Draft Strategy: 2016 Category Sleepers: Saves

It’s never too early to prepare for your draft, and some of us draft fiends are already setting our draft dates. We’re still early in the offseason, but it’s a great time to start discussing some players to watch as we look toward 2016.

For the second year in a row, I’ll be breaking down category sleepers at each of the 5×5 roto categories. We’ve already covered WHIP, home runs  strikeouts, batting average, ERA, and stolen bases, and this week we’ll be reviewing pitchers who can help with saves. Over 10 weeks, I will be providing a list of sleepers per each category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). 

Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a sleeper.  In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND projections in a particular category. 

Saves are one of the most frustrating categories for fantasy owners because we are at the mercy of major league managers.  Much of the fun in fantasy preparation is forecasting based on indicators, talent, and predictable skill, yet saves are just as much about opportunity and being in the right place at the right time. 

Below is a rundown of the obvious saves sleepers heading into 2016 – mostly pitchers with a history of closing and at least a fair probability of getting a significant opportunity to close at some point this season.  Also, there are a few less obvious picks to keep an eye on.  Despite our best efforts to predict, there will surely be a few new closers crowned in 2016 that no one expected.  That makes the strategy of dumping saves seem that much more attractive.

The Obvious (Mixed League Worthy)

Joaquin Benoit, Mariners

Benoit is arguably the most obvious name on the list, and looked like the M’s new closer going into 2016 before new GM Jerry Dipoto added Steve Cishek and anointed him the closer this offseason. The veteran Benoit has significant recent experience in the closer role, serving as Detroit’s closer for part of 2013 and San Diego’s closer for part of 2014.

One of baseball’s most effective relievers since emerging from shoulder issues in 2010, Benoit has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in five of the last six seasons. Over that time, he has a cumulative 2.35 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 10.0 K/9. San Diego dumped his contract in mid-November for a pair of minor leaguers, with Benoit set to make $8 million in 2016. Despite his age (38), Benoit’s average fastball remained above 94 mph last season, and he managed the third most appearances of his career.

Of course, Cishek’s effectiveness is likely the most important factor in Benoit’s potential opportunity. The Mariners are betting on the sidearmer rebounding after getting removed as Miami’s closer last season, before getting traded to St. Louis. While Cishek had a 2.31 ERA in 27 appearances with the Cardinals, his K/9 was below 8.0 with both teams last season as he showed significant velocity loss and struggled with his command. Cishek was a legitimately effective closer before last season with 73 saves between 2013-14, and more than one strikeout per inning in four consecutive seasons. Though, last season is concerning enough that Cishek owners will want to stash Benoit as a handcuff.

Carter Capps, Marlins

The Marlins have an obvious strategy of stockpiling flamethrowers for their bullpen. Last season they had four relievers average at least 95 mph on their fastballs, and two more pitchers (Bryan Morris and Jose Urena) fall just below that threshold. That doesn’t even include closer A.J. Ramos, whose fastball averaged less than 93 mph. Their hardest throwing bullpen pitcher was Capps, whose 98 mph fastball average trailed only Aroldis Chapman. Capps made only 30 appearances due to elbow trouble, but managed some truly ridiculous numbers while he was healthy. Among them were a 1.16 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 16.8 K/9, and 8.29 K/BB ratio. His stats were amazing, albeit in a limited sample size.

Ramos did a fine job in the closer role after replacing Steve Cishek, converting 32 saves with a 2.30 ERA. He made notable improvement with his control, lowering his BB/9 from 6.0 in 2014 to 3.3 last season. The past control issues do remain a concern, especially after walking 16 batters in 29.2 innings during the second half of the season. Those control issues make Ramos somewhat vulnerable, and Capps’ upside even without saves makes him an especially attractive closer handcuff.

Jumbo Diaz, Reds

Cincinnati looks to be in full rebuilding mode, trading long-time closer Aroldis Chapman earlier this offseason. The team hasn’t addressed their bullpen this offseason, so the job seems very much up for grabs. While J.J. Hoover does have some brief experience, he failed in the role early in 2014 when Chapman was sidelined. He’s also coming off a not-so-great year for his peripherals, with a career-worst 7.3 K/9 and 1.68 K/BB ratio.

Diaz presents a viable alternative in a very inexperienced bullpen. Aptly nicknamed “Jumbo” with a listed size of 6-4, 280 pounds, Diaz spent most of his season in the majors for the first time, at age 31, and posted a mediocre 4.18 ERA in 61 appearances. Though, Diaz also brought some heat with the best average fastball (97 mph) in the pen from a reliever not named Chapman. He was also very effective after the break, when he did a better job of keeping the ball in the park, posting a 2.65 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in 37.1 innings. Aside from his closer velocity, Diaz also has experience in the minors with 113 career saves. This would seem like a perfect opportunity to inflate Diaz’s value as a closer, and at this point he’s certainly in the conversation for saves in Cincinnati.

Ryan Madson, Athletics

Oakland has invested heavily in relief arms this offseason, adding Madson and John Axford for significant dollars and also acquiring Liam Hendriks from Toronto. The arms give them plenty of backup plans of Sean Doolittle’s arm issues from last year continue to hinder him. While Axford has the greatest and most recent closing experience, I make the case that Madson Is a better option as the closer if Doolittle is hurt.

Madson was more or less out of the game for three straight years following Tommy John surgery in 2012, just after signing a contract to be Cincinnati’s closer. Returning with the Royals last season, Madson’s fastball velocity and superb changeup returned, allowing him to post the second best K/BB ratio of his career (4.14). The return of Madson’s control would seem to make him more reliable than Axford, if healthy, given Axford’s BB/9 above 5.0 in each of the last two seasons and career 4.5 BB/9. While Madson can’t match Axford’s 141 career saves, he has tallied 55 for his career and converted 32 saves for the playoff-bound Phillies in 2011. For what it’s worth, the value of Madson’s contract with Oakland is also more than double that of Axford’s ($22 million to $10 million).

Adam Ottavino, Rockies

Ottavino briefly showed dominance as Colorado’s closer early last season before tearing his elbow ligament, converting three saves in 10 scoreless appearances. He was also one of the team’s most reliable relievers in 2013-14, combining to throw 143.1 innings with a 3.08 ERA and more than one strikeout per inning. Unfortunately, he underwent Tommy John surgery in early May, and will likely be a work in progress this year.

Colorado still extended Ottavino with a three-year, $10.4 million contract this offseason, but the addition of two relievers with closing experience in Chad Qualls and Jason Motte has clouded Ottavino’s role upon his return. Neither Qualls nor Motte had banner years in 2015, and both relievers are getting long in the tooth in their mid-30s. It remains to be seen if either will earn the closer job in spring training, but the seemingly always rebuilding Rockies don’t have anything set in stone entering the year. Ottavino is an obvious stash for saves after the flashes he showed in the closer role last season.

Kevin Quackenbush, Padres

Prior to San Diego’s signing of Fernando Rodney, Quackenbush was in the conversation as the team’s closer. He converted six saves late in 2014, but was pigeon-holed in a setup role last season behind Joaquin Benoit and Craig Kimbrel. With both of those pitchers were traded this offseason, along with hard-throwing Brandon Maurer getting stretched out as a starter, Quackenbush is at least one step closer to saves.

The question is whether Rodney will still be able to shoot invisible arrows at age 39. He lost Seattle’s closer job last season, and posted a 5.68 ERA before showing better success in 14 appearances with the Cubs. His average fastball velocity has been sub-95 mph for two consecutive years, and his 8.3 K/9 last season was the lowest since his 2012 breakout in Tampa Bay. With an incentive-laden one-year deal, the Padres have no reason to stick with Rodney as their closer if he doesn’t look good early in the year. Quackenbush does have to contend with Drew Pomeranz, who got a brief look as Oakland’s closer late last season. Still, Quackenbush has more experience as a closer, both in the minors and the majors, and his peripherals last season (8.9 K/9, 2.90 K/BB K/BB) show a much better pitcher than his 4.01 ERA indicates.

The Less Obvious (Single League Worthy)

Jairo Diaz, Rockies

The veteran Rockies closing candidates, Jason Motte and Chad Qualls, have already been mentioned. They could get the first look for saves this season, but if neither looks right in spring training, Diaz represents an option as a deep sleeper. Acquired last offseason from the Angels for Josh Rutledge, Diaz is the hardest thrower in the Rockies bullpen with a fastball averaging 97 mph. He dominated in 21 appearances last season, with a 2.37 ERA and 3.00 K/BB ratio in 19 innings. While pitching in the minors at hitter-friendly Triple-A Albuquerque, he had issues throwing strikes with 37 walks in 55 innings but did show much better control in 2014 with 20 walks in 64.2 innings, along with 15 saves. The winner of Colorado’s closer competition could just be keeping the seat warm for Adam Ottavino, but Diaz has a chance to put himself in the conversation with a good spring.

Trevor Gott, Nationals

The Nationals bullpen has been one of the more interesting offseason storylines. Many expected the team to part with Jonathan Papelbon after “fighting” Bryce Harper late last season and getting suspended at the end of the year. Instead, it’s Drew Storen that was moved, and it sounds like Papelbon will still be on the roster heading into spring training. One new reliever the Nats added was Gott, who established himself with the Angels last season. He was the main return this offseason for Yunel Escobar, adding at least a capable setup man to the Washington bullpen. Gott’s nasty fastball could make him something much more. He threw the pitch more than 84 percent of the time last season, averaging better than 96 mph and showing above average groundball tendencies. His sub-par 5.1 K/9 was a disappointment, especially since Gott had a 9.5 K/9 in the minors. The minor league strikeout rate adds optimism that he can miss bats in the majors, even without much in the way of a breaking pitch, and the velocity makes Gott a pitcher to watch with Papelbon’s place on the team still on shaky ground.

Chris Withrow, Braves

Returning from Tommy John surgery, Withrow is easy to forget. The former Dodger ended up in the Braves organization in May as part of the Juan Uribe trade, and should be ready to go heading into spring training. Withrow has shown dominating strikeout rates during his major league time over two seasons, with an 11.4 K/9 working off a mid-90’s fastball and slider. His 2.73 ERA in 56 career major league innings is more than adequate, and should be good enough for high-leverage innings in Atlanta’s thin bullpen. Arodys Vizcaino did a fine job establishing himself as the team’s closer late last season, but his history of arm trouble makes Withrow a potential profitable handcuff for a miniscule price.

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