Player Analysis: By The Numbers Week 26
Tuesday, February 09, 2016
Ah, I’m back after a rather messy period without my favourite laptop available to me. It doesn’t sound like a lot but if you’re a blogger it’s the equivalent of a lorry driver trying to make do with just a skateboard or, for a more football-based analogy, like Barcelona without Messi, Suarez and Neymar – you can still do your job but it’s far harder than it should be!
On the plus side, I now play fantasy football almost exclusively on my iPhone. The apps available for Premier League and Perfect XI are excellent. That’s not to say that all formats are good – try playing Fantrax on just a mobile device and you’ll understand what I mean! It seems to be working for me though and I’m up to 7thin the Rotoworld league and 61stoverall of Perfect XI – that’ll do!
So, what does this week bring us? Well the fixture that stands out most obviously is Man City at home to Spurs. It’s the well-known “unstoppable force hitting an immovable object”. Over the last six away games Spurs have the best record in the league with 4 wins and 2 draws. Conversely, over the last six home games, Man City have the best record with 4 wins, 1 draw and a loss. City have scored 14 goals over that period and conceded 6 whilst Spurs’ record is 12 and 4. It’s a very difficult game to predict and is the epitome of a “six-pointer”. The bookie’s actually make City the strong favourites and as the home team they should be but I’m not convinced – especially after the mauling Leicester gave them and the positive attitude at Spurs – I’ll be backing Spurs and the draw at odds of 1.83 with SkyBet. From a fantasy point of view, I have Alli, Kane and Aguero so I could end up with a monster haul. Let’s see what the Predictor thinks…
Predictor
Well I very much doubt that anyone will be too surprised that Chelsea are sitting out there as the most likely to win – they seem to have come on a bit from their lowest performances. Newcastle are relegation fodder if you ask me so it’s difficult to not like a certain Mr. Costa. Next up come Bournemouth, who have been average but face Stoke who have conceded nine goals and scored none in their last three games – I’m hoping Stanislas is back in form because he could have a field day! The next game is likely to knock peoples socks off! Aston Villa are 57% favourites to take all three points against Liverpool! That sounds crazy doesn’t it but Villa have steadied the ship somewhat with a zero goal difference at home, conversely Liverpool have a -7 goal difference away from home. Lastly Everton look solid value against West Brom. I unfortunately read too much into reports of Lukaku’s injury and sold him before last week’s goal – major faux pas. If you scan a little further down, you’ll see that City are the favourites against spurs although there’s a 54% chance that my team doesn’t lose.
Poisson
Well the stand out feature for goals is again City Vs Spurs, no real surprise there. Who wouldn’t like to see 2-2 end up being the final score? The next most exciting match when it comes to goals is Leicester vs Arsenal which again wont surprise too many people. Then it looks like the spoils should be shared amongst Everton and Chelsea – much as the predictor expected. From there on down it looks like low scoring games with no real headlines. Personally I’ve just put a crazy double bet on Junior Stanislas and Naismith to score at any time – £10 wins £120 which sounds fine to me.
See you next week.
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