Roundball Stew: Stew: Zach Attack
Last week, Roundball Stew brought you a team-by-team breakdown featuring notes from every squad in the East. This week, with the All-Star break upon us, we dive into some recent trends from the West. Proceeding in alphabetical order, as always…
DAL: It’s been a pretty brutal stretch for fantasy owners of Wesley Matthews (last nine games: 8.3 ppg, 34.2 FG), but on a positive note, the minutes are there (34 per game), so I’d stick with him rather than sell low. And hopefully his last game before the break (16 points in 42 minutes on Tuesday) was the start of something. Remember, it wasn’t that long ago that he was posting pretty strong stats (15.0 ppg, 1.3 spg, 3.2 3s in December).
DEN: It’s very easy to overanalyze a single box score, but I won’t rule out the possibility that Wednesday represented a significant shift in the position battle between Nikola Jokic (five points, six boards in 25 minutes) and Jusuf Nurkic (16 points, 11 boards, a steal and a block in 24 minutes). The good news is that both players have shown the ability to put up quality stats in limited minutes, so we could have a reasonably productive Jokic-Nurkic platoon going forward. As for which player I prefer: As solid as Jokic has been lately (last 10 games: 12.0 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.6 bpg, 0.6 3s), I still like Nurkic more in the long run, and in a best-case scenario, because of his potential for blocks.
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GSW: The All-Star break is always a fun time to panic, so let’s take a moment to pretend we’re worried about Draymond Green’s steals, blocks and 3s. In his last three games, Green (1.3 spg, 1.3 bpg and 1.3 3s on the season) has a total of one steal and one trey with no blocks. I really don’t see any reason to fret about the defensive stats — in the three games prior to this recent drought, he averaged 1.7 spg and 2.7 bpg — but the 3s, I will say, are at least worth noting. Consider this: Since hitting five triples against Sacramento on Jan. 9 (a little over a month ago), he has posted just 0.6 3s in 14 games, attempting two or less in 12 of those games. I still don’t think this will be a long-term trend for a player who has averaged 1.4 3s since the start of last season, but if nothing else it’s something to keep an eye on over the next few weeks.
HOU: The Rockets enter the break a half game out of the eighth playoff spot in the West. They certainly have enough talent to stay in the race, but I’d be lying if I said that Dwight Howard didn’t worry me a bit as a future shutdown candidate if Houston falls further out of contention. I don’t think it’s time to panic yet, but given that he’s mauling you in FT percentage at a high volume at the moment (last four games: 10-of-29), and given that the last line in his game log heading into the break is a very shiny 28 and 13, you’ve got some time to see about getting a pretty good haul for a big name player who’s ranked just 71st in 9-category leagues on the season.
LAC: How do you like to get your 3-pointers? It’s nice that J.J. Redick is averaging 16.4 ppg and 2.7 3s with good percentages (47.5 / 87.0) and low turnovers (1.1 per game), but the rest of his numbers — 1.7 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.5 spg and 0.0 bpg on the season — are flat-out atrocious. Consider this: In 49 games, Redick has picked up more than one steal four times. He has two blocks on the season. One game of five or more rebounds. Two or less assists in 42 of 49 games. The rankings do place Redick with decent value (No. 69 on the season), but unless you’re otherwise stacked in rebounds, assists and steals, this is a frustrating player to start on a weekly basis in standard leagues.
LAL: I’ve mostly ignored the piercing headache that is the Lakers in my fantasy leagues this season, but I remain very intrigued by the short- and long-term prospects of one D’Angelo Russell. The No. 2 overall pick has topped 30 minutes just five times since mid-December (spanning 28 games), but he still strikes me as someone who could be putting up big numbers in March — once Byron Scott finally runs out of excuses for holding him back. Russell is already posting some interesting numbers (last five games: 14.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.6 3s), but it’s easy to envision them becoming much more than just interesting as the Lakers’ season continues to plummet further into the commode.
MEM: Now that he’s fully healthy and Marc Gasol (foot) is not, there are glorious days ahead for Mike Conley, who has posted 21.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 5.0 apg, 0.7 spg and 2.3 3s on 54.8 from the field in his last three games. … I generally assume that Jeff Green hot streaks have an expiration date, but now that the aforementioned Gasol is presumed to be out for the season, Green could keep churning out value for a while. Last 13 games: 17.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.0 spg, 1.5 3s, 49.7 FG and 16 or more points nine times.
MIN: How nice of Sam Mitchell to give one of his most promising young players some extended playing time for his awful team. Zach LaVine’s last nine games: 17.6 ppg, 3.6 apg, 0.7 spg, 1.7 3s, 51.2 percent from the field in 31 minutes per game. I still wouldn’t be shocked if Mitchell decides he’s going to bench LaVine again at some point, but fantasy owners who waited patiently through some rough days in January, or added LaVine after he got dropped, should maintain a long-term outlook here. The bottom line is that LaVine — despite a mildly irritating lack of steals — is set up to be a significant contributor during fantasy playoff time. Try not to lose patience if he stalls out again in the near future.
NOP: Norris Cole isn’t exactly a thrilling option, but his numbers since taking over for Tyreke Evans are certainly good enough to tolerate: 14.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 5.9 apg, 0.9 spg and 0.9 3s in nine games. He will only occasionally post a flashy line, but I can live with those stats from a low-end roster option if you aren’t able to get much for him in a trade. … Anthony Davis has just one block in his last three games, a stretch that has seen him average a mere 5.0 rpg. He’s also missing a lot of FTs lately (last five games: 22-of-40). However, right before this relatively quiet last three games, Brow had posted 26.8 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 1.2 spg and 2.0 bpg in his last five. If you’re determined to trade for him in hopes that he dominates during the stretch run, you’ve got a decent window to do so right now.
OKC: Kevin Durant topped 30 points just twice in a 20-game stretch from From Dec. 10 to Jan. 17. In 12 games since, he has averaged 31.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 4.9 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.2 bpg and 2.8 3s, topping 30 points seven times.
PHO: Devin Booker’s FG percentage is too low and his turnovers are too high (40.8 and 3.4 in his last eight games, respectively), but after a career-high 10 assists on Wednesday, he’s now averaging 17.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.9 apg, 0.8 spg and 2.1 3s during that same eight-game run (in 36 minutes per game). … I’m not sure you can get a lot for him in a trade given that most other owners in your league are probably aware of the risks, but as someone who is A) potentially about to get traded to a worse situation, B) potentially about to implode and C) averaging a monstrous 19.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.5 spg, 1.2 bpg and 0.7 3s in his last six games, I would absolutely be shopping Markieff Morris right now to see what you can get. Did that last sentence make any sense at all? A) Yes B) No C) Not Sure.
POR: Moe Harkless certainly has my attention after averaging 14.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.3 spg and 1.3 3s (61.3 percent from the field) in his last three games, including 19 points, 13 boards, two steals and a trey against the Rockets on Wednesday. Given the opponent that he lit up (Houston is tied for second-worst in the league in points allowed per game), I’m not yet hustling to add Harkless until I see him do it again. But I have taken note.
SAC: It’s been a perplexing stretch for Willie Cauley-Stein, who has posted his second-, third- and fourth-highest point totals of the season in his last four games, but has only averaged 4.3 rpg, 0.5 spg and 0.5 bpg during that time. I want to believe that Cauley-Stein is a good stash as a potential difference-maker down the stretch, but at this point his production feels pretty random / hard to predict, and his strong run from late last month (10.2 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.6 spg, 1.6 bpg in five games from Jan. 20-26) currently feels like a distant memory.
SAS: Over his last eight games, LaMarcus Aldridge has averaged 24.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg and 1.6 bpg on 60.2 percent from the field. The way I see it, you could spin that success one of two ways: 1) He’s finally finding his stride after a relatively quiet start in San Antonio (first 41 games: 15.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 0.9 bpg, 48.3 percent from the field); 2) The main reason he got a boost was that Tim Duncan missed seven games during his stellar eight-game run. Personally, I lean slightly toward Option 2, and as a result I view Aldridge as a sell-high heading into the break. Not a must-trade by any means, because 16 and 9 with a block works just fine, but given his name recognition and recent success, it’s worth testing his trade value right now.
UTA: Statistically speaking, Rodney Hood is like a turbo-charged J.J. Redick. Last 11 games: 21.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.1 bpg and 2.8 3s. … Raul Neto’s last six games: 10.3 ppg, 3.2 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.3 3s (50.0 percent FG) in 30 minutes per game. Why? Because we are pretty deep in the alphabet, and some people play in very deep leagues.
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