Greg Cosell’s AFC championship preview: Broncos need to be sharper
For each of the conference championship games this weekend, we’ll take a look at what the film tells us about the key matchups on each side of the ball.
Here are a few things to look for in the AFC championship game between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos:
Broncos offense vs. Patriots defense
Peyton Manning has been a focal point, but there wasn’t much new from his performance against the Steelers that we hadn’t seen already this season.
Manning prefers to line up in the shotgun, and did most of the game, even though Gary Kubiak’s offense has never used the shotgun much before. Manning was not quite as consistently precise with his ball placement as he used to be, and there were many examples in the Steelers game of that.
One example came on the first play of the second quarter. Manning, who can read a defense as well as anyone, called a great audible. He got Demaryius Thomas open on the deep post against Steelers cornerback Ross Cockrell. But he overthrew the pass. It would have been a touchdown.
Manning also missed Emmanuel Sanders from the inside slot on a shallow crossing pattern. It’s a throw Manning had to put right on Sanders to give him a chance at gaining yards after the catch.
The Broncos passing game had no continuity in the first half between some inaccurate throws by Manning and drops by his receivers. The Broncos need to clean that up.
Broncos offense must be balanced to be effective: Against the Steelers, C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman combined for 31 carries and 110 yards, which is 3.54 yards per rush. That won’t likely be good enough against New England. Manning at this point must be a piece of an offense, not the driving force. He was efficient versus the Steelers but he needs to be more consistent.
And it’s a good bet that Bill Belichick and the Patriots will force the issue and challenge the Broncos to beat them vertically in the passing game. That’s what anybody would do right now.
Patriots offense vs. Broncos defense
Last week, the Patriots’ game plan relied on a quick passing game out of shotgun spread formations, with many snaps out of empty sets. The run game was not part of the game plan.
The game plan negated the Patriots’ offensive line; they weren’t a negative factor in the game because of the heavy emphasis on quick passes. That camouflaged and compensated for any potential pass protection issues. And this approach totally negated the Chiefs’ blitz. It forced the Chiefs to win in coverage and they didn’t. Keep this in mind for when the Broncos blitz. Although, in the first meeting between these teams the Broncos played a conservative game; you did not see as much blitzing, stunting or man coverage. It will be interesting to see how they approach the rematch.
Here’s an example of Tom Brady beating the blitz, although it wasn’t out of an empty set. On their opening possession the Patriots anticipated a Chiefs blitz with Brady in the shotgun, and the Chiefs played man coverage behind it. They doubled Gronkowski, with slot corner Ron Parker playing outside leverage and Berry doubling Gronkowski. Gronkowski ran a sit route at the sticks on third-and-13, Parker got inside of Gronkowski, giving Brady an area to deliver the ball. Brady, off of outstanding pocket movement, threw Gronkowski open away from the defense.
The Broncos will bring pressure, and the Patriots did a good job last week beating the Chiefs’ pressure. It’s possible the Patriots have a similar approach this week, with a lot of empty sets and shotgun to negate any Broncos blitzes. That’s also possible because their running game hasn’t been very good for a few weeks. But, Bill Belichick rarely does the same thing two weeks in a row, so it will be interesting to see how the Patriots’ offense attacks the Broncos early on.
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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.
