Roundball Stew: Stew: Myles Turner Overdrive
As I’ve said a number of times in this column in recent years, a two- or three- or even five-game trend doesn’t always mean much of anything.
To cite one recent example: Marco Belinelli (an expert in matters such as these) had a four-game stretch from late December to early January during which he averaged 20.5 ppg, 1.5 spg and 2.8 3s. In the seven games since, he has posted 7.7 ppg, 0.4 spg and 1.0 3s on 30.0 percent from the field.
Of course, a two-game trend can, in many cases, be the start of something magical. And with constantly plugged-in fantasy owners hounding box scores as vigilantly as they ever have, you usually need to act preemptively if you’re going to succeed on the waiver wire at all.
With all that in mind, here are some recent trends that have only lasted a handful of games so far, but have big potential to pay off in the long run:
Myles Turner, C, IND
Numbers: 20.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.0 bpg in his last two games (30 minutes per game)
Analysis: After re-watching all of Turner’s action from his last two games against the Nuggets and Suns – admittedly not scary matchups – I can concur with Frank Vogel’s assessment that the rookie is indeed “a beast”. Still just 19 years old, Turner has a buttery mid-range jumper and is very aggressive as a shot-blocker. It certainly has helped his cause that starting center Ian Mahinmi (ankle) has played a combined total of 11 minutes the last two games, and it remains unclear exactly what Turner’s minutes will look like once Mahinmi is back. So even though there are no guarantees here — or anywhere else in this column, for that matter — Turner has monster upside for the second half of the season if things break right.
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Willie Cauley-Stein, C, SAC
Numbers: 12.0 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 2.0 spg, 1.0 bpg in his last two games (30 minutes per game)
Analysis: He was the headlined player in an early edition of the Stew this season after posting 11.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.7 spg and 1.7 bpg in Games 2-4 of his NBA career. But from there it hasn’t gone all that smoothly for the No. 6 overall pick, who missed most of December with a dislocated finger. But he’s now back in action, and back in the starting lineup, having posted two consecutive double-doubles against… wait for it… the not-so-intimidating frontcourts of the Lakers and Hawks. At this point though, we shouldn’t be worrying about the matchups. Cauley-Stein, like Turner, has significant potential (particularly as a rebounder/defensive stats guy) if he continues to get this kind of playing time. Act now and determine if it was a good idea later.
And here are a couple recent runs I’m less excited about…
Kelly Olynyk, C, BOS
Numbers: 16.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.3 spg, 1.0 bpg, 3.3 3s in his last four games (26 minutes per game)
Analysis: If you only look at Olynyk’s two-, three- or and four-game binges, you see a bona fide fantasy dynamo. Consider:
12/7-12/11 (3 games): 21.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.0 spg, 1.3 bpg, 2.3 3s (53.3 percent from the field)
12/21-12/23 (2 games): 19.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.0 spg, 0.5 bpg, 2.0 3s (70.0 percent from the field)
Plus the most recent run of four games listed above. The problem, of course, is that there are all too many evenings when Olynyk’s numbers are complete garbage. If you’re in a deep league it’s a lot easier to just leave him in the lineup and enjoy the overall serviceable averages (10.1 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 0.9 spg, 0.7 bpg, 1.4 3s). For the rest of us though, chances are you get him into your lineup right after (rather than just before) a hot streak. So as tempting as some of these numbers may look, I’ve decided for now that the whole experience is just too infuriating to endure.
Aaron Gordon, SF/PF, ORL
Numbers: 12.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 0.0 spg, 0.5 bpg, 0.5 3s in his last two games (30 minutes per game)
Analysis: In theory, I get why people are excited about Gordon, whose athleticism is as exciting as Olynyk’s inconsistency is annoying. My question is this: As dynamic as Gordon is in real life, is he that exciting as a fantasy option right now? I asked Bruce the Intern to crunch some numbers, and he came up with this…
Aaron Gordon, when when getting 25-plus minutes per game (14 times so far this season):
9.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 0.8 spg, 0.9 bpg, 0.5 3s
There certainly are some intriguing performances in Gordon’s game log, but the numbers above aren’t exactly staggering. If you’ve added him, I would wait a bit to see what his minutes and stats look like in the coming weeks. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that Gordon — who has one double-digit rebounding game all season, and just three games of 15 or more points — may currently be a lower-end fantasy asset than his athleticism would imply.
Other Random Thoughts: While we’re on the 25-plus minutes thing, Frank Kaminsky when getting 25 or more minutes per game this season (18 games): 12.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 0.7 spg, 0.7 bpg and 1.2 3s. He’s also averaging 15.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg and 1.8 3s (0.3 spg, 0.5 bpg) in his last four. With Cody Zeller now injured in addition to Al Jefferson, Kaminsky is suddenly intriguing (even if a little bit boring). … Paul Millsap is averaging 1.9 spg and 2.6 bpg in his last seven, and 2.2 spg and 2.0 bpg in his last 12. … I’m not in any hurry to add Jerami Grant right now, but his line on Wednesday (12 points, six boards, two steals, five blocks and a trey) was the latest reminder that the 21-year-old has somewhat silly long-term upside.
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