Yahoo Fantasy Hockey: Tempering those Jonathan Drouin expectations
Dobber launched his fantasy hockey website DobberHockey back in 2005 and has been Puck Daddy’s resident fantasy hockey ‘expert’ since 2009.
In September Jonathan Drouin was drafted on average 169th in 30-percent of Yahoo Leagues. Today he’s still owned in 17-percent of leagues as fantasy owners cling to hope. And right now their eyes are lighting up at the prospect of Drouin being traded to another team. He’ll go to this new team, get plunked on the first line with the team’s resident superstar and then Drouin will proceed to end the campaign with 35 points in his last 35 games. Right?
Come on.
Drouin played over 76-perfent of his even-strength shifts with Steven Stamkos and another 12-percent with Nikita Kucherov. He saw 37.9-percent of Tampa’s available power-play time during his 19 games this season with them – and in the first nine games that number was closer to 50-percent. So this magical new team is going to find better linemates than Stamkos?
I predict an immediate splash for Drouin on his new team (whenever that happens) where he’ll light it up for five or six games. But when the adrenalin wears off I don’t expect more than a point every two games. He’s only 20, give the magic a year or two to kick in.
The following is a list of the top players since December 20 (i.e. the past month) in terms of their cap hit per points scored. Courtesy of Frozen Pool. Drouin, by the way, is under the entry-level contract so any points he picks up would be huge in salary leagues.
Studs…
These fellas are wielding a hot stick. Take that into consideration when you go after them in trade talks…
Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington Capitals (11-4-13-17, plus-8, 8 PIM, 27 SOG, 7 PPPts) — Speaking of average draft position, Kuznetsov was picked, on average, 0.5 rounds before Drouin. That’s right – 168.3, on average the 16th round. It’s a good bet the Kuznetsov owner in your league is at or near the top. Kuznetsov has seven assists in his last two games.
Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks (12-9-12-21, plus-9, 4 PIM, 50 SOG) — We’ve been waiting all year for Kane to slow down. Now I just give up. Kane is on pace for 119 points and is currently 15 points ahead of the next guy (Jamie Benn) atop the standings.
Jonathan Quick, Los Angeles Kings (11 GP, 9-1-1, 1.72 GAA, 0.938 SV%) — Along with Braden Holtby and Corey Crawford, Quick is breaking away from the pack. This year’s Big 3.
Duds…
Somebody wake these guys up – their fantasy owners are counting on them…
Alex Galchenyuk, Montreal Canadiens (6-0-0-0, minus-8, 0 PIM, 19 SOG) — As with all the Habs, Galchenyuk is a slump. It’s finally pushed his points-per-game average below last season’s 0.58. He’ll get back up there and set career highs. The Canadiens, much like their dollar, just needs a boost.
Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators (10-1-1-2, minus-10, 6 PIM, 13 SOG, 0 PPPts) — Stone is on pace for 60 points and I can assure you that he’ll finish with more than that. His line (along with Kyle Turris and the injured Mike Hoffman) had been slumping and because of this Stone is undervalued. You should be kicking tires in an effort to acquire him.
Gustav Nyquist, Detroit Red Wings (19-3-3-6, minus-6, 4 PIM, 36 SOG) — Nyquist is a career 14-percent shooter, so scoring just three times on 36 shots is not going to continue. As with Stone above, I urge you to make a few lowball owners to Nyquist’s fantasy owner.
The Wire…
Mostly short-term grabs here, but as always some potential steals…
Vladislav Namestnikov, Tampa Bay Lightning (30%) (6-4-6-10, plus-10, 2 PIM, 11 SOG) – Namestnikov has tremendous chemistry with Steven Stamkos, to the point where Stamkos is now producing the way he was back in the Martin St. Louis days. Namestnikov should be owned in all leagues.
Bo Horvat, Vancouver Canucks (9%) (8-6-4-10, minus-4, 20 SOG, 4 PPPts) – It’s taken awhile, but Horvat’s line (with Sven Baertschi and Radim Vrbata) is really clicking. Too bad Vrbata isn’t getting a piece of that action. Yet.
Andrew Shaw, Chicago Blackhawks (24%) (6-2-5-7, plus-7, 2 PIM, 11 SOG) – Ownership of Shaw has jumped 11-percent since I had him here last week, but he’s worth noting again. He’s still producing numbers and he’s still available in your league. He’s playing with Marian Hossa and Jonathan Toews, what more do you want?
Zack Kassian, Edmonton Oilers (1%) (4-1-1-2, even, 6 PIM, 8 SOG, 18 Hits) – Absolutely 100-percent must be owned if your league has Hits as a category. And he’s also a big help if your league counts PIM. I can’t speak to how the offense will go – he could do reasonably well. But if he doesn’t, those physical categories are guaranteed gold. Last game he was lining up with Nail Yakupov.
Kerby Rychel, Columbus Blue Jackets (0%) (5-1-3-4, plus-3, 2 PIM, 11 SOG) – When the Blue Jackets traded away Ryan Johansen it was as if their forwards forgot how to score. Brandon Saad has two points in seven games, Cam Atkinson has one point in six, Scott Hartnell one in five before getting scratched. With Nick Foligno on the shelf, the Jackets have no choice but to look to the 21-year-old Rychel.
Shea Theodore, Anaheim Ducks (1%) (4-1-3-4, plus-2, 6 BLKS, 5 SOG) – Coach Bruce Boudreau has been sticking with Theodore through thick and thin. It took him eight games before he got his first point and through it all he was given the full confidence of the coach: ice time, PP time. Now it’s paying off. He’s even running the top power play and has pushed Sami Vatanen to the second unit.
Dmitry Orlov, Washington Capitals (3%) (5-1-2-3, plus-3, 4 PIM, 12 SOG) – Matt Niskanen is flourishing while John Carlson is out, but Orlov has been pretty consistent regardless of Carlson’s status. That means that while Orlov won’t save you with an incredible hot streak, he also won’t kill you with any kind of sustained slump.
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