Welcome back everyone. I apologize for taking the last gameweek off, I much needed a break and the slate was certainly not an ideal one. This week isn’t too different, as there are a number of reasons including the fact DFS sites not including a number of players expected to start in the following gameweek. With the transfer window still going, players were transferred in too late to be included in the slate and we are left with a smaller number of starting players to choose from. Thankfully there are eight games, so the slate isn’t a total disaster.
Let’s look at the matches:
Norwich City – Tottenham
Arsenal – Southampton
West Ham – Aston Villa
Sunderland – Manchester City
Leicester City – Liverpool
Manchester United – Stoke City
Crystal Palace – Bournemouth
West Brom – Swansea City
The first thing that pops us Manchester City visiting Sunderland. That could be a blowout, and having some Manchester exposure will be key. Let’s look at the odds:
The sportsbooks really like David de Gea this week. He’s in a good spot visiting Stoke City and presents the highest clean sheet percentage of the week. A few other good options are Lucazc Fabianski and Ben Foster. Both present good cheap options and provide a good upside in tournaments. If you’re looking for a way to move off of De Gea in cash games, your best bet is likely Joe Hart.
An expensive GPP option is Petr Cech, who could get a big number of save opportunities and has a good chance at a win. His ceiling is likely one of the highest of the day.
There is something I’d like to note here. With the new DraftKings scoring, in cash games, it’s something worth pursuing guys who aren’t the most likely to score. Corners, crosses, and shots combine for enough points now that there are cheap forwards worth pursuing who aren’t heavily primed to score. Goals are obviously extremely important, but there are weeks where other approaches work as well. In GPP, things are different, as wins are still highly correlated with goals, and there, we really need to strive to maximize high goal exposure.
This week, the sports books like Sergio Aguero, despite his extremely high price. He gets a great matchup, and will make or break a lot of teams this weekend. It’s very risky to pursue him in cash due to his high price, but it’s worth noting that he can certainly meet value if he scores a brace again. It’s a risk you have to determine whether you’re comfortable with.
Outside of Aguero, there isn’t anyone who sticks out. Out of the cheap guys, I’d recommend Rudy Gestede in cash games, due to his ability to rack up shots and West Ham’s tendency to concede chances, but it’s worth checking if he ends up starting. He also lets you afford Aguero, if you decide to go that route.
Best of luck!
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