Brad vs. the Book: Revenge a dish best served cold for Sooners
Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless and toothless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Saturday’s selections below (FYI, we’re off Sunday):
Kansas (20-4, 13-8 ATS) at Oklahoma (20-3, 10-11) – The last time these Big 12 behemoths faced, Buddy Hield dropped 46, three overtimes were barely enough to decide the contest and no participant left the floor a loser. A classic in Lawrence, it was arguably the game of this century.
Point blank, the Sooners and Jayhawks are evenly matched. Both light it up from three. Both rank inside the top-30 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Both showcase experienced players. Both have limited frontcourt depth. They’re practically mirror images of one another.
The keys to this game are twofold: 1) OU’s predictably electric home crowd and 2) Isaiah Cousins. In the first matchup, the senior guard couldn’t throw a ping pong ball through a hula hoop. A dreadful 2-for-14 from the field, he was essentially a non-factor. If Cousins brings his ‘A’ game and Hield and Woodard crack 50 points combined, an achievable bar, Oklahoma will exact its revenge, possibly by a substantial margin. If not, and whoever holds the ball last will inevitably prevail. Bet on the former.
Prediction: Oklahoma (-4) 84 Kansas 77
Virginia (20-4, 10-12 ATS) at Duke (18-6, 10-11) – Off the high of a 72-65 triumph over Louisville and riding a three-game win streak, Duke still has lingering questions. Can it adequately prevent second-chance opportunities? Whether in man or zone, can it consistently defend a top-level opponent for 40 minutes? Can Marshall Plumlee be overly physical without enticing too many whistles?
On paper, the Devils are very capable of exploiting Virginia’s weaknesses. Though the Cavs’ pack-line D is often impenetrable, their missed rotations/assignments along the perimeter have plagued them at times, indicative in their No. 176 rank in three-point percentage D. Duke, which nets right around 39 percent, from beyond the arc is sure to jack up long-range shots early and often, especially when considering UVA typically cuts off driving lanes.
Ultimately, if Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey win the post battle, Tony Bennett’s bunch should steal one in Cameron. They’re a balanced, well-drilled, efficient team that could gash Duke’s ghost-like D. Escape with a W and a No. 1 seed becomes more attainable.
Prediction: Virginia 71 (+2.5) Duke 69
Texas A&M (18-6, 8-9 ATS) at LSU (15-9, 8-14) – Johnny Jones, quite possibly the poster child of coaching incompetence, has the Tigers between a rock and a hard place. With only one notable win to its name (Kentucky), LSU is a hungry, wounded animal in search of sustenance. Texas A&M, which rank inside the RPI top-30 and has dropped four of its last five, is a fine, well-marinated steak just waiting to be grilled. Cook properly, and the home team may bounce off the bubble and back onto the Bracket Big Board. Falter, and it will surely experience stomach knots on Selection Sunday.
Both teams are suffering defensively. The Aggies have surrendered an uncharacteristic 1.09 points per possession in their past four losses. LSU, meanwhile, continues to act as though the competition is infected with the Zika virus. Poor rotations, wide open lanes to the basket, silly fouls – it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to understand why the Tigers rank No. 110 in defensive efficiency.
If TAMU’s turnover problems (15.8 per game last five), horrendous free-throw shooting (65.8%) and leaky D resurface, a likely outcome, bank on Ben Simmons and friends to score early and often and net a much-needed top-50 win.
Prediction: LSU 79 (-2) Texas A&M 75
Other leans: Butler (-3.5), Purdue (-1.5), Texas (+5), Cal (-9.5), Wisconsin (+9), Wichita St. (-14), Oregon (-6.5)
Parlay Play: LSU (-2), Cal (-9.5), Wisconsin (+9)
Year to date: 83-74-4
Want to throw elbows at Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise.
