders 61-59 on Saturday night. That loss is the Crusaders’ fourth against an sub-100 RPI opponent and greatly jeopardizes their at-large NCAA tournament hopes. Valparaiso has a pair of top 100 victories against Rhode Island and Oregon State and a top 30 KenPom rating, but their resume is thin after that. They would probably be wise to win the Horizon League tournament because teams with similar profiles have seldom fared well in the eyes of the selection committee.
Other bubble losers: Butler (lost to Xavier), Tulsa (lost to UConn), Oregon State (lost to Cal), George Washington (lost to St. Bonaventure), Washington (lost to Colorado), Kansas State (lost to Oklahoma State)
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
