Around the League: Overvalued Players: AL West
We recently finished hitting the fantasy risers for each division, players whose arrows are pointed up heading into 2016. Now we turn our attention to those players who may provide more sizzle than steak for fantasy owners in the upcoming season. The NL East and NL Central have already been covered, so we’ll now stop over to the American League West.
We’re getting closer to pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, so be sure to keep refreshing Rotoworld’s constantly-updating player news page for all the latest. And while you’re at it, follow @Rotoworld_BB and @djshort if you are on Twitter.
Steve Cishek RP, Mariners
In case you haven’t noticed, Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto has been pretty busy this winter. As part of his roster revamp, he acquired Cishek and Joaquin Benoit for the back-end of his bullpen. While many speculated that Benoit would get the first crack at closing games in 2016, the club signed Cishek to a two-year, $10 million contract with the intention of using him in the role. Closers need to be owned in fantasy leagues, so I’m not telling you to avoid Cishek completely, but expect a bumpy ride with this situation.
Showing diminished velocity, Cishek was booted from the Marlins’ closer role early last season and was even demoted to Triple-A for a stretch before eventually being traded to the Cardinals in July. He saw better results with St. Louis, putting up a 2.31 ERA over 27 appearances. However, it obscured from an underwhelming 20/13 K/BB ratio over 23 1/3 innings. There will be some reason for optimism if Cishek is throwing harder out of the gate early on in 2016, but Benoit is the superior pitcher and it’s very possible he’ll run away with the job at some point. Be sure to pick him up as a handcuff.
Kole Calhoun OF, Angels
It was only a couple of years ago that I was making the argument that Calhoun was undervalued. Now I’m going the opposite direction. Why the flip-flop here? It feels a bit odd on the surface, as the 28-year-old established new career-highs with 26 home runs and 83 RBI last season. Those are nice numbers, but it’s also somewhat deceptive as he logged 149 more plate appearances than 2014. But there’s more to this.
Even with the added power last season, Calhoun wasn’t as productive as he was in 2014. He struck out four percent more often and drew fewer walks while posting an underwhelming .256/.308/.422 batting line. He doesn’t provide much speed, so you are mostly counting on him maintaining the power spike to deliver value. That’s a tricky proposition. There are simply more dynamic options available among fantasy outfielders.
Hisashi Iwakuma SP, Mariners
Iwakuma was absent for most of the first half of last season due to a strained lat muscle, but he was plenty effective when healthy, posting a 3.54 ERA and 111/21 K/BB ratio over 129 2/3 innings. He even tossed a no-hitter along the way. The Dodgers turned to Iwakuma after missing out on Zack Greinke over the winter, but they ultimately backed away from a reported three-year, $45 million contact due to unspecified health concerns raised during his physical. He eventually returned to the Mariners on a one-year, $12 million contract which includes vesting options for 2017 and 2018.
I’m not ruling out the possibility that Iwakuma is going to be just fine in his age-35 season. While his strikeout rate has never been dominant, his control is elite. Dating back to the start of 2013, only five pitchers (min. 300 IP) have bested Iwakuma’s 1.04 WHIP. He’s a proven commodity, but age and health questions should have an impact on his price tag. There’s obviously a point where grabbing him is worth the gamble, but pitching is incredibly deep and there are plenty of appealing alternatives with more upside if you are looking to maximize your innings. As a result, I likely won’t consider him among my top-40 starters on draft boards this spring.
Albert Pujols 1B, Angels
Pujols was one of just nine players in MLB to reach 40 home runs last season. The power resurgence was a nice surprise for fantasy owners, but he finished with career-lows in both batting average and on-base percentage. Clearly some of this was about health. The second half was a real struggle for him, as he hit just .231 with a .288 on-base percentage while dealing with plantar fasciitis. It was uncomfortable to watch at times.
Pujols had surgery after the season to repair the plantar plate in his right foot and figures to get a late start on the 2016 season. This makes him a risk before you even get to his age (he turned 36 earlier this month). Pujols still makes a lot of contact, so a bounceback in batting average appears within reach, but it’s fair to wonder by how much. Even though he’s right-handed, defensive shifts are hurting him. And his walk rate is a far cry from what we saw during his peak. I’m certainly not expecting a similar power pace, so be careful to not let the name and past production elevate him on your draft board. Comparable numbers could be found with others.
Collin McHugh SP, Astros
Fantasy owners are generally ahead of the curve on things, so I’d hope we’re past the point where a pitcher’s win-loss record from a previous season carries much relevance as far as predictive value. Yet after winning 19 games in 2015, I’m confident McHugh is going to be overvalued on draft boards this spring.
The win-loss record ultimately distracts from the fact that McHugh took a step back across the board last season. In addition to seeing his ERA jump from 2.73 to 3.89, he averaged just 7.6 K/9 compared to 9.1 K/9 from 2014. I don’t want to be completely negative on him here, as his swinging strike rate remained solid and he saw an increase in his ground ball rate. Meanwhile, the average exit velocity against him was among the lowest in the majors. He should remain a useful pitcher in mixed leagues. But you can’t count on the wins and he’s not going to stand out as much among other starters unless he sees an increase in his strikeout rate.
Shawn Tolleson RP, Rangers
Tolleson was a difference-maker for many fantasy owners after taking over the closer role from Neftali Feliz last season, finishing with a 2.99 ERA and 76/17 K/BB ratio over 72 1/3 innings while going 35-for-37 in save opportunities. However, it was somewhat interesting how Rangers manager Jeff Banister used his bullpen during the postseason, opting for Sam Dyson over Tolleson during some crucial moments. Tolleson is expected to go into 2016 as the closer, but this situation carries plenty of question marks.
While Tolleson doesn’t have lights-out stuff you typically find in a late-inning arm, there’s reason to believe he can remain an effective reliever. The biggest thing working against him is that the Rangers have options. Keone Kela was considered a threat for the closer job before Tolleson took over last season and Dyson posted a dominant 1.15 ERA and 30/4 K/BB ratio over 31 1/3 innings after coming over from the Marlins last year. If Tolleson hits a rough patch, a change could easily be made. Be careful banking on a repeat.
Yunel Escobar 3B, Angels
While the Nationals underachieved on the whole last season, Escobar turned out to be a pleasant surprise while batting .314/.375/.414 over 139 games. His batting average was his highest since his rookie season in 2007 while his on-base percentage and slugging percentage were his best since 2009. It was a nice year, enough for the Angels to acquire him in a trade over the winter, but there’s just not a lot to get excited about in fantasy leagues.
Escobar hasn’t reached double-digits in home runs since 2011 and has never stolen more than six bases in a season. He has always been difficult to strike out, but his .347 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) last season was 41 points higher than his career average. Sure, he sprayed plenty of line drives, so you could say he earned it to an extent, but it’s asking a lot for that to continue. Add in that he’s now only third base-eligible and his upside is very limited in mixed formats.
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