Forget the future: Justin Upton makes the Tigers contenders now
The Detroit Tigers entered the offseason in a difficult situation. The club finished last in the American League Central, winning just 74 games. On top of that, the team’s core was starting to look old, and moves made at the deadline seemed to indicate a rebuild was looming.
That was not the case. The first indication that the team would attempt to contend in 2016 came early, as the club inked Jordan Zimmermann to a five-year deal. The team made modest upgrades elsewhere, trading for outfielder Cameron Maybin and closer Francisco Rodriguez.
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Those additions weren’t enough, though. Coming into Monday, the Tigers were projected to win 79 games according to FanGraphs. The team had certainly improved, but not enough to be considered true contenders.
By Monday night, that changed. Tigers owner Mike Ilitch made perhaps the boldest move of the offseason, signing outfielder Justin Upton to a six-year, $132.75 million deal. While the move invites plenty of criticism about the the Tigers long-term plan, it makes the club a contender right now, and that’s all that matters.
Upton is an exceptionally dependable offensive force. The 28-year-old holds a career .271/.352/.473 slash line over nine seasons. He’s averaged 26 home runs over 162 games according to Baseball-Reference. There’s no doubt Upton makes the Tigers a much better team in 2016.
Does he improve them enough, though? Following the addition, the Tigers are now projected to win 82 games according to FanGraphs. While that doesn’t seem like a lot, it puts the team in wild card territory.
Think about the current state of the AL. The Kansas City Royals still seem like one of the better teams around, even after losing Johnny Cueto. The Toronto Blue Jays also look strong, even though David Price is gone. The Houston Astros managed to make slight upgrades while keeping their core intact.
Those three teams might be the strongest in the league at the moment, but there are considerable questions facing the rest of the clubs. The Boston Red Sox made big additions this offseason, but won just 78 games last season. The New York Yankees could contend again, but rely on an aging core. The Texas Rangers and Cleveland Indians could take steps forward, but neither team has been all that active this offseason.
The wild card, especially in the AL, is up for grabs. That much is true whether you look at every team’s roster or whether you rely on projections.
As of right now, FanGraphs projects the team with the fifth-best record in the AL to win 84 games. That’s a small enough margin of error that you could argue the Tigers have already put themselves in the conversation as wild card contenders. If Victor Martinez finds his old form, or Anibal Sanchez is a little better, it’s easy to see the Tigers beating their projection by a game or two. That’s all it would take.
There is, of course, a scenario where Detroit makes a big addition at the trade deadline as well. Considering how motivated Ilitch is to win a championship no matter what the cost, that can’t be ruled out. If the Tigers are hanging around in July, they could continue to go all-in by picking up one of the best players on the trade market.
There’s considerable risk here, of course. Victor Martinez looked cooked last season, Miguel Cabrera has dealt with injuries as he’s aged and Justin Verlander is no longer a perennial Cy Young contender. Zimmermann is solid, but he’s not going to replace David Price, the Tigers ace last year. Detroit entered 2015 with an equally strong club and still turned in an awful season. The same thing could happen again.
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If it does, it won’t be for lack of trying. The Tigers core is aging, and the team’s window is closing rapidly. Ilitch realizes that, and is willing to do whatever is takes to win a championship before it’s too late. While that’s going to lead to some embarrassing contracts and criticism down the road, it makes the team relevant now.
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Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik
