Brad vs. the Book: Red River bank, Texas a strong play at OU
Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless and toothless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Monday’s selections below:
Louisville (19-4, 10-9 ATS) at Duke (17-6, 10-11) – In light of the Cardinals’ untimely self-imposed ban, the sand in the hourglass is running thin on their season. Instead of sulking about the penalty, UL throttled a JV-level Boston College team 79-47 last Saturday. And that was without star transfer Damion Lee (knee). Though the opponent is much stiffer this time around, Lee’s expected return combined with the Cardinals’ sterling D (No. 3 nationally in D efficiency) give them the edge.
Whether employing man or zone, Duke’s D continues to be a sieve (No. 136 in D efficiency). It’s repeatedly yielded clear driving lanes and numerous second-chance opportunities. Over the Devils’ past seven contests, they’ve surrendered a barf-worthy 1.17 points per possession. Unless Duke drains threes from ridiculous distances, which will be difficult against Louisville’s strong perimeter D (30.1 3PT% allowed), bank on Chinanu Onuaku and friends to clean up inside. That comes to fruition and awestruck Eli faces are sure to decorate the Cameron crowd.
Prediction: Louisville (+4.5) 78 Duke 74
Texas (16-7, 10-10 ATS) at Oklahoma (19-3, 11-11) – After a pair of rough patches early in the non-conference season and again at the beginning of league play, the Longhorns have found their stride, despite the loss of ballyhooed big man Cameron Ridley (foot). Floor general Isaiah Taylor’s stellar execution (27:7 AST:TO split last four) and the emergence of freshman Kerwin Roach has Bevo, winners in seven of its last eight, on firm at-large ground. Formidable on both ends (top-40 in off. and def. efficiency) and deep, Shaka Smart’s club has wore down opponents.
Oklahoma, licking its wounds after a puzzling loss at Kansas St., is anxious to get back on course. Buddy Hield and Isaiah Cousins have played marvelously, but Jordan Woodard needs to establish consistency if the Sooners want to don a Big 12 crown. To keep pace, Texas must pester OU along the perimeter. Exactly 39 percent of the Sooners’ points come from threes. Do that and feature Prince Ibeh in the post, and the ‘Horns score the cover.
Prediction: Oklahoma 75 Texas (+8) 69
Chattanooga (21-3, 12-7 ATS) at Mercer (18-6, 12-7) – The Mocs are the class of the SoCon. Poisoning the opposition with regularity, they’ve stormed out to a 10-1 league record. Couple that with impressive non-conference road wins at Georgia and at Dayton, and this is a presumed double-digit tourney team that should frighten a big boy come March. However, the Bears could temporarily derail their postseason bid.
In the first matchup Jan. 5 at McKenzie Arena, Chattanooga forced 17 Mercer turnovers and limited it to 0.90 points per possession en route to a 12-point win. But don’t expect a carbon copy to occur. The Bears, spearheaded by lane-clogger Stephon Jelks, are an outstanding interior team ranking inside the top-30 in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. If they cut down on the self-inflicted wounds and extend on D, they should exact revenge in what should be a halfcourt slugfest.
Prediction: Mercer 63 (+1.5) Chattanooga 60
Other leans: Army (-3), Georgetown (-14.5), Clemson (-1.5)
Parlay Play: Texas (+8), Louisville (+4.5), Army (-3)
Year to date (including Twitter picks): 72-65-3
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