NFL Power Rankings: The way-too-early 2016 edition
It’s probably not fair to say the Denver Broncos’ championship window was going to close, win or lose, after Super Bowl 50. But let’s say that it was probably a good idea to beat the Carolina Panthers, just in case.
This will be a tricky offseason for Broncos general manager John Elway. He was very aggressive in trying to win a title before Peyton Manning retired. Mission accomplished. But making another run next season will be a challenge. The Broncos have a ton of questions to answer this offseason. Las Vegas oddsmakers don’t have a ton of faith in the Broncos repeating. There were 11 teams with better odds to win Super Bowl LI than Denver (20-to-1) at the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, as of Monday.
All-world pass rusher and free agent-to-be Von Miller will get the franchise tag, but that will eat up a lot of cap room. We don’t know who the quarterback will be — it’s probably going to be Brock Osweiler, but he was inconsistent and will get a huge pay bump. And if he hits free agency there’s no guarantee he’ll be back. There are a few teams who are desperate at quarterback. If Osweiler escapes and Manning retires as expected, things might get really scary in Denver.
Assuming Miller gets the tag and/or a long-term deal, and Osweiler gets overpaid a bit to stay, that doesn’t leave much for other free agents like defensive lineman Malik Jackson, linebackers Danny Trevathan, running back Ronnie Hillman and guard Evan Mathis. Linebacker Brandon Marshall and running back C.J. Anderson are restricted free agents. Veterans like guard Louis Vasquez and tackle Ryan Clady could get cut to clear up cap room. Pass rusher DeMarcus Ware might not survive Denver’s offseason either, considering cutting him would save $10 million and the Broncos have young rushers Shane Ray and Shaq Barrett behind him.
No matter which tough decisions Elway makes, this will be a much different roster next season.
Elway has done a great job as a GM, and he’ll do fine in reshaping Denver going forward. But you can’t just pencil the Broncos in as the team to beat next season. Not yet, anyway.
It’s way, way too early to power rank all 32 teams for next season, but it’s fun to try. These rankings will shift dramatically once we get through free agency and the draft, so take them for what they’re worth. Consider these power rankings a snapshot as we head into the offseason (and next to each team’s name are the early odds to win Super Bowl LI from the Hard Rock in Vegas):
32. Cleveland Browns (100-to-1)
Maybe Josh Gordon comes back and can finally be trusted. Maybe the quarterback the Browns take second overall will the the right guy, finally. Hue Jackson was definitely a good hire for them. But there’s a long, long way to go.
31. Tennessee Titans (75-to-1)
The Mike Mularkey hiring might end up going wire to wire as the strangest move of the offseason. But the Titans do have a very promising quarterback in Marcus Mariota and have the No. 1 pick. They should be better. They won’t be good, just better.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (50-to-1)
Win totals the last five years: 5, 2, 4, 3, 5. Sure, the offense looked better, but Blake Bortles still needs to show some consistency. It’s hard to trust them to make a huge leap yet, considering they’ve been so bad for so long.
29. San Francisco 49ers (50-to-1)
This Colin Kaepernick-Jets talk gives us something to discuss this offseason, but it’s not like he’s a free agent and it’s not like the Jets seem all that interested. So there’s that. Kaepernick had a bad 2015 and he has a $16 million cap hit for 2016, but it would be foolish for the 49ers to cut him now. They have plenty of cap space, and $16 million is a relatively small investment to see if Kaepernick can blossom with Chip Kelly.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (55-to-1)
With Jameis Winston in place, the arrow is pointing up. And they were more competitive in 2015 than in that horrendous 2014 season. But Doug Martin is a key free agent who might leave, and the Bucs weren’t all that great last season. The firing of Lovie Smith didn’t seem to be too popular in their locker room, so we’ll see if that lingers.
27. New Orleans Saints (40-to-1)
Figuring out how to keep Sean Payton around was huge. And Drew Brees might not be the same guy he was five years ago, but he’s still one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. But the Saints’ impulse spending every free agency period has gutted depth and leaves them with no cap room. They have an astonishing $22 million in dead money on the 2016 cap according to OverTheCap.com. Only one other team (Atlanta, $15 million) has more than $6 million in dead money. Without many quick fixes available, the defense will likely still be awful. It’s not a team on the rise.
26. Miami Dolphins (37-to-1)
The Dolphins, as it stands now, are a projected $5.7 million over the 2016 cap, via OverTheCap.com. Pass rusher Olivier Vernon is a free agent, as is tailback Lamar Miller. Cam Wake is 34 coming off a torn Achilles. The Dolphins will make some moves to get cap relief, and new coach Adam Gase seems to be a good hire, but this Dolphins team was massively disappointing in 2015 and it’s hard to see a path to a huge improvement (unless Gase works wonders for Ryan Tannehill, which is possible).
25. San Diego Chargers (50-to-1)
It might be a little unfair to place the Chargers this low. Injuries were a key factor in a horrific 2015 season, and they shouldn’t be that unlucky again. But with the Raiders improving, the Chargers play in a really tough division and some of their old problems (running game, pass rush) showed very few signs of improvement.
24. Chicago Bears (35-to-1)
It was a promising season, but you have to wonder if Jay Cutler will revert back to old bad habits now that Gase is gone. Also, Alshon Jeffery is a free agent and the Bears need to re-sign him. If not, that receiving corps is really thin. Matt Forte might be on the way out, as well.
23. Atlanta Falcons (40-to-1)
They finished 8-8, but we know the deal. They had a hot start and fell apart. This is a roster with a lot of holes, and then there’s Matt Ryan’s startling struggles in 2015. Dan Quinn could lead an improvement in 2016 but it’s hard to place them much higher than this.
22. Los Angeles Rams (45-to-1)
Still seems a bit odd to call them by their new name. But no matter where they’re playing, the perennially underachieving Jeff Fisher is still their coach and Case Keenum is still their quarterback at this moment. Maybe the Rams make a huge splash at quarterback (they have a ton of cap room) because this front office and coaching staff haven’t accomplished anything and they’re a prime candidate to mortgage the future of the franchise in an attempt to save their jobs.
21. Philadelphia Eagles (35-to-1)
I’m not sure the whole “The Eagles fired Andy Reid just to hire Reid’s top assistant two years later” thing got enough attention. Does that seem like a stable franchise to you? Add in some quarterback problems (I’m sure bringing Nick Foles back would go over well in Philly) and this ranking might end up being way too optimistic.
20. New York Giants (27-to-1)
The Giants lost so many close games that you can see that turning slightly and the record improving rapidly. But the pass rush is still not good, and Jason Pierre-Paul can become a free agent. It’s tough to say whether replacing Tom Coughlin with Ben McAdoo will be a positive, though hiring McAdoo was the right thing to do. The offense needed some continuity.
19. Detroit Lions (40-to-1)
If we assume Calvin Johnson will retire, that’s a massive blow. Johnson isn’t the receiver he once was, but he’s still really good. Unless the running game suddenly gets good, the Megatron-less offense doesn’t look too scary on paper. But this is a team that did play well in the second half of the season, and maybe they carry that over.
18. Washington Redskins (40-to-1)
Could be too low. But they also didn’t beat anyone with a winning record in 2015. Be careful of overrating them just because they won a bad division last season. Now they get a first-place schedule that includes a tough AFC North. Regression could be coming.
17. Houston Texans (38-to-1)
It’s a tough team to rank because we don’t know for sure who their quarterback will be in 2016. But they’ve been good with very little from the quarterback position the past two years. It’s pretty clear Bill O’Brien can overcome roster deficiencies to have a competitive team. But they need to figure out a way to fix the roster deficiencies or the ceiling will always be limited.
16. Oakland Raiders (40-to-1)
This will be everyone’s hot playoff pick for 2016, right? Worked out for the Vikings last year. And it could pay off; the Raiders have a really good young quarterback and a future defensive player of the year in Khalil Mack. There are still some holes to fill, but a lot of cap room. And this time around, Oakland might be a more attractive destination for free agents. They might get a bump up with a good offseason.
15. Indianapolis Colts (15-to-1)
It’s probably too high for the Colts (and those Vegas odds are definitely too low). But this was a popular Super Bowl pick last offseason, and Andrew Luck was hurt for most of the year. But he didn’t play well when he was healthy and the Colts’ roster really looked poorly constructed. This ranking is a leap of faith that they can partially recapture what they had in Luck’s first three seasons.
14. Buffalo Bills (32-to-1)
The Bills have been aggressive in pursuing a playoff berth, and it hasn’t worked out yet. It will be interesting to see if the players mesh better with Rex Ryan in Ryan’s second year. But right now they’re one of three teams over the projected salary cap. And left tackle Cordy Glenn is a free agent, so whatever cap room they get from cutting Mario Williams will likely be reinvested back into signing Glenn. There won’t be a ton of outside help coming to the roster in 2016.
13. Baltimore Ravens (32-to-1)
The Ravens were nowhere near No. 13 at the end of this past season. But it’s hard to think they’ll be down too long. They’re a rock solid organization that was simply battered by injuries last year. There are still some questions, including how quarterback Joe Flacco comes back from an ACL tear and who he’ll be throwing the ball to. Steve Smith will be 37 and returning from a torn Achilles tendon and we have no idea if 2015 first-round pick Breshad Perriman can stay healthy. But it’s best to bet that the Ravens will not be bad again.
12. New York Jets (25-to-1)
Todd Bowles did an excellent job in his first season as Jets head coach, although it ended with a really tough Week 17 defeat. Muhammad Wilkerson is a free agent, though he’ll probably be franchised. Can Ryan Fitzpatrick recapture the Fitzmagic a second straight year? That’s a big question.
11. Kansas City Chiefs (18-to-1)
They seem doomed to be the “just good enough” team. Just good enough to make the playoffs … and that’s about it. And they have three huge free agents on defense: outside linebacker Tamba Hali, safety Eric Berry and linebacker Derrick Johnson. Even if they retain all three, it’s hard to see how the Chiefs make a huge leap in 2016. But they’ll be just good enough, again.
10. Dallas Cowboys (11-to-1)
I’m OK with it if you want to go higher than this for the Cowboys. If Tony Romo is healthy all season, they’re pretty much the same team that looked like a Super Bowl favorite in the 2014 season before Dez Bryant’s playoff catch at Lambeau Field wasn’t ruled a catch. That’s the problem though: Can we expect Romo to last a full season anymore?
9. Green Bay Packers (11-to-1)
Maybe Jordy Nelson’s return to health fixes everything. And he will change the offense, which had zero deep passing game without him. If Eddie Lacy can dedicate himself again, that would help too. But this team also had some really poor performances after a 6-0 start, and we all know they won’t do much in free agency.
8. Minnesota Vikings (17-to-1)
The Vikings are a young team and should keep getting better. Until proven otherwise, the NFC North goes through them now. There should be some concern that Teddy Bridgewater was not very prolific in his second season. He needs to be better. Also, at some point Adrian Peterson will slow down. I know, we think he’ll be great forever, but I’m pretty sure that’s not true. When Peterson does slow down, will the Vikings be able to adjust?
7. Cincinnati Bengals (17-to-1)
Can Cincinnati ever get over the hump? Losing Hue Jackson could be a really tough blow; Jackson had done wonders for Andy Dalton and the offense. The Bengals have some key free agents, most notably safety Reggie Nelson and offensive tackle Andre Smith. It’s still a very talented roster, but it gets harder and harder to buy in after so many playoff disappointments.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-to-1)
Imagine a full season of health for Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. The offense could set records. If the defense improves a little bit — and it wasn’t that bad in December and January — then the Steelers could be really good. If they can stay healthy this time around, of course.
5. Denver Broncos (20-to-1)
They won the Super Bowl, and deserve all the credit they get. That defense takes a rightful place among the all-time great defenses in NFL history. And even if the Broncos lose some pieces off that defense, it will still be one of the NFL’s best units and that’s why they will be contenders yet again. This is a team that has been a top-two seed in the AFC four straight seasons.
4. Arizona Cardinals (16-to-1)
There’s not much separation between the top 5 (maybe the top 6, if you love Pittsburgh’s offense). If you wanted to put the Cardinals a couple spots higher, it’s understandable. They had a great season until a tough NFC championship game loss. There has to be some concern that the two key members of the offense are Carson Palmer, who is 36, and Larry Fitzgerald, who will turn 33 soon. Also, key defensive back Tyrann Mathieu is coming back off an ACL injury. But this team has a lot of good young talent, is well coached, and will be a contender again next season.
3. Seattle Seahawks (10-to-1)
The Marshawn Lynch retirement hurts, but he was likely going to be gone anyway because Thomas Rawls looked great as a rookie and his 2016 salary is a fraction of what Lynch was slated to make. Russell Wilson played very well in the second half and looks like he’s every bit the franchise quarterback the Seahawks paid him to be. There are concerns about keeping everyone paid and happy, which has been an issue the past year, but the core of this great championship team still has at least one more deep run it it.
2. New England Patriots (9-to-1)
The Patriots had to watch Super Bowl 50 and believe that if things broke just a little differently, they’d have won another Lombardi Trophy. Because let’s be honest, they had to feel they could have beaten either Super Bowl team on a neutral field. But that’s life in the NFL — they didn’t get home-field advantage and came up just short against the Broncos. But this was a team that was dominant before injuries struck, and they’ll mostly bring the same team back. We know New England will win double-digit games, win the AFC East, will have a great coach and an all-time great quarterback. This is the safest stock to buy in the NFL, year after year.
1. Carolina Panthers (9-to-1)
The Panthers are in great shape to make it right back to the Super Bowl next season. They have the MVP, Cam Newton. They’ll get top receiver Kelvin Benjamin back. The core of their defense is still in place, assuming free agent cornerback Josh Norman gets re-signed. For the first time in a while they also have a decent amount of cap space. The Panthers went 15-1 this past season and should have a better roster next season.
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
