BDL’s Most Interesting Power Rankings: The Land of opportunity
Let’s face it — the best and most powerful teams in the NBA don’t really change from week to week. A handful of results in the middle of winter can only mean so much to a franchise’s championship hopes. What does shift regularly, though, is how much interest a squad can hold over the course of a season. Every Monday, BDL’s Most Interesting Power Rankings track the teams most worthy of your attention.
THE TOP 15
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (30-12; last week: 2): On one hand, it seems insane to fire head coach David Blatt after a season and a half of leading the East’s top team, and before an all-but-ordained return to the Finals to find out how a (hopefully) healthy Cavs roster would fare against a Western wonder.
On the other, it seems reasonable to fire Blatt after losses to the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors offered, if not cause for panic, then evidence of what many had suspected: that this iteration of the Cavs, though capable of pummeling the East, can’t trade haymakers with left-coast heavyweights.
Detroit Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy — one of several respected sideline stalkers to decry Cleveland’s decision — described Blatt’s ouster as one that “elevated all of the coach firings into the theater of the absurd,” citing all the wins under Blatt’s belt as proof that the world’s gone mad.
“It’s hard to figure out what it’s all about anymore, now,” he said. “I don’t know if anybody even knows what the expectations of coaches are anymore.” And yet, that’s not really true. We all know the expectations for this coach, this star, this team; LeBron James lays it out in that Chuck D-lipsyncing Samsung ad.
If the Cavaliers’ players and general manager David Griffin stopped believing that Blatt could “get one for The Land” — the only metric that matters here — then they had to make the move, right? The rest of this season was already all about maximizing the talents of a nine-figure roster and solving the on-court problems that have Cleveland looking eminently vulnerable. If the powers that be weren’t convinced Blatt could do those things, why not let someone else experiment in that second-half laboratory?
Maybe Blatt never really had a chance once LeBron decided to come home. Maybe he never could connect with his stars; if nothing else, we know Tyronn Lue already has James’ ear.
(Or vice versa.)
Lue also has his work cut out for him. After promising to do things better than Blatt and to hold his stars accountable, Lue watched his Cavs score 83 points in another nationally televised home loss. He then proclaimed his players out of shape and incapable of maintaining his preferred pace.
Lue has a tremendous opportunity here. If he can command the respect that the Cavs seemed reluctant to give Blatt, Cleveland could find a new gear and transform into a legitimate title threat. But if this rookie head coach can’t succeed where the last “rookie” failed, we could be seeing the first signs of an early sunset on what many expected to be Cavaliers’ brightest days.
2. Golden State Warriors (40-4; LW: 3): Blatt’s unceremonious exit stole the headlines from Friday’s other big coaching story: the return of Steve Kerr. In his first game back, Kerr earned his 40th win of the season — sorry, Luke Walton — thanks largely to Stephen Curry, who celebrated with a 39-point triple-double. Pretty decent “welcome back” gift, Steph.
It’s hard to imagine Kerr’s arrival heralding a level of performance much higher than the one the Dubs have managed in his absence. It’s not easy to improve on the league’s No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense, and outscoring your opposition by nearly 14 points per 100 possessions. Still, Kerr’s reintegration and the Warriors’ reacclimation to his nightly presence bear watching, especially considering his second game back comes against …
3. San Antonio Spurs (38-6; LW: 1): … a team that hasn’t lost since Christmas, that continues to boast one of the stingiest defenses since the introduction of the 3-point shot, and that has outscored its opposition by 19.1 points per 100 possessions during its 13-game winning streak.
Kawhi Leonard’s ascent has continued unchecked, earning a well-deserved spot in the starting lineup for the 2016 Western Conference All-Star team. Danny Green still isn’t where Gregg Popovich hopes he’ll be come playoff time, but he’s shooting nearly 40 percent from 3 during the streak, and San Antonio’s league-best second-unit — led by Manu Ginobili, Boris Diaw and Patty Mills — continues to style on fools like:
We had to wait 44 games, but on Monday, our wait ends: we’ll finally get to see the Spurs and Warriors square off. With Golden State just one win off the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ pace for the best record in NBA history and San Antonio only two games behind while blowing away the NBA record for margin of victory, “game of the season” seems like an understatement.
Except …
4. Sacramento Kings (20-23; LW: 4): With apologies to Mae West, when the Kings are bad, they’re good, but when they’re good, they’re even better.
The NBA’s most delightfully bonkers bunch has won five straight and eight of 11 since a loss to the Philadelphia 76ers had George Karl questioning their guts. DeMarcus Cousins is averaging 32.5 points, 13.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.7 steals in 36.2 minutes per game this month. He just hung a career-high 48 on the Indiana Pacers in a game you’d imagine made Larry Bird briefly question that “stop playing big” thing:
With Cousins mauling defenders and Rajon Rondo setting the table, Sacramento has turned in the league’s seventh-most-potent offense in January while hanging around the middle of the pack in points allowed per possession.
That defensive improvement has been aided by Willie Cauley-Stein’s return from injury. The rookie big man is averaging two combined blocks and steals in just 19.5 minutes per game since coming back, and he can make a major difference on both ends:
Sacramento has allowed just 99.2 points per 100 possessions with WCS on the floor since his return. The Kings have been 9.1 points-per-100 better when he’s playing than when he’s sitting, and are 12-7 when he starts. The versatile 7-footer stabilizes a shaky defense and adds even more volatile variance to an unpredictable team that now sits a game up on the Utah Jazz in the race for the West’s eighth playoff spot.
5. Toronto Raptors (29-15; LW: 10): The Raps have won eight straight and 12 of 15, roasting their opposition to the tune of 109.1 points per 100 possessions, the NBA’s No. 5 offensive efficiency mark in that span, behind only the Spurs, Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers, whom Toronto smacked around on Sunday.
Kyle Lowry (20.2 points, 7.4 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 2.1 steals per game over the last month) will start in the Eastern backcourt at next month’s All-Star Game. DeMar DeRozan won’t, but after this scorching stretch he’s putting up (24.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists over the last 15 games) it would be a shock if he didn’t join his comedy partner.
Quality wins over the Clippers, Boston Celtics and Miami Heat won’t erase rough losses to the Cavs and Chicago Bulls; as Raptors Republic wrote Sunday, Toronto will “have to start winning tough games in telling fashion” to convert doubters. Right now, though, Lowry and DeRozan form as potent a one-two punch as exists in the East, backed by a deep bench that gives the Raptors hope of challenging for the No. 1 spot.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder (33-13; LW: 9): The Thunder would have ridden a 10-game winning streak into Sunday if Damian Lillard hadn’t briefly gone nuclear two weeks ago. Their top two players make up 40 percent of the Western All-Stars’ starting five and (roughly) one-third of the top six candidates for this year’s MVP trophy. No lineup to play more than 200 minutes together has been more dominant than Oklahoma City’s starters; Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Steven Adams and Andre Roberson have outscored opponents by 21.5 points per 100 possessions over more than 500 minutes.
The Thunder are really good and really fun — I really think that, Kevin! Honest! — and suffer only when compared to the two historically dominant teams in front of them, and even then, only slightly. OKC will soon have its chance to turn that suffering around; six of the Thunder’s seven meetings with Golden State and San Antonio are yet to come, beginning with a Feb. 6 visit to Oracle.
7. New Orleans Pelicans (16-27; LW: not ranked): As I wrote after Eric Gordon fractured his right ring finger, if the Pelicans hope to climb out of the massive hole they dug themselves earlier this season, this seven-game homestand — which starts a stretch of 15 home games in 22 contests, with 12 coming against teams with sub-.500 road records — has to be the time. So far, so good.
The Pelicans have won three straight in convincing fashion, holding the Minnesota Timberwolves, Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks to 99 points each in double-digit victories. New Orleans has now won five of six, dropping only a two-point road decision to the Memphis Grizzlies last Monday.
Alvin Gentry’s club has the West’s sixth-best point differential in January, behind only San Antonio, Golden State, the Clips, OKC and the Kings; the porous Pelicans defense has tightened, allowing 102.3 points per 100 possessions over the last 11 games, eighth-best in the NBA since Jan. 1. Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday are trending upward while Ryan Anderson bombs away, giving Anthony Davis the support he lacked earlier this season, and the Pelicans are now just four games out of the eighth seed.
The $64,000 question: if the Pelicans keep making up ground on Sacramento, will general manager Dell Demps stay the course and ride it out? Or is this recent uptick too late to prevent Pelicans brass from shaking things up before the trade deadline?
8. Los Angeles Clippers (28-16; LW: 8): After winning nine straight without Blake Griffin, the Clips came back to Earth a bit this week. They fell to the Kings without DeAndre Jordan, narrowly avoided unwelcome late-game déjà vu against the Houston Rockets, gave Blatt a going-away present in Cleveland, nuked the New York Knicks and got tenderized in Toronto.
The scouting report on the Clips seems to be holding steady. They can score like gangbusters, but struggle to stop teams who can do likewise. They need Jordan on the floor to captain the defense and threaten opponents with rim runs/rolls, but have a hard time keeping him in when opponents start hacking. Their starters can run with anybody, but coach Doc Rivers has problems when he looks down the bench GM Doc Rivers built.
The Raptors outscored the Clips’ all-bench unit of Austin Rivers, Pablo Prigioni, Wesley Johnson, Jamal Crawford and Cole Aldrich by 23 points in just eight minutes on Sunday, headlined by a 17-1 second-quarter-opening run by four reserves and All-Star Lowry. Another spurt to start the fourth quarter — again by a Lowry-led reserve group, again over L.A.’s all-backup lineup — pushed the lead to 18 with 8:48 left, just about ending the game. (This is where we suggest Doc seriously consider not playing five of his worst players together, a long-running issue.)
Griffin should return soon, and barring a drastic shift, the Clips look to have settled into a tier of their own below Golden State, San Antonio and Oklahoma City, and above the rest of the pack. That should be enough to open the playoffs at home. Whether it’s enough for anything else remains unclear.
9. Houston Rockets (24-22; LW: NR): The bad news: it sometimes looks like the Rockets can only score if James Harden does damn near everything. The good news: he can sometimes do damn near everything.
Harden scored 23 points, created 24 more with his 10 assists — including dimes on four of Trevor Ariza’s season-high six 3s — and added three “hockey” assists while pulling down a game-high 15 rebounds on Sunday. His second triple double in the last three games led the Rockets to a 115-104 win over the Dallas Mavericks, Houston’s eighth win in 11 games, to draw within 1 1/2 games of the No. 5 seed out West.
And hey, Josh Smith’s back!
In his second game with Houston after the Clips shipped him back Friday, Smoove had a season-high 16 points, three rebounds, two assists and two blocks in 23 minutes, plus one tremendous show-and-go fakeout and that giant dunk. He played small-ball center in some devastating lineups that cut down a Dallas lead in the third quarter and took it over in the fourth, sparking the kind of emotion so frequently seen during Houston’s Western Conference finals run and in such short supply this year:
With Harden cooking, Ariza’s shot waking up and Smith back in the fold, maybe now the Rockets have a shot at being the good kind of weird again.
10. Denver Nuggets (17-27; LW: NR): I’d be lying if I said I consider Denver’s games must-see TV, but the Nuggets have been pretty competitive for the past three weeks, and Michael Malone might have found a foursome worth banking on since getting Danilo Gallinari and Emmanuel Mudiay back from ankle ailments.
Over the past seven games, Denver lineups featuring that pair alongside sophomore shooting guard Gary Harris and impressive rookie big man Nikola Jokic have outscored opponents by 29 points in 105 minutes. The outside shooting of Gallinari and Harris opens up driving lanes and opportunities on the interior. The penetration of Gallinari and Mudiay can collapse defenses, generating better looks on the perimeter. And having more capable passers on the floor, including the 6-foot-10 Jokic:
… can help make something out of nothing. (That group has performed better with floor-spacing, defensively savvy vet Darrell Arthur alongside Jokic up front than when Kenneth Faried joins the party.)
The Nuggets have lots to figure out. Are there any takers for de-emphasized vets Randy Foye and J.J. Hickson? Can Jusuf Nurkic (shooting 35.3 percent from the floor since returning, dealing with persistent soreness in his surgically repaired left knee) work his way back to top form? With Gallinari rolling — 24.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists in 34.8 minutes per game over his last 10 outings, getting to the foul line at a Hardenian rate — should the Nuggets strike now and look to ship him out now for potentially juicy rebuilding assets? Or would general manager Tim Connelly prefer to try to rebuild with Gallo?
Whatever those answers wind up being, the Nuggets right now are full of interesting young guys figuring things out, and they scrap. That can make them a pretty compelling watch.
11. Miami Heat (23-21; LW: NR): Miami’s the wrong kind of interesting right now, having lost four straight and eight of 10 to fall to within 1 1/2 games of dropping out of the East’s top eight. (An optimist would note that they’re also just a half-game out of fifth in the tightly packed conference.)
Some of the Heat’s struggles can be traced to a rash of injuries that put starters Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside and Luol Deng on the shelf alongside reserves Beno Udrih, Chris “Birdman” Andersen and Josh McRoberts. With so few bodies available, Dwyane Wade has had to try to carry a larger-than-advisable offensive load on two aching shoulders, and Erik Spoelstra has had to ask an awful lot of young wings Justise Winslow, Tyler Johnson and Josh Richardson.
There’s some optimism that the Heat will start getting players back this week, but with six of the next seven on the road and home dates against the Atlanta Hawks, Clippers and Spurs coming, things could get worse before they get better. If they do, Pat Riley’s response ought to be interesting; Miami’s team president doesn’t tend to take losing lying down, but he also doesn’t have a whole lot left if he wants to deal. Could necessity be the mother of another big, bold attempt at midseason reinvention?
12. Chicago Bulls (25-18; LW: 5): I think Kelly Dwyer summed up the Bulls well on Saturday:
Chicago can’t be trusted to show up on its home court against teams from Minnesota or Phoenix, and it did lose against the Warriors by 31 on Wednesday, but usually if you give this team a national TV setting and championship-worthy opponent, the Bulls tend to show up.
That consistent inconsistency (or, if you’d prefer, the reverse) combined with the All-World play of Jimmy Butler and the typically stellar offensive work of Pau Gasol produces a squad that can look average for weeks at a time yet still hold onto a top-three seed. Is “maddening” a synonym for “interesting” yet?
13. Boston Celtics (24-21; LW: 14): Most of what I wrote about the Celtics three weeks ago still applies — I grant that they’re pretty good, but don’t find their collective style moving. That said, let us now praise Jae Crowder, who has gone from Rick Carlisle’s doghouse to Brad Stevens’ penthouse by always doing something, and who continues to establish himself as the sort of dude I’d want on my favorite team.
There’s No. 99 on Sunday, helping Jared Sullinger strip 76ers point guard Ish Smith to start a fast break:
… and there he is picking off a lazy pass before finishing through contact:
… and there he is cutting back door to scoop a perfect Isaiah Thomas bounce pass for a deuce in a comfortable win:
The 25-year-old Marquette product has built a career on this combination of hustle, instinct and intellect. First, he earned his way into Stevens’ rotation after coming over from Dallas in the Rajon Rondo trade. Then, he earned a five-year, $35 million contract extension. Now, he’s earning starter’s minutes and recognition as one of the game’s more effective two-way wings.
Crowder’s putting up career statistical highs virtually across the board, ranks fifth among small forwards in ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus (behind only LeBron, Kawhi, KD and Paul George) and is one of only 10 players averaging at least 14 points, five rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game. The rest of the list? Curry, Kawhi, Westbrook, Lowry, George, Butler, Harden, Paul Millsap and Thaddeus Young — MVP candidates, All-Stars and near-All-Stars. Decent company for a guy who struggled to get 10 minutes a game last year.
14. Minnesota Timberwolves (14-31; LW: 12): If you’re primarily interested in teams likely to contend for the 2016 championship, you probably don’t check in on the Wolves much; they’re tied for the fourth-worst record in the league and are mostly just playing for ping-pong balls. But this young lottery-bound team employs Karl-Anthony Towns, and he’s worth watching right flippin’ now:
Towns, who turned 20 two months ago, just went toe-to-toe with Marc Gasol and won. The only rookies who have ever put up stat lines like Towns are Hall of Famers and Elton Brand, who was awesome before he tore his Achilles. Towns can become something truly special, but what he already is ain’t too shabby, either.
15. Dallas Mavericks (25-21; LW: 6): I’ll be honest: I feel warmer toward the Mavs now that A) Eric Freeman has described them as “the basketball version of robot soccer” and B) Carlisle is taking a look (however briefly and injury-prompted) at 29-year-old rookie Salah Mejri, the 7-foot-2 center who starred for Tunisia in the 2012 Summer Olympics and who put up 10 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks in his first NBA start.
Mostly, though, I’m interested in where Dallas can go now that Chandler Parsons — who has come along slowly after “minor hybrid” microfracture surgery on his right knee this summer — looks like himself:
After scoring a season-high 31 points in Sunday’s loss to the Rockets, Parsons is averaging 19.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.4 assists in 35.3 minutes per game over the past two weeks, shooting just under 60 percent from the floor and 62 percent from 3. A Dallas club that has dropped six of 10 and fallen to the middle of the pack in offensive efficiency sorely needs the playmaking and shot creation that a healthy Parsons brings.
What makes this most interesting, though, is what Jonathan Tjarks notes: Parsons has looked most comfortable and effective as a small-ball power forward rather than at the three. That could make for some rotational awkwardness as Carlisle tries to find the right mix to maximize the offensive effectiveness of Parsons and Dirk Nowitzki without giving away the store on defense. There aren’t many coaches in the league you’d trust more than Carlisle to find the best fit, though, and whatever comes next, it’s been cool to see Parsons look like the fire of old after a long, arduous rehab.
THE BOTTOM FIVE
26. Indiana Pacers (23-21; LW: 15): The only team Frank Vogel’s squad has beaten in the past two weeks is the rancid Phoenix Suns. The offense has stagnated, and the defense has lacked its early-season snarl. Indy might just be feeling the blues of a road-heavy run — nine out of the Pacers’ last 11 games have come away from Bankers Life Fieldhouse — but with the notable exceptions of All-Star Paul George and exciting rookie center Myles Turner (20.5 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game over the last four contests), Pacers games have felt like a slog, for them and us alike.
27. Phoenix Suns (14-31; LW: 29): The Suns are 2-15 over the past five weeks, and went from “we can make a run at the eighth seed!” to “life is pain, all is death, existence will become nothingness” faster than an auctioneer can say, “Maybe we shouldn’t have tinkered two summers ago.”
And yet, a team that should be No. 30 with a bullet keeps me intrigued thanks to 19-year-old rookie Devin Booker, who’s averaging 16 points per game since Christmas and who scored a career-high 32 with six 3s in last week’s loss to Indiana. The smooth, confident shooter already looks like the kind of foundational piece Phoenix will need to anchor the next round of rebuilding.
28. Los Angeles Lakers (9-37; LW: 27): That three-game winning streak scarcely seems like it happened, huh? Ten losses in 11 games can erase goodwill fast, and apparently, it can also turn Super Chill/Blissed Out/Three Months Away From Retirement With No Worries Kobe Bryant back into The Old Him. From Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News:
With the Lakers offering little to stop Portland’s Damian Lillard (36 points) and CJ McCollum (28 points), Bryant provided pointed comments to his teammates about their play in the locker room afterwards, according to multiple sources familiar with the situation.
Bryant, who posted 10 points on 5-of-9 shooting and five turnovers in 25 minutes through three quarters, became upset both with the Lakers (9-37) for losing their sixth consecutive game and for some on the team smiling after the loss, sources said. Bryant took particular aim at Lakers rookie point guard D’Angelo Russell and second-year forward Julius Randle and even called them out by name, sources said.
“You know I don’t do the gossip [expletive],” Bryant said in a friendly exchange when asked about the incident.
If nobody’s allowed to smile after the Lakers get destroyed again in the midst of a going-nowhere season that everybody involved has openly agreed is not about winning or developing young players, then Kobe probably has some explaining to do after months of basking in the glow of enemy farewells while chucking toward L after L, right? Or, better yet, let’s just lighten up and get back to the part where the kids just keep playing and learning from their mistakes. That’s much more interesting than Tough Love.
29. Brooklyn Nets (12-33; LW: 30): I can’t in good conscience put the Nets in last place again after a wire-to-wire win over Oklahoma City. Yes, injuries and organizational terror have Brooklyn fielding arguably the league’s most nondescript roster, but dammit, Brook Lopez put up 31 and 10 on a title contender. That’s worth a Not Last Place in my book. Ding!
30. Philadelphia 76ers (6-39; LW: 28): After a double-overtime loss to the Knicks and a win over the Orlando Magic, I wrote a little joke:
The Sixers — perhaps shaken by discussion of whether they’re now “becoming too good to hold the No. 1 lottery odds” — responded with a 20-point loss to the Celtics. “We’ll teach you to call us ‘garden-variety bad,’ Devine!”
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Dan Devine is an editor for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
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