The 13-4 New England Patriots head into Mile High this weekend to take on the 13-4 Denver Bronco’s in this AFC Championship Game on the grass of Sports Authority Field, Jan 24, 2016. Kick off is scheduled for 3:05PM ET.
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Patriots -3
Total Line: 44.5
New England led all the way in a 27-20 victory over Kansas City on Saturday. QB Tom Brady was 28-42 for 302 yards and 2 TDs. He wasn’t sacked in the game. WR Justin Edelman caught 10 passes for 100 yards while TE Rob Gronkowski hauled in 7 for 83 yards and 2 TDs. The running game continued to sputter, gaining 38 yards on 14 carries. The defense had a sack and recovered a game-changing fumble. They had trouble with the run, allowing 135 yards on 32 carries.
Denver forced a huge fumble in the 4th quarter en route to a 23-16 victory over Pittsburgh on Sunday. QB Peyton Manning was 21-37 for 222 yards but was the victim of several drops, especially in the first half. The running game produced 109 yards on 33 carries and the only TD. PK Brandon McManus kicked 5 FGs. The defense had 3 sacks and CB Bradley Roby forced the fumble that ended a Steelers scoring drive and led to the go-ahead TD for the Broncos.
Patriots at Broncos Betting Trends
New England is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 matchups with Denver.
The Patriots have recorded 6 overs and 3 unders in their last 9 road games.
Denver is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.
The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 encounters with AFC East opponents.
Consensus Pick (ATS)
New England: 75%
Denver: 25%
Free NFL Pick
The Patriots offense performance was much improved last week against the Chiefs with the return of WR Julien Edelman who managed 100 yards on 10 catches. Brady used short passes to Edelman (16 targets), RB James White (3 targets), WR Danny Amendola (3 targets), RB Steven Jackson (1 target) and RB Brandon Bolden (1 target) to help alleviate the pressure. He is likely to find the coverage much tighter this week against a very athletic group of LB’s and the Pats’ run game has been dismal and it would certainly be a reach to think that they’ll be able to turn it around against this unit that finished No. 1 in yards per carry and No. 3 in rushing yards allowed pert game. The Broncos will also have their problems on the offensive side of the ball with the immobile Manning behind center and will have to run the ball to alleviate the New England pass rush that finished second in the league in sacks with 49 three less than the Broncos. Denver did rush for 179 yards on 32 carries in their earlier match this season, but it must be noted that arguably the Pats’ best LB Jamie Collins did not play. Look for both teams to eat a lot of clock on dinks and dunks as the defenses shine for both clubs.
Take the UNDER 44.5
AFC Championship game pick against the betting line and analysis provided by Rich Crew. You can get more of his free picks by visiting Sports Betting Stats
