Roundball Stew: Stew: Teague Time
At this time of year, many of us are staring with laser focus directly through our monocles at the waiver wire, in search of the next (or perhaps even the current) Myles Turner.
And while we’re straining our eyes to try to find value, I’d also like to take a minute to consider some bigger-name players who have been relatively quiet by their own standards, but could provide a substantial boost with a second-half breakout. Here are a few to keep in mind:
Jeff Teague, PG, ATL
The phrase, deployed giddily by Hawks TV analyst Dominique Wilkins whenever the starting PG takes over a game, is “Teague Time.”
Unfortunately, the clock has not struck Teague nearly as often this year as it has in recent seasons. With a lingering ankle injury at least partially to blame, Teague’s scoring average (14.5), assists (5.5) and FG percentage (42.2) are all the lowest they’ve been in the last three-plus seasons. And in his first 11 games of January, he averaged just 10.5 ppg and 4.3 apg on 38.3 percent shooting.
But lately there have been signs of a Teague resurgence. Over his last three games, the Hawks PG has posted 16.0 ppg, 5.7 apg, 2.0 spg and 1.3 3s on 57.6 percent from the field, including his first 20-point game in nearly a month on Thursday night. Perhaps even more notable, it’s easy to tell when watching Teague whether he’s drifting or whether he’s engaged, and there has been visible evidence lately that he’s finally getting his swagger back, including 16 points against Chris Paul’s Clippers (with some aggressive drives directly at DeAndre Jordan) Wednesday night.
I know that 16.0 ppg over a three-game stretch and a layup or two over one of the league’s better shot-blockers isn’t enough to get you to jump out of your chair and scream with excitement, but the bottom line is this: For a number of reasons, we have not seen Teague at his most dynamic this year, aside from some isolated stretches. But with visible and numerical evidence suggesting that his slump is ending, and more time to heal his ankle over the All-Star break, the last couple months of the season could finally bring some long-awaited vintage Teague.
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Rudy Gay, SF/PF, SAC
To be clear, his season stats have been pretty far from a big disappointment, but when you look at this year versus last year, there are reminders that Rudy Gay is capable of more:
2014-15: 21.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.0 spg, 0.6 bpg, 1.2 3s (45.5 FG / 85.8 FT)
2015-16: 18.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.2 spg, 0.7 bpg, 1.0 3s (46.9 FG / 78.0 FT)
As you can see, he has actually been better in a number of categories this season over last season. However, the scoring average is his lowest since 2012-13, and the second-lowest since his rookie year in 2006-07. Meanwhile, not only has his FT percentage dipped notably, but so have his attempts. Last year, he took a career-high 5.8 FTs per game; this year, he’s at 3.5 — the fewest since his rookie year.
Here too, though, there have been indications of a breakout. Though he has missed four of the last five games with heel and eye injuries, Gay this month has posted 19.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.3 spg, 1.3 bpg and 1.2 3s on 54.0 percent from the field. Also worth noting: His 4.4 FT attempts in January represents his best month of the season so far in that regard, and in his last four games he’s at 6.5 FT attempts per game. Given that he’s currently injured but due back soon, and taking into account his spike in numbers before being sidelined, now is a good time to buy low, to the extent that’s possible.
Elfrid Payton, PG, ORL
Unlike Teague (No. 95 on basketballmonster.com’s 9-category leaderboard) and Gay (No. 36), Payton (No. 199) has not been a reliable fantasy starter for much of the season. His percentages stink (42.6 / 61.7), he doesn’t hit many 3s (0.4), and overall his hair has been the most captivating part of his performance in 2015-16.
However, in his last five games, even including an eight-point, three-dime stinker in his last game on Tuesday, Payton has posted 14.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 6.2 apg, 1.0 spg and 1.0 3s on 49.1 percent from the field. Of course, this isn’t his first stretch of inspired play — from Nov. 27 to Dec. 26, for example, he averaged 14.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 6.2 apg and 1.8 spg on 49.4 percent shooting in 15 games.
As you can probably guess, inconsistency has been the issue, and there are certainly no guarantees that Payton fixes things in that department, especially with a coach who notably likes to ruin fun in fantasy leagues. But as Orlando’s season continues to fall apart (they’ve lost 11 of their last 12), Payton should (in theory at least) have more and more chances to put up flashy numbers. And now comes the obligatory friendly reminder of his strong finish last year: 12.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 8.7 apg, 2.4 spg and 0.5 bpg over his final 21 games. Given his numbers when he’s been at his best so far this season, I certainly wouldn’t rule out a repeat.
And now, a few words on a different topic:
The Noel-Okafor Situation
It’s been discussed many times this season how much better Nerlens Noel has been (and how much better off he’d probably be) not playing alongside Jahlil Okafor. However, I look at the situation somewhat differently. I’ll explain that in a second, but first, here’s a look at a couple sets of numbers:
Noel, when Okafor has not played this season (six games):
14.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.8 spg, 2.2 bpg
Noel, in his last 12 games with Okafor on the court:
10.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.7 spg, 2.3 bpg
As you can see, the effect Okafor has on Noel’s numbers has certainly been overstated to some extent, especially lately. In fairness, Okafor did get limited run (less than 25 minutes) in his first four of the 12 games referenced above as he came back from a knee injury. But even if we throw those four games out, and only look at their last eight games together (in which Okafor has averaged 31 minutes), Noel’s stats still look like this:
8.9 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.6 spg, 2.5 bpg
Does Okafor sitting help Noel’s cause? Certainly. But from my vantage point, Noel’s struggles in November and December may have been more the product of some lingering injuries rather than a complete inability to coexist with Okafor on the court. Remember, none of us should have been drafting Noel for his ability to score or knock down mid-range j’s. And since missing two games with an eye injury back in December, Noel — with and without Okafor — has posted 11.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.7 spg and 2.2 bpg on 65.1 percent from the field in 20 games. As far as I’m concerned, the Okafor-slowing-down-Noel narrative — while maybe a factor in terms of scoring average — can mostly be tossed aside in fantasy leagues.
Other Random Thoughts: Thaddeus Young before Jarrett Jack’s season-ending injury: 15.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg in 33 games. Thaddeus Young since Jack’s season-ending injury: 13.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg in 13 games. … Zach LaVine’s recent game log (in terms of points) is enough to drive anyone completely mad: 0, 21, 2, 13, 11, 4, 4, 5, 21, 35. Try to avoid getting caught up in the game-to-game inconsistency, and remember the big picture: LaVine has a very good chance to be getting consistently big minutes in March and April. Stay patient and I expect it to pay off.
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