Around the League: Overvalued Players: NL Central
We recently finished hitting the fantasy risers for each division, players whose arrows are pointed up heading into 2016. Now we turn our attention to those players who may provide more sizzle than steak for fantasy owners in the upcoming season. First was the National League East. Now it’s time to turn our attention to the NL Central.
We’re getting closer to pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, so be sure to keep refreshing Rotoworld’s constantly-updating player news page for all the latest. And while you’re at it, follow @Rotoworld_BB and @RyanPBoyer if you are on Twitter.
Khris Davis, OF, Brewers
Power is the name of Davis’ game. He’s slugged 60 home runs over 1,142 plate appearances to begin his career, or 30 for every 571 plate appearances. Davis finished off his 2015 campaign with a flourish, smacking 20 home runs over the final two months of the season. He wound up with a career-high 27 longballs last year, a total good enough to tie him for 10th in the National League. The 28-year-old has proven capable of carrying a fantasy squad when he’s hot.
The problem with Davis is that his bat is cold more often than it’s hot. The outfielder was batting just .236/.323/.424 with seven home runs over his first 63 games last season before the hot streak began, and this is the same guy that put up a sub-.300 on-base percentage in 2014. Of players that had at least 400 plate appearances last season, only 12 had a higher strikeout percentage than Davis. His average is going to be poor and he doesn’t run, so all of Davis’ fantasy value is derived from his power. There are similar potential one-category talents that you can find many rounds later than where you’ll have to take Davis.
Devin Mesoraco, C, Reds
Those who used a relatively high draft pick on Mesoraco last spring following his breakout 2014 season were left disappointed, to say the least. Mesoraco suffered a hip injury early on in the campaign and tried unsuccessfully to play through the ailment before finally undergoing season-ending surgery in late June. The Reds’ catcher struggled mightily at the plate when on the field, sporting an ugly .178/.275/.244 batting line with no homers over 23 contests.
The Reds and Mesoraco are saying all the right things about the catcher’s rehab, as both contend that the 27-year-old will be ready to roll for the beginning of spring training. Perhaps that will be the case, but I have some serious worries about Mesoraco’s ability to stay healthy and be effective in 2016. Hip surgery is a big deal for any hitter, let alone a catcher who squats for a living and a guy who relies on his legs for his biggest asset (his power). I could very well wind up being wrong about Mesoraco, as there’s a chance he’ll avoid the disabled list and return to being one of the best power options at his position. However, I’m just not comfortable drafting him where he’s likely to come off the board.
John Lackey, SP, Cubs
Lackey was able to net a multi-year contract this winter despite being 37 years of age, and the reason for that is because he had arguably the best season of his career in 2015. The veteran right-hander was superb for the Cardinals, putting up a 2.77 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 175/53 K/BB ratio over 218 innings. The question then, of course, is how likely is it that he’ll be able to repeat his efforts? Not terribly.
One reason for Lackey’s likely decline is simply his age, but that’s not it. The righty had an unsustainable 82.6 percent strand rate last season, which trailed only Zack Greinke among all starters in baseball. He’s just not going to be that lucky again with runners on. Another reason for caution is that Lackey will go from pitching his home games at Busch Stadium — where he held a 1.91 ERA over 24 starts (including the postseason) – to Wrigley Field, which at times can be very unforgiving for hurlers. Chances are Lackey will solid in 2016, but he’s probably going to get picked too soon in your league.
Jhonny Peralta, SS, Cardinals
The Cardinals have gotten their money’s worth so far out of the four-year, $53 million investment they made in Peralta two winters ago, as he’s batted .269/.335/.427 while averaging 19 homers and 73 RBI in his two seasons. Those are numbers you’ll gladly take from your shortstop. However, after a terrific first half (.298/.355/.473) that saw the infielder earn his third trip to the All-Star Game, things went south. Peralta was horrible for the Cards down the stretch, batting only .235/.299/.299 over his final 63 games before picking up just two hits in 14 playoff at-bats.
Peralta will turn 34 in May, and while I’m not saying last year’s second half was a sign that he’s over the hill, it’s something to think about. The Cardinals certainly are, as they invested significant resources in Jedd Gyorko to serve as an active backup infielder. Maybe Peralta seeing more days off will ultimately be better for him, conserving his energy in hopes of avoiding another late-season slide. However, we can’t overlook the fact that this is a guy who is entering his mid-30s and who is poised to receive more rest.
Francisco Cervelli, C, Pirates
As it turns out, the Pirates didn’t wind up missing Russell Martin last season as much as they surely thought they would. Cervelli proved to be up to the task and then some in his first season as a full-time starter, sporting a .295/.370/.401 batting line with seven homers and 43 RBI. The Pirates liked the catcher’s defense and his average and on-base percentage easily topped all backstops not named Buster Posey.
Although he never got to play regularly prior to last season, Cervelli was a career .278/.348/.381 hitter going into 2015 across 785 plate appearances. So, perhaps we shouldn’t have been terribly surprised that he hit as well as he did. The soon-to-be 30-year-old makes a lot of contact, giving him a chance to maintain a nice average. However, a .359 BABIP is simply unlikely to be repeated. That’s a major concern, as virtually all of Cervelli’s fantasy value is derived from his batting average. Something else to consider is that Cervelli managed to stay pretty healthy in 2015 after a litany of ailments in New York. In all likelihood, the injury bug will be due to bite again in 2016.
Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds
Phillips managed to cobble together a renaissance season in 2015 after years of trending in the wrong direction. The 34-year-old put up the second-base average (.294) of his career, ranked sixth among second basemen with 70 RBI and, perhaps most surprisingly, finished with his highest stolen base total (23) since 2009. All of this led to Phillips winding up as the third-best fantasy second baseman behind Dee Gordon and Jose Altuve.
Simply put, a repeat season just isn’t likely to be in the cards. Phillips did show an out-of-nowhere significant improvement with his contact rate, but a big drop closer to his career .273 average is likely. It’s also extremely unlikely that Phillips will run as often and have as high of a success rate as he did in 2015 considering that he’ll turn 35 before the All-Star break. I wouldn’t want to rely on the veteran as my starting fantasy second baseman for the upcoming season.
Jaime Garcia, SP, Cardinals
Out of sight, out of mind. That’s basically what the Cardinals (and fantasy owners) had to be thinking about Garcia heading into last season, as he had dealt with shoulder issues for three years and had thoracic outlet surgery in July of 2014. But, instead of that operation ostensibly ending his career as it has for many other pitchers, Garcia’s somehow stayed pain-free in 2015 (other than a groin injury) and he had a fantastic campaign, posting a 2.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 97/30 K/BB ratio over 129 2/3 innings.
Garcia has always pitched well when healthy, but he benefitted from some good luck in 2015 with a .270 BABIP and 78.1 percent strand rate. If we count on some regression to the mean in those areas, the left-hander’s ERA and WHIP in 2016 figure to be closer to his career marks heading into 2015 (3.50 and 1.31, respectively). With a middling strikeout rate (he had a career-low 6.7 K/9 last season), Garcia doesn’t have a ton to offer fantasy owners if he’s not experiencing some batted ball luck. And that’s even if he stays healthy, which obviously isn’t a good bet.
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