Bubble breakdown: Vanderbilt’s win could launch late-season surge
The SEC’s biggest underachiever showed how good it can be when playing up to its potential.
Vanderbilt throttled first-place Texas A&M 77-60 on Thursday night, securing its first win over a Top 25 team in four years and sending a message that it’s still capable of a late-season NCAA tournament push despite its previous struggles.
At 13-9 overall and 5-4 in the SEC, Vanderbilt is a quintessential bubble team, one whose NCAA tournament fate will be determined by how it plays the next five weeks. The Commodores have played a tough schedule but they don’t have much to show for it, having only beaten Texas A&M and Florida among the nine RPI top 50 opponents they’ve faced.
What could help Vanderbilt is its upcoming schedule is favorable enough that the Commodores could build some February momentum. They face Ole Miss, Missouri, Auburn, Mississippi State and Georgia during the next 16 days before the SEC schedule stiffens once again the final two weeks of the regular season.
Vanderbilt will win all those games if it plays at the level it did Thursday.
Point guard Wade Baldwin scored 17 points and consistently attacked off the bounce and made intelligent decisions with the ball. Center Damian Jones controlled the paint at both ends with 13 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks. The shooters around Vanderbilt’s two co-stars also sank open shots as Luke Kornet had four 3-pointers and Jeff Roberson sank three.
Last year, Vanderbilt was 1-7 in the SEC entering February but rallied to win eight of their final 10 league games to briefly flirt with an NCAA bid before settling for the NIT. Another late-season push like that, and the Commodores will be back in the NCAA tournament for the first time in four years.
THURSDAY’S BUBBLE WINNERS
WISCONSIN (14-9, 6-4 Big Ten): Three weeks after a deflating road loss at Northwestern left Wisconsin’s NCAA tournament hopes on life support, the Badgers have staged a stunning revival. They’ve won five in a row culminating in Thursday night’s 79-68 home victory over Ohio State. Wisconsin probably would not be in the NCAA tournament if the season ended today, but the Badgers are definitely within striking distance of the 10 or 11 Big Ten wins they’ll probably need to secure a bid. The good news for Wisconsin? Four RPI top 50 victories over VCU, Syracuse, Michigan State and Indiana. The bad news for Wisconsin? A terrible loss to sub-250 RPI Western Illinois and a lethal remaining schedule rife with difficult road games.
CINCINNATI (17-6, 7-3): Cincinnati avoided a damaging loss with ease Thursday night. Guard Troy Caupain scored 18 points and forward Gary Clark added 16 as the Bearcats dusted South Florida 88-57 in a matchup between one of the American Athletic Conference’s best teams and one of its worst. Near misses against Butler, SMU and Iowa State have Cincinnati on the bubble, but the Bearcats do have a pair of quality wins against VCU and UConn. If they can stack wins against the American Athletic Conference’s second tier and pick off either UConn or SMU at home in a few weeks, they should be in good shape to return to the NCAA tournament this March.
THURSDAY’S BUBBLE LOSERS
(None yet, but this post will be updated)
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
