Can Yovani Gallardo keep producing despite diminished stuff?

(AP Photo/LM Otero) Baseball is almost here. With camps set to open as early as February 18th, it should feel like the offseason has finally come to an end.

But, that’s not the case. A number of useful players still remain unsigned as camps near. Among them is pitcher Yovani Gallardo. The 29-year-old ranked 31st on Jeff Passan’s free-agent ranks, and is now clearly the most enticing pitching option still available.

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In some ways, it’s a surprise Gallardo is still out there. He posted a 2.5 fWAR last season with the Texas Rangers, and had a solid 3.42 ERA despite pitching in a park that strongly favors hitters. At 29, he’s still relatively young when it comes to free agents, and he’s incredibly consistent. Since 2009, Gallardo has never posted an ERA higher than 4.18 or an ERA lower than 3.51.

Of course, there’s one glaring, obvious reason Gallardo is still without a job. Gallardo was one of the 20 players to receive a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason. He declined that offer, meaning the club that signs him has to surrender a first-round draft pick.

The qualifying offer has hurt a number of free agents this offseason. Howie Kendrick re-signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers after other teams didn’t want to surrender a draft pick, and Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler still remain unsigned for similar reasons. If teams could sign Gallardo without giving up a draft pick, he likely would have been off the market weeks ago.

The reason teams are hesitant to give up that first round pick to sign Gallardo is that, despite his success, he’s shown some troubling trends over the past few seasons. Teams are willing to give up draft picks to sign elite talent, so the fact that Gallardo is still out there says something about how he’s viewed by other clubs. If he still effective? Sure. Is he good enough that teams are willing to burn a pick? Nope.

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Part of the reason for that concern is Gallardo declining strikeout rate. During his first few years in the majors, Gallardo threw hard, and racked up strikeouts at an elite rate. His average fastball hit 93.51 mph per Brooks Baseball in 2011, and he averaged over a strikeout per inning from 2009 to 2012.

Things started to change in 2013. Gallardo averaged just 91.58 mph with his fastball, and saw his strikeout rate drop from 23.7 percent to 18.6 percent. His strikeout rate tumbled again in 2014, falling to 17.9 percent. And then again in 2015, when he posted a 15.3 percent strikeout rate.

Despite that, his ERA has remained pretty solid. Over those three seasons, he’s compiled a 3.70 ERA. Combine that with his ability to toss about 190 innings a season, and that makes him a mid-rotation starter on all 30 teams.

Though his declining peripherals haven’t impacted his ERA just yet, the drop in strikeout rate is starting to become a concern. Gallardo has never posted dominant walk rates, and he’s quickly approaching a point where he’s giving himself little margin for error. If his strikeout rate takes another step back, or if he loses just a little bit of command, his numbers could take a turn for the worse.

Very few pitchers are capable of succeeding with Gallardo’s current peripherals. In fact, there were only eight pitchers since 1969 who, at the age of 29, posted similar strikeout and walk rates to Gallardo.

Player	IP	K%	BB%	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Brad Penny	208	15.6	8.4	0.39	0.295	76.40%	3.03	3.63	4.4
Tom Glavine	198.2	15.5	8.0	0.41	0.281	73.60%	3.08	3.49	4.3
Mike Sirotka	197	15.4	8.3	1.05	0.295	71.40%	3.79	4.42	3.6
Mike Boddicker	226	16.0	8.2	1.15	0.268	71.40%	4.18	4.32	3.3
Yovani Gallardo	184.1	15.3	8.6	0.73	0.303	77.20%	3.42	4.00	2.5
Albie Lopez	205.2	15.2	8.4	1.14	0.305	67.80%	4.81	4.52	2.3
Nate Robertson	177.2	15.2	8.1	1.11	0.308	71.30%	4.76	4.62	1.8
John Danks	193.2	15.1	8.7	1.16	0.291	71.90%	4.74	4.76	0.5

The take away from the above chart is that you can still be pretty effective with Gallardo’s skill set. The four pitchers ahead of Gallardo managed to post average to above average ERAs, and were worth at least three wins to their clubs. Even Albie Lopez, who posted a poor 4.81 ERA, was worth 2.3 wins.

Still, if you go further down the list, you start to see the downside of such a questionable approach. It’s tough to really say Lopez is a success looking at his ERA. Nate Robertson and John Danks are hardly encouraging comparisons.

In order to see whether these pitchers continued to succeed despite rough peripherals, I took a glance at how they performed during their age-30 seasons. The results were mixed. Glavine and Boddicker were excellent. Glavine posted a 5.3 fWAR and 2.98 ERA. Boddicker had a 4.0 fWAR and 3.37 ERA.

That’s where the encouraging results end. Danks was mostly the same, Sirotka was hurt and never pitched again and Lopez was transitioned to the bullpen and only tossed 55 2/3 innings. Robertson and Penny posted ERAs over 6.00. It got awfully bad pretty quick for some of these guys.

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Admittedly, this type of analysis isn’t perfect. It’s unfair to just take this small sample of pitchers, look at how they did during one season of their career and assume Gallardo will do the same. But it does show how dangerous it can be to operate with Gallardo’s current strikeout and walk rates.

The two major success stories here are Glavine and Boddicker. Glavine, however, is a Hall of Famer, so it seems foolish to say Gallardo can replicate what he was able to do.

Boddicker was able to remain a solid pitchers for two more seasons before he saw further decline in his stats. His strikeout rate dropped to 10.2 percent during his age-33 season, but he still managed a 4.08 ERA. After that, he swiftly declined.

That could be the best case for Gallardo moving forward. He can still remain a useful mid-rotation option if he retains his current peripherals, though it’s no guarantee. Once he sees another decline, that might be it for him. Boddicker lasted three seasons after he turned 29 before he completely fell off, whichever team signs Gallardo has to hope he can do the same.

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